Baseball Prospectus Checks in on the Draft

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus checks in on the lot of high school pitchers taken in the '06 draft. Right now, Clayton Kershaw looks like the cream of the crop (five walks against 54 strikeouts is a tidy little number), and while Bryan Morris isn't exactly setting the world on fire, he's not getting totally shelled, either. Get those hit numbers down, kid.

—BK

High School Pitchers

Pick, Player, Team            LVL   ERA   IP    H   BB   SO   EXP
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7. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers    R   1.95  37.0  28    5   54    +
12. Kasey Kiker, Rangers      SS   4.15  43.1  35   32   41
16. Jeremy Jeffress, Brewers   R   5.68  31.2  28   24   33    -
18. Kyle Drabek, Phillies      R   7.71  23.1  33   11   14    -
22. Colton Willems, Nationals  R   3.38  16    23    3    8    -
26. Bryan Morris, Dodgers      R   4.76  56.2  61   34   74

This group is the only disappointment so far, but there are two mitigating factors. First off, Clayton Kershaw, according to those who have seen him, has enough potential to makes up for any failures otherwise. Secondly, the rest of these guys are power arms (finesse high school pitchers don't go in the first round) with the ability to turn things around.

As you can see by the numbers, Kershaw has been outstanding by any measurement, and the stuff matches the performance. Kiker gets the same mulligan Sapp gets for pitching in the Northwest League — other than the walks, he's held his own against players mostly two to three years older than he is. If you remove Kershaw from the equation, the one thing the group has in common is control problems, except for Willems who has also given up many hits with few strikeouts in a small sample.

Few walks and few strikeouts are a much less attractive indicator than a high total of both, although it is a small sample and he was shut down with shoulder fatigue. I include Morris here because while he was drafted out of a junior college, he's just 19, so he's closer to a high school pick than a college one. His statistical profile is more unique and more difficult to assess as he's allowed a high number of baserunners while striking out nearly 12 per nine innings.