How Far Would You Go?
The Hendrickson/Hall for Navarro/Seo deal this week officially kicked off the Dodgers Summer Improvement Campaign '06. No doubt the Blue had to make a move, no doubt Navarro was no longer considered the catcher of the future. He could go without much risk of serious impact in the long term. But while Navarro may not be L.A.'s best prospect anymore, he's still a pretty good prospect at an important, talent-poor position. The Rays got some value in exchange for a pitcher in Hendrickson whose career pedigree (5.01 ERA, .291 BAA) doesn't exactly have the bust makers in Cooperstown memorizing the contours of his face. It was a nice first move for the Dodgers, but it shouldn't be their last. Think of it as a midafternoon snack. Something to tide you over until dinner, but doesn't spoil the appetite.
What the trade did show me was that in this pitching thin market, any available arm will come at a price, and if that arm were attached to say, Dontrelle Willis, Barry Zito, Livan Hernandez, or John Smoltz, the cost could kick off a new round of Congressional hearings- this time to root out extortion in baseball. So here's the question- How far would you be willing to go to improve the Dodgers this year?
Answering that question depends entirely on how good you think the team is and how realistic a title run, or at least one deep into the playoffs, actually could be. The last thing the Dodgers want to do is make a P.R. trade along the lines of the Mets giving up Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano*, just to show fans, "Hey, we're trying!" But if the opportunity is there, aren't the Dodgers obligated to go for it, even if it costs down the road?
*The only people in New York who like Isiah Thomas right now are the Mets, because when Zeke took Rolando Balkman with the 20th pick yesterday, it bumped that trade off the Worst Move Ever! list, at least temporarily.
So how good are the Dodgers? As constructed, I still believe they'll win the NL West. Someone has to, it's in the rulebook. Bad as they've been this month, the Blue haven't exactly been punished by their divisional brethren. Even Arizona, who have been as bad as any team in baseball over the last few weeks, has only dropped a few games in the standings. If this were the NFL, they'd call it parity. But they're right now the Dodgers aren't good enough to threaten for a title. Add another dominating arm, and not only does the division look good, but there's a strong possibility they could move past the first round. The NLDS, only five games, is all about starting pitching. Starters can win those nearly by themselves. Line up Zito/Willis, Lowe, and Penny, and it's very likely to be as good or better than anything they'll face, including whatever the Mets throw at them.
And it's not like the National League is full of excellent teams. Get past the first round, and who knows what can happen? Do I think the Dodgers are the best team in baseball? No. Do I think they can win a World Series? Probably not, or not without a lot of roster augmentation surgery (about the only augmentation that can't be completed in Beverly Hills). In general, the best teams usually win in the end. But honestly, the NL is so weak that you don't look at any teams and think there's no way the Dodgers can beat them. Once you're through the velvet ropes and into the party, anything can happen.
So who stays? Who goes? Would I move Bills and Kemp for (assuming he's even available, and I'm not buying it yet) Dontrelle? Yes. Willis is young, proven, and at least for a couple of years, reasonably priced. We're talking about a potential top-of-the-rotation guy for the next six or seven years, plus a great draw at the park. He's a ton of fun to watch. That to me is a no-brainer. Zito is a more interesting proposition. Is he good enough to be a difference maker in the pennant race and into the postseason? Absolutely. On the other hand, he's a free agent. If the Dodgers pull the trigger, it doesn't work, and Zito walks, that turns into about as bad a trade as can be made. If the Dodgers could sign him — be ready for a Zito-fueled ticket increase should it happen — that's another story. We're talking about a guy with a 94-57 career record who won't be 30 until May 2008. But Zito will get every bit and more of the $55 million graced upon A.J. Burnett last winter.
If I thought they'd sign him, or at least commit to doing it (show me the books, Mr. McCourt!), I'd probably pull the trigger on that one too. Prospects are just that — prospects. In general, if you can turn them into top flight players in the prime of their careers, you do it. That, by the way, is a clue about how much I would give up for a guy on the down side like Maddux.
Of course, I just threw out Billingsley and Kemp as a hypothetical. There's also Martin, Ethier, Guzman, Loney, Aybar, LaRoche, Hanrahan, Hoolrebeke, Kershaw, etc. for teams to add to their wish list. Who would you be willing to move? For what in return?
As I said, you don't get something for nothing, and there will be serious competition this year for the best guys.
—BK
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Martin is out of the question, especially now that Navarro has been traded.
I would rather keep Kemp than Guzman. Bills AND Guzman for Willis? I don’t know about that one.
Willis is the only pitcher I would really try to get, as far as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher is concerned. Smoltz would cost too much (both money-wise and prospect-wise).
I guess Livan would be another option. He eats up innings and is a workhorse. But I wouldn’t give up more than a top prospect for him.
How about Loney, Guzman, and Aybar for Willis? Hmmmm….yeah, I would pull the trigger.
We need to resign Nomar. I don’t care that we have $13 million wrapped up on Furcal, $11 million on Princess Drew, and $10 million on Kent. Gagne is coming off the books (either he’s gone, done, or will come at a very discounted price). Odalis’ salary will be “off the books”. We can afford to resign Nomar. Besides, McCourt would be afraid of the PR hit he would take if he didn’t resign Nomar.
Resign Lowe and Penny to extensions. Do we have to go over the whole “pitching is at a premium” discussion? We don’t have squat in our farm system as far a pitching is concerned. Resign them to longer extensions, NOW!!
Don’t trade for Zito. Billy is probably ticked at Colletti for stealing Ethier. Billy will ask for the farm. Zito will cost us a lot right away. Besides, I don’t like “Moneyball” pitchers, HAHA!
Develop Bills. Send him back down to the minors and let him gain control over his pitches. He’s our only pitching prospect. “Prospects being unproven or not”, he’s our only shot at developing a pitcher of our own.
Here’s hoping that Princess Drew opts out of her contract after “taking her game to another level”.
Posted by: LoLo | June 29, 2006 at 06:59 PM
If the dodgers had the pitching they had in 2003 or 2004, this team could contend for a championship. Without it they will go nowhere.
I'm not sure even if they traded for another top tier starter they would have enough to contend with the bullpen in shambles as well.
We seem to be in good shape with position players. Maybe make trades for minor league pitching and hope they develop. We don't have enough to offer to fix all our pitching woes right now, unless Coletti is a magician. I don't think I'd trade Kemp, Either, or Martin, anyone else in the minors is ok with me including Bills. Especially to get a top starter.
I guess it's time to look to the future and hopefully it won't take too long. If they can stay competitive meanwhile all the better.
I can't remember when the Dodger pitching situation has ever looking this glum.
Posted by: Andy B | June 29, 2006 at 08:10 PM
i think to get dontrelle or zito they should give up what they need to within reason. if there is a chance to get either they should make a strong push. i would think they could resign zito if they got him.
i dont think they will give up kemp or martin and i dont think they should but i would say the rest of the kids are on the table. coletti was on i think mason and ireland show recently and he was saying why he isnt interested in sending all our young talent away but he did say he would be willing to shake free one or two prospects for a top notch pitcher. i would love to see either dontrelle or zito in dodger blue
also is vin scully ok, it seems like he didnt make the trip to minnesota
Posted by: charlie bucket | June 29, 2006 at 08:38 PM
At this point, I believe the only rookie/prospect considered untouchable is Russell Martin. Kemp is most likely the biggest chip in the Dodger's stack, but I think Colletti would be an idiot to move him.
That leaves Ethier, Aybar, Guzman, Loney, Laroche, Repko, Billingsley, possibly Broxton and Izturis as valuable trade commodities. Some of the pitchers in the lower minors, like Hanrahan, Hoorelbeke, Muegge come with more risk, but also have some potential. I would even throw Kuo in the trade mix as well. Even though he's been so terrible that I sometimes wish for Hamulack to come back to LA, a hard throwing young lefty might spice things up just enough for GMs to pull the trigger.
Since we actually need pitching, I probably wouldn't move Bills or Broxton. Ethier and Kemp look like the future outfield and heart of the order, so neither of them should pack their bags either. That leaves Guzman, Loney, Laroche, Repko, and Aybar/Izturis to deal. I say deal up to three of those position players along with some lesser pieces if that will land a solid starter and setup reliever for the Dodgers.
Who would I try to get? Anyone in the Angels rotation (except for the elder Weaver), and either Wickman or Mota from Cleveland would be the biggest bang for the buck.
Posted by: Makoto Ueno | June 29, 2006 at 09:49 PM
As much as I love winning, I'm having a lot of fun rooting for the rookies. Ethier and Martin are very solid in my book. Quality at-bats from those guys. Kemp on the other hand I'm not sure about. He's had some monster power, but when he's not making contact, he's wiffing at a lot of stuff. I know he's young, but he clearly doesn't have the strike zone knowledge that say Martin does.
Posted by: Nathan | June 30, 2006 at 12:40 AM
I'd consider Martin, Billingsley, Kemp, Broxton and LaRoche untouchable. As far as potential targets, how about Livan Hernandez or Tony Armas Jr. of Washington or Kip Wells of Pittsburgh? Those guys are not top of the line pitchers (although a healthy Hernandez is pretty good), but they'd eat up some innings and wouldn't cost as much as trading for Willis, Zito, etc.
Posted by: Tim H | June 30, 2006 at 01:42 AM
For a quality pitcher? Russell Martin has to go.
mike
Posted by: Michael Teniente | June 30, 2006 at 03:17 AM
Charlie Bucket,
Vinny doesn’t make “long trips” with the Dodgers anymore. He will travel to do games against our division rivals (Padres, G-nats, Diamondbacks) and any other close inter-league games. He started doing this a few years ago since he is getting up there in age and is leaning towards spending more time with his family rather than making long road trips he used. I consider it a blessing that he is willing to do the amount of games he does do.
On special occasions he will make the long road trips. For example, he made the historic trip to Boston when the Dodgers played there a couple of years back. It would be safe to assume that he will make the trip to the Bronx when the Dodgers play there ?next year?. I’m not sure I would put the Metrodome in the same league as Fenway or the “House that Ruth built”, HAHA!!
But BK seems to like the Metrodome, HAHA!!
Posted by: LoLo | June 30, 2006 at 03:43 AM
Why can’t we be like the Marlins?: Beckett, Penny, Burnett, and Willis. Now that is a strong starting 4. Heck, I’d be willing to make Odalis the 5th starter of that rotation, HAHAHA!!
Actually, we don’t have to; we have Lowe. Sorry Odalis, HAHA!!
We need to hire whoever drafted those gems for the Marlins. Can you imagine if the Marlins had the means to keep those players? Yikes!!!!
Would I spend $50-$60 million on that rotation to keep them Dodgers (if we would have drafted them)? Oh heck yeah!! In a heartbeat! We could have a platoon of Hee Sop Choi’s as our position players and STILL contend every year!
Posted by: LoLo | June 30, 2006 at 04:25 AM
To me, Martin, Bills, Broxton, Kemp, and Ethier shouldn't be touched. We NEED to keep any developing pitchers. Martin is our only catcher of the future, and Kemp and Ethier...well maybe i've just grown attached.
Martinez is in the middle. He's proved himself valuable at multiple spots on the field. But if we can get a good pitcher for him, I'd spring the trade.
All other prospects that we've heard of or not are up for grabs.
Posted by: chucky | June 30, 2006 at 10:58 AM
See if the Angels will take OP for Jeff Weaver straight up. Both suck right now and the salaries are very similar. They both could use a change of scenery and Weaver has a better attitude. Weaver came on in the second half last year and pitched well. Besides, Weaver is only signed for this year and we can unload OP and his 2007 salary. We may have to throw in a low level prospect to consumate the deal. Its worth a shot as there is really nothing to lose. Each team is probably looking at releasing them and getting nothing. I believe we can win the NL West with our team right now so there is no need to panic. Bills and Kemp need to go back to AAA and prepare for Sept. and should not be traded. Martin is untouchable. Unless Willis is available we should not sell the farm. I would not give up the future for a rent a player that may be gone after the season or cost a fortune to resign.
Luckily we are in the NL West and 87 wins will probably win it. I'll take it after last years debacle. Go Dodgers!
Posted by: Jim | June 30, 2006 at 12:10 PM