Playoff Rotations

Dodgers

1. Lowe          3.77
2. Penny         3.81
3. Maddux        3.87
4. Billingsley   5.36
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TOTAL            4.09

Chad Billingsley is a 1.2 IP, six-run disaster waiting to happen, but apart from that this group is solid. Not that the Dodgers have too many alternatives to Billingsley, unless they want to do something creative like a tandem start involving Jonathan Broxton. A three-man rotation is probably out of the question, with an aging Greg Maddux and fragile Brad Penny in the group.

Padres

1. Peavy        3.13
2. Young        4.35
3. Williams     4.72
4. Hensley      4.38
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TOTAL           4.06

Speaking of forgiving, QERA doesn’t have any problem with Jake Peavy, who it rates as the third-best starting pitcher in the playoffs behind Santana and Carpenter. Chris Young’s numbers might be skewed here, because of his extreme flyball tendencies and his home ballpark. If the Padres lose the division to the Dodgers, and have to settle for the wild card, it might make sense to hold Young back until Game Three, when he’d be pitching at PETCO.

Phillies

1. Hamels        3.32
2. Lieber        3.89
3. Myers         3.44
4. Moyer         4.67
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TOTAL            3.75

Brett Myers is scheduled to start on Sunday, a game which will be a must-win for the Phillies under most scenarios in which they make the playoffs. I have listed him third here, but he might not be ready to go until Game Four of the LDS, and things could get further screwed up if Cole Hamels is needed to start a one-game playoff against the Dodgers or Padres. Nevertheless, this is a good and underrated rotation, and Hamels-Myers rates as the best 1-2 punch going unless the Astros can make the playoffs.

Cardinals

1. Carpenter     2.99
2. Suppan        4.72
3. Weaver        4.46
4. Reyes         4.47
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TOTAL            4.08

We have a Johan Santana Lite situation here, in that the Cardinals pretty much need to find a way to get Chris Carpenter as many starts as possible. Carpenter pitched last night, and unfortunately for Tony La Russa, it looks like the Cardinals’ Sunday game might be meaningful, forcing Carpenter to take his turn and limiting him to one game in the LCS. Under that scenario, the Cards are a great candidate to get swept.

Astros

1. Oswalt        3.34
2. Pettitte      3.69
3. Clemens       3.27
4. Hirsh         5.69
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TOTAL            3.84

There’s no discussion of the Astros' prospective playoff rotation anywhere on the Internet, for the obvious reason that there was no discussion of the Astros making the playoffs until approximately 36 hours ago. In any event, it will be the same shtick as last year, with the dominant front three and Jason Hirsh serving in the Brandon Backe Memorial fourth starter/enthusiastic bench guy role. Note that QERA is forgiving of Andy Pettitte, who has been widely perceived as having an off-year--you can bet that the Mets are pulling for the Cardinals.

Mets

Glavine        4.26
Martinez       3.25
Hernandez      3.47
Trachsel       5.76
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TOTAL          4.07

I'm putting Pedro Martinez in the #2 spot as a sort of hedge against his continued injury problems, but the real issue is in the back end of the rotation, where indications are that Willie Randolph will go with Steve Trachsel rather than John Maine. This is for no reason other than Trachsel’s cagey veteran-ness and the fact that he’s somehow managed to compile 15 wins on the season in spite of a 4.97 ERA behind a great defense in a pitcher’s park and awful peripherals. Remember the Maine! On the bright side, Orlando Hernandez has pitched very well since joining the Mets, and is no stranger to postseason success.

Overall standings

Phillies        3.75
Astros          3.84
Twins           3.86
Padres          4.06
Mets            4.07
Cardinals       4.08
Dodgers         4.09
Yankees         4.13
Tigers          4.14
A’s             4.23

One problem with a quick-and-dirty metric is that it's, well, quick and dirty. Although strikeout rate is not very dependent on park effects, it is dependent on league effects, and the National League teams should probably be docked 10-15 points because they don’t have to face DHs. Either way, there is no clearly dominant group of playoff starters this year, but the Astros, Phillies and Twins come closest.