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Good Penny, Bad Penny

Peter Gammons recently put together a list of pitchers who, in his estimation, would seriously boost his team's chances of winning by making 30-plus starts. It shouldn't really surprise anyone to see Brad Penny on that list. For those of you without the ESPN.com Insider account, I excerpt here:

"There is little doubt that Penny has No. 1 starter stuff, and the fact that his starts (24, 29, 34) and innings (143, 175 1/3, 189) have ascended is a good omen for the Dodgers. A 20-game-winning Penny takes a lot of pressure off all the young pitching creeping toward the L.A. rotation."

Twenty game-winning Penny?  Slow down, Peter. I'll take 14-16, especially if those wins are spread neatly throughout the season, rather than last year's Jekyll and Hyde routine--death to hitters in the first half, death to bullpens in the second (how'd he win six after the break, anyway?). 

So why Penny, as opposed to Lowe or Schmidt? My guess is it's because a healthy, quality Penny gives the Dodgers a third 1- or 1A-type starter. You know what Schmidt and Lowe bring. Penny has the stuff, but not the track record of consistent performance. But we all saw how good he's capable of being in the first half. Penny needs more of that, and more time on the treadmill to help him get deeper into games (for every seventh inning he finishes, maybe they can give him a gift certificate to Pink's or something, redeemable AFTER the season). Assuming a healthy staff (I know, I know), Good Penny may very well give the Dodgers the best rotation in the NL, possibly the bigs. It would make either Billingsley or Kuo your sixth starter. Even with his inexperience, think how many teams would jump at the chance to get my guy Kuo* into their starting staff? 

The best thing Good Penny does, though, is provide Ned Colletti with what every GM wants when he wakes up in the morning--flexibility. It gives them six starters, plus all the serviceable guys (Hendrickson, Stults, Dessens, whatever) who can get you through a season then sit in the playoffs. With that extra arm, Colletti can find more offense if the need arises. He can trade the spare parts for bullpen help, if need be. Other than pure power, solid starting may be the most sought after commodity on the market. It may be the biggest. 

Frustrating as Penny was last year, the Dodgers still got into the playoffs. This year, he's shaping up to be their most pivotal wild card.**

*Yes, I saw enough of Kuo to really dig the guy. Rocket left-handed arm? He just ate people up when he was on, and provides a totally different dimension to the rotation. Opposing hitters don't see a lot of guys like him.

**Until I think harder about this, and decide someone else is the most pivotal wild card.

BK

Comments

BK,

I completely agree. Penny could have the potential to be the/a ace on this staff. He needs to show up 20 pounds lighter, in shape, and with a change in the attitude, and he could blow us all away this season. In regards to Kuo, I like him a lot. I love his delivery, and the way the ball zips out of his hand when he is on...very fun to watch and quite unique.

BK:

Funny Gammons should bring up Penny. Was thinking about his status the other day. Honestly I have dropped down from thinking the Dodgers should trade him no matter what. Putting him in the #3 spot really gives the Dodgers at minimum three guys who can win at least 15-games. Then there is Billz and Wolf.

And you are dead right that Penny is a huge key to everything. Of course the other starters are...who knows Schmidt or Wolf could blow up in spring training. And given the Dodgers history with FA pitchers and injuries that is a distinct possibility. This makes Penny who is durable season wise though he is lacking in the focus and conditioning to stay in games long enough to be a guy people are comfortable with.

I seriously think unless the Dodgers could add a guy like D.Willis then they need to keep Penny and Billz AND Kuo. Trading any combo of those guys would seem to create a hole in what was otherwise the teams strength.

I just have to say I really like the overall make up for this season's team. Sure there is no PROVEN power guy. But all those proven power guys out there were once unproven themselves. Basically if it was me I would just play this hand and see where it goes. Colletti has shown he will try and fill holes as they crop up or if something does not go as hoped.

Like I said I like the team. All they need to do is get their pitchers fit and in condition for the season. Another thing this team has going for it is Martin now has an all important season of experience. he caught a HOF guy last year and had to go to school on his idea of how to call a game.

Plus the value of copper is actually creeping up higher every day...if he blows up they could always melt him down for scrape value...and based on last year, well, that might cover his MikeyD's bill for the season!

Of course maybe I am liking Penny because I too feel what every woman needs is a "big furry guy who sweats"...hehehehe...

you know...I wonder if the Lakers are eating the same stuff Penny did in the 2nd half, when they play the scrubs of the league?

Just seems like too much of the same to be coincidence...and Kobe did mention hey is a junk food guy...hmmmmm? Maybe Penny could ask Kobe what sort of junk food he eats? ;)

BK, I totally agree about Kuo. I say bust that dude out there now. Who knows how long he'll be healthy. Rock it while he's got it.

BK,

Just wondering how you think Grady will set the rotation? Assuming they're healthy my guess would be:

Schmidt
Lowe
Penny
Wolf
Bills

With Kuo the first guy in if someone goes down.

I ask this question for two reasons. The first is that starting pitching is clearly now (at least on paper) the strength of this team. Looking at the five guys listed above it is really hard not to get fired up about this team's chances. I wonder though if it would be a good idea to have Wolf be the third guy so as to break up all those right-handers?

The second reason I ask is that I just went out on a limb and purchased four tickets for the April 8th game at San Franciso. That game is the sixth game of the year for both teams. Now, assuming that both Zito and Schmidt are the number ones for their respective teams, they will face one another in that game! Of course, that also assumes health, good weather, five-man rotations coming out of spring training, and that Grady Little has at least tempered his man-crush on D. Lowe.

Any thoughts?

Like some of you, I've been on the fence for a couple years about Penny and fully agree his lack of conditioning and probably common sense are most likely the root of his problems. Like so many before him, you can see his emotional state when he's having an off game, and I'm not talking about those infamous temper tantrums. If we can notice it from the stands or the cameras I bet those accross the plate are getting a clear "telegraph" and mopping up on him. I noticed that with Edwin Jackson a few years ago, when he'd struggle he'd wince and start playing with his nose then every pitch his follow through would stop exactly in line with where he wanted the pitch to land, almost like he was pointing at it. I'm also one who was in favor of getting rid of him at the of the last two seasons. I don't agree he could ever really be the Ace, he doesn't have the discipline but he is a good third position guy though. but, hey Ned, if you can get something more useful for him, I say trade away.

Use some of the gas in the tank and make a real run at bringing Beltre back! My brother in Seattle says the talk up there in the media is as anxious to move him out as we are for a power bat and it's as much about moving payroll. I think Betemit and Hendrickson would love it up there and it would sharpen the focus of the rotation and bullpen. heck, they were desperate enough to bring Weaver in (has anybody else noticed their propensity toward picking up Dodger castoffs; it must be a Bavasi thing). Theres no way all the ML quality arms currently on the table are going to make April 2, there would be no for a bench.

Well at least ESPN seems to like our Dodgers.

SM4E -

I'm pretty sure that Zito and Schmidt will both start on the 7th. The fifth game. Most teams just run a 4-man rotation through the first two weeks of the season because they have a couple extra off-days.

Grumpy-

Yeah, I happen to think that Colletti will, short of something highly impactful, hold on to the excess of pitching. I think he's actually more likely to trade the depth in the form of dudes like Hendrickson, Stults, etc. than one of the "Big 6," so to speak. Especially when you consider what they have in the pipeline in Elbert, Kershaw, etc., some of those guys projected to be 4th and 5th starters, who could have some value for other teams, aren't needed as much here. And sometimes it's those little deals, for a bullpen arm, a bench guy, whatever, that make the difference. Raise your hand if you thought Marlon Anderson would matter as much as he did.

SM4E-

That sounds about right. It think initially, Kuo will be held out of the rotation (assuming everyone's healthy, of course). Unless, I guess, he's so good and Bills struggles in S.T. That could change it. But I agree with how you stack it up now. In terms of opening day starter, I don't know. I could see Schmidt getting it, since he's the genuine #1, but on the other hand, Little could give it to Lowe b/c he's been around and given to the team. Hard to say. Ether way, you'll see a good matchup on the 8th, I figure.

BK

Oooh. Good point, Nils.

BK

Could be a problem with the Zito/Schmidt matchup.
Dodgers have a day off in the first 5 games and the Giants don't. May not happen.

i root for this guy penny so hard because i can see what he can be.... that being said trading him and betemit for rolan would make my day. im on the kuo train that guy throws darts

BK:

You called that one right...who had a clue about the Marlon Anderson deal working out so well. Heck, I can be honest and say I had never heard of the guy. I think I even commented something like that when you posted about the trade...it seemed like more of an admin-type yawn'er deal.

But it was such a key deal...funny how often that happens in baseball.

About the pitching...it could very well be the best deal they made is the trade they didn't make. I had not realized how long it has been since the Dodgers had 3-guys with 15+ wins in a season. 1978? I hate to admit it but I still have underwear from that year...shhhhh, they were supposed to have been destroyed in the "great underwear purge" of ought-5...but I can be stealthy. Oops...that might have been a bit too much detail.

Annnnnyway, you are likely right on about them using the 4-5 spot guys as trade fodder. And who knows Tomko might really dial it back up this year in spring training. Speaking of which, if any of that sorta guy gets hot in the spring I think they Dodgers do need to move them when the value is as high as it will likely be...ever...

Kuo is the one who just has me stumped about what happens with him. When that guy is dialed in it's WOW!!! But what do they do with him if the starters actually work as advertised for most of the season. Or could be be the "Tomato" of the pen. A guy they know they can have hang around filling in as needed then when a started flames out Kuo can step up and keep things going for 4-5 starts. A guy like that who comes to mind was Al Downing. He did anything it took to keep in the rotation or on the roster...someone should show Kuo the films of "Gentleman Al".

I think I have mentioned this already but I have a very positive feel about the season. The team as-is should be a scrappy sort that will hang in games until something good happens. And who knows one might start actually hitting home runs and that is never a bad thing, well almost never...

BTW, I suspect one of the reasons Colletti signed Pierre to such a long deal is he might be hedging his bets about signing Furcal to an extension in 2-years. The lead-off spot is covered should Furcal go elsewhere then. Or at least it will not be a spot in the order where base hits go to die.

oops...I rambled...oh, well, I gotta be me once in a while.. ;)

Like they say, you can't have too much pitching.
I'm sure Colletti will make good choices if there is a deal out there to be had to strengthen the team.

On a side note, I see MLB was trying to take away our MLB Extra Innings. What a buncha jerks! It's all about the money. Screw all us fans outside of So-Cal who don't have Direct TV.
I'm surprised AK and BK didn't do a thread on this

SM4E:

HAHAHAHA...good pic!

I completely agree about the MLB Extra Innings "What a buncha jerks!" . I bleed Dodger blue year round but live in NY, I get to see maybe 10 games a year without the extra innings package. How can MLB think that losing a fan base as large as the cable industry is worth about a million dollars a team, what a bunch of crap. Has anyone heard if this deal has been finalized yet so I can go give my paycheck to Directv.

Tony
Get ready! I think its a done deal. I had to go to Directv because I too live out of state and my cable company did not offer Extra Innings. I am waiting for the bill to go out the roof.

Beggin' the captain's pardon, but if Penney is a strong starter and weak finisher, why not plan on trading him at the All Star break? Especially if D Willis has his usual weak start...

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