On the Rise?

"Two years ago, the Padres won the division with an 82-80 record, and the five teams were outscored by a combined 498 runs.

Now fast-forward to 2007. The Dodgers are coming off a year in which they had the best run differential in the league (+69), the Pads were third (+52) and led the league in earned run average, and the Rockies outscored their opponents by one run and ranked seventh in the league.

Next, bring Randy Johnson back to Arizona; move Jason Schmidt into the Los Angeles rotation with Derek Lowe and Brad Penny; put Barry Zito in San Francisco with Matt Cain, Noah Lowry and Jonathan Sanchez; and add Greg Maddux to the Padres' rotation.

OK, none of these moves is equivalent to bringing David Beckham to the Galaxy. But in a division that boasted half of the six best ERAs in the league (San Diego, L.A., Arizona) and where the Padres, Dodgers and Giants all have distinctly pitching-oriented parks, the shift has clearly been toward pitching. 'It's clearly becoming a pitching-oriented division,' says Dodger GM Ned Colletti.

Arizona's Josh Byrnes agrees: 'I think it's very clear that the teams in this division are building with pitching. Most of it is obvious, but don't underestimate Colorado, especially their bullpen. We have the most offense-friendly home park, but we're trying to build as much pitching as possible to go with our young divisional talent.' "

Granted, things always look rosier in January for some teams than they will in August, but when "Colorado" and "pitching" can be put in the same sentence without inducing peals of laughter, that's a sign of progress.  Gammons goes on to talk about the Dodgers:

"Then one looks at the Dodgers and their pitching now that they signed Schmidt and Randy Wolf to go with Lowe, Penny and either Chad Billingsley or Hong-Chih Kuo. Grady Little's patience helped Takashi Saito turn into a 24-for-26 closer with 107 strikeouts in 79 innings at the age of 36, and if Saito -- who was the equivalent of a walk-on -- goes back to what he was in Japan, Jonathan Broxton is in the wings, Billingsley could become a reliever, Yhency Brazoban is coming back and there is Jonathan Meloan coming out of the lower minors after punching out 91 in 52 innings.

They will pitch, and while Colletti took some heat for the money he gave Juan Pierre, at the time the Dodgers had one outfielder. Now, they have Pierre and Rafael Furcal at the top of the order. They have James Loney and Nomar Garciaparra at first; Jeff Kent at second; Wilson Betemit, Andy LaRoche and Garciaparra at third; Russell Martin and Mike Lieberthal catching; and an outfield combination of Pierre, Luis Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Garciaparra and Marlon Anderson. 'We have some flexibility, so we don't ask too much of our better young players,' says Colletti."

The Pads were decent last year, and have added to their pitching depth to what was already a good staff.  Going into '06, I picked the Diamondbacks as a team to watch, and for a while they made me look smart.  Then they stopped.  I've written that adding Randy Johnson at this point in his career isn't the big deal move it would have been a few years ago, but it certainly won't hurt anything, and because Arizona is getting better, I'll go ahead and pick them again as the NL West team to make "the leap" in '07.  I doubt I'd get much arguement from Gammons.

"The Diamondbacks are one of the most fascinating teams in the game and, by adding Johnson, Livan Hernandez and Doug Davis in with Brandon Webb, they have a veteran presence for their young pitchers and position players. There was consternation in the Valley when Gonzalez and Shawn Green were let go, but their outfield defense changed dramatically. With Chris Young in center, Carlos Quentin in right and the Eric Byrnes/Jeff Davanon combination in left, the balls stopped going up the gaps in September; Arizona's pitching had the lowest opposing OPS in that month in the majors. The D-Backs believe Young is going to be a great player. Stephen Drew and Orlando Hudson in the middle of the infield can be dynamic players. They have two extraordinary young catchers in Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero, and everyone expects Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy to hit at the infield corners.

If the bullpen holds together, the Diamondbacks can be pretty good, and their fans can have Johnson's countdown to 300 and revel in his place in baseball history."

They won't be good enough to beat the Dodgers, should the Blue hold together, but a Wild Card spot is certainly possible.  Either way, among L.A., San Diego, Arizona, a "Hey, we don't suck anymore!" Colorado squad, and the Giants (they won't be good, but they'll be better than most bottom-dwelling groups), the days of treating the NL West like baseball's leper colony are over.

BK