The Opening Day Starter?

What we really wanna know is did LoLo get his deal or not? ;D

I agree with you, BK. Just by looking at their 162-game career averages, Little would be foolish to put Furcal in the number 2 slot behind Pierre. Furcal strikes out twice as often as Pierre and Pierre's stats suggest he is also better able to get the bunt down. On the other side of the coin, Furcal has shown he has a little pop in his bat, which is always a bonus for the lead-off slot.

I think Furcal leading off, followed by Pierre is a no-brainer.

Len

BK:

I think putting Lowe in between Schmidt and Penny isa good idea. Almost as cook as when Joe Niekro was in between Ryan and J.R. Richard. That was pure EVIL and put teams into slumps for weeks.

And btw, I am with you about leadoff. Unless there are things we cannot see here from the cheap seats, based on history Furcal seems less of a contact bat control style hitter then Pierre. Also Furcal is just a bit too free swining for a number one hitter let alone hitting 2nd. That could lead to a lot of blown innings with stike-em-out-throw-em-out's on hit blown hit and run plays. Pierre makes lots of ground ball contact, I like that in a 2-hole batter.

No matter, I really LOVE the type of players the Dodgers have added the past two seasons. As a fan it really is restoring the enjoyment I once got from watching the game. It really has been great with your interviews with Logan White and Colletti. Combine that with what has been written all off season and it's much more as if the team cares about winning again. Something missing since Lasorda retired.

Grump,
Ok, this is insider information just between you and me. As Lolo's self proclaimed agent, I got him an invite to Spring Training... and that's why he's been missing on here lately. If he does well this Spring, he might be considered for an invite to the 2008 Spring. And this will only cost him $200,000 to participate. And then my split / fee is only 35% of what you pay so Lolo owes me only $70,000. Am I a great agent or what? Anyone else looking to hit it big in the Majors, contact me.

I agree on both counts. Lowe earned the opening day starting role with his performance last season. I don't want Furcal batting second where he has to worry about taking pitches to give Pierre a chance to steal. Furcal has extra-base power and I want him up there trying to hit the ball in the gaps.

Geez, Grumpy. James Rodney Richard... Wow, now THAT was one hell of a pitcher. I seem to remember his career was cut short after he suffered a stroke, or something like that.

Anybody know for sure?

I can still see him pitching in those funky orange Astros uniforms from the early 80's.

He used to own the Dodgers.

Len

Len-

Yeah, I see that too. And giving Lowe the home opener is a nice trade off. My big point was that in general, I think the honor of Opening Day starter should go to the guy who was there and contributing the year before, all things being equal (had Schmidt gone to the Royals, it's a different story). But if it does better to set up the rotation with Lowe in between, no arguement here. Though in April, usually it's easy enough to shuffle things around.

BK

yeah, J-freaking-R Richard. He was the best pitcher to ever, ever step on the mound. The difference between him and Ryan was always he had control. BUT he also understood the importance of that weenie-riser through the batters-box at 103MPH during warmups...in the first inning.

Like ya said Len, all he had to do was throw his glove on the mound and the Dodgers would get one dribbler single or might get someone on if a broken bat impaled the SS trying to catch the line drive.

And yeah he had a stroke. The poop about it was that the Astro's played it like he was being lazy. He even tried to keep pitching and either something happened during warm-up or throwing between starts that finally go them to get him to a real doctor. No matter the exact sequence the Atro's treated Richard like crap after that...he even ended up found living under a bridge at one point. After it got to the media the Astro's went into damage control and did what needed done to see JR got help he needed and I believe they even gave him a job with the team.

But, I LOVED that guy. On the mound he was pure mean and pure power pitching, with a kicker, he had a curve and a change. He could throw strikes and throw lots of pitches. When I was a kid I loved pitching and even though I was never going to have the ability to play later in life, I still learned everything I could about mechanics, pitch patterns and all that...it was because of watching guys like Richard, Seaver, Gibson, Drysdale & Koufax (just barely though), Hunter, Sutton, you name it, even Phil Niekro had game.

I miss the days when the pitcher was the team. Everything hung on pitching and defense. So I followed them ALL.

BK's comments about putting Lowe between the power guys brought to might what might have been the most devestating top three in my life time. THAT is why baseball is fun to me...all the memories of past heroes.

Furcal should bat second the two hitter gets more fastballs than any other hitter in the lineup I rather have a guy with more pop bat second. Plus Pierre steals a lot more than Furcal and with maury wills working with Pierre its only going to increase his steals and bunt singles. Mark my words Pierre will hit leadoff no question.

Omar-

Good point about the pitches Furcal would see in the two spot. I can see your point, for sure. As for the SBs, they both run a ton. And one of the good things about not having a true power bat in the center of the lineup is it means they don't have to stop running in front of that hitter (as not to run into outs with the big bat up). My whole thing is that Pierre swings through fewer pitches, and is therefore more suited to bat behind a guy like Furcal to make hit and run opps more successful. Plus, Furcal has reached base more frequently than Pierre over the last few seasons.

But the flip side of that is Furcal, seeing more fastballs as you suggest, will have more pitches to drive, which he can do.

Not sure you changed my mind, but it's something to think about, that's for sure. I do think you're right that Pierre will end up leading off, but mostly because Little doesn't want to remove him from his comfort zone.

BK

If Juan Pierre gets on base often as the leadoff hitter, wouldn't you rather have someone with gap power (Furcal) hitting behind him?

The other way around, I potentially see a real return to small ball. Furcal gets on, steals 2nd or gets bunted over (Pierre is an excellent bunter), then Nomar, Gonzo or Kent tries to drive him in.

Actually, nice problem to have. If last year is any indication, Little seems to favor Furcal as the leadoff man. He had 2 last year (with Lofton) and generally opted for Rafael leading off with Lofton, also a good bunter with little power, hitting second.

Dodgerdog-

If Pierre could maintain a respectable OBP for a leadoff guy, I'd agree. He's been trending the wrong way, though. That said, perhaps you let him try and (hopefully not) fail. But if he's hovering around where he's been in the last couple seasons, Pierre doesn't get on enough to best take advantage of all the advantages he and Furcal provide.

BK

Pierre in the last 4 seasons stole 225 SB's Furcal stole 137 SB's. Thats's a big difference! The only part of the lineup I didn't like last year was that Little putting Furcal in front of lofton. Furcal will drive more runs in the 2 hole and possibly hit 20 bombs seeing nothing but fastballs! I love this blog keep up the good work. I LOVE COLLETTI!!!!!!!

omar:

excellent point about Furcal and fastballs. Never even thought of that possibility. Furcal did look like a much better fastball hitter then off-speed. It makes good sense given your observations.

I still wonder how Furcal will do trying to hit behind the runner. Or if he is selfless enough to give himself up on a regular basis. This is my main concern with Furcal. How selfish is he in terms of his own numbers? To me Pierre is the guy who would do whatever it takes to win Furcal never has had to show he feels the same so this should be very interesting.

Just a follow up to the JR Richard conversation. The Astros totally f-ed him over. Yes, he was homeless and living under a bridge for awhile. It was a minister that found him and helped him out. There's a movement in Houston to get his number retired. They even have a website, http://www.ams.sunysb.edu/~slcook/richard/home.htm

I believe that many are overlooking an important variable that Pierre has never had in his corner before. The work he is getting with Wills is sure to make him a better stealer and also the work on his agility and bunting with Wills will improve his OBP in my opinion. If these two areas improve, as I believe they will, the team will be best served with him at leadoff and Furcal 2nd.

As Pierre said in a recent interview, it will be difficult for him to raise his OBP because pitchers don't fear him, so they throw him strikes. He doesn't strike out much, and he takes a lot of pitches, but he never is going to walk much. So he is what he is. And for my two cents, I like him batting second, in a similar manner as Lofton did last year. Great possibilities for Furcal if he is on first with hit and runs and bunts, and since Pierre isn't a line drive hitter, and has such speed, DP's will be rare. But for BK's reasons, I do believe the season will start with Pierre leading off.

Furcal- 1, Pierre-2, and i will tell you why. Pierre is caught steeling more than Furcal, Furcal has a sig. better OBP, and he took almost twice as many walks as Pierre. Why would we ever want Pierre batting before him? The theory that the number two hitter gets sig. more fastballs than a number one guy is true, but it also becomes much less true as the level of play rises-- pretty much every major league starter can throw three pitches for strikes, and i dont think they will just throw Raffy, a fastball hitter, significantly more number of fastballs in the two slot. That's sort of like a high school rule in my opinion.
Also, the benefit of Furcal hitting doubles in the two slot is great and all, but only if Pierre gets on base before him. Personally, id rather take the lead off double, single, or walk, and then the bunt to move him over to third, or hit and run to get a first and third.
None of these facts takes into account that Raffy has never been a two hitter. Why would we put him so out of him comfort zone when Pierre has hit well in both spots. We scored tons of runs last year with Furcal-Lofton. We got a better but same version of Kenny, so why mess with what is proven to work? Basically, the altruistic vision in my head reads, Furcal leads off with a single, Pierre bunts him over to THIRD (while also possibly/probably beating out the throw from the third baseman) we have first and third with no outs, and the heart of the lineup coming up. That really doesnt work with free swinging furcal hitting after low OBP Pierre.

GO DODGERS!!!!

A two hitter seeing more fastballs a high school stat? I'm sorry when you have a rabbit on first the best hitter in your line up on deck your going to throw fastballs. If you looked around baseball there is only a handfull of pitchers that could throw three different pitches for strikes anytime in the count. Pitching is very thin the way scouts draft you have nothing but hard throwers in the league. There the occasional soft thrower but that's usually a veteran who's had a ton of surgeries. Pierre OBP will go up with the help of Wills. Plus people are forgetting how many times Furcal bunts for hits as well as gap power. Good problem to have but I would put the guy that averages 60 sb's the last four years in the lead off spot

If Furcal had as many attempts as Pierre, he would have stolen more bases.. Just saying..

Gooey:

Thanks for that link! The JR Richard story is one of the bigger tragedys in sports history. For a guy who was so talents and good with his fellow players to have been cast aside as he was is just as wrong as can be. I really think some Astro's lawyer wanted to distance the Astro's from the whole thing to try and make it look as if the Astro's had no liability for his having the stroke and ignoring the symptoms which delayed treatment.

I recall that there was even a report that Richard was simply being lazy. I mean the guy has a sudden almost instant change in his personality and cognative abilities and they just blew it off? Sad...ever, very sad...I thought the same thing then too.

So thanks for doing the research...

Good Lord, you guys!!! Pierre's stolen base percentage is 74.4%, Rafael Furcal's is 74%. How can everyone keep saying that JP gets caught more? Quantitatively, yes. As a percentage of chances, no.

Grumpy,

I too remember the accusations at the time that JR was slacking off. In fairness to them though, who would have ever dreamed that it was a medical issue that ultimately led to th stroke?

Thanks for the link, Gooey. Good stuff.

Len

Hey Len:

Actually I really remember the events as reported in the paper. One sign of a stroke in people is an abrupt change in behavior and/or personality. And while those symptoms are also a sign of drug use it takes a LOT of drugs to make that happen.

Combine combine those symptoms with, as I remember reading, the team trainer telling Richard that he was fine and did not need to see a doc and you have a tragedy. It's a blame game thing now. Yet if something good came from it that would be that teams and players seem to error on the side of caution.

I am sure the Astro's did not want him to be hurt and it was simply a mistake in judgement by the team for a player who because of his medical condition was not able to make good decisions...sadly those things happen more then people want to know. To me it was more the manner that the Astro's handled the whole thing after the fact. Where they could have done the right and ethical thing in making certain, really insisting Richard be taken care of, they chose to distance themselves for all of it...that is what smacks of risk management which never seems to work out well for people with illnesses.

I remember when the news broke about him being found under that bridge. I simply could never believe that could have happened in that day and age. But as we see around us it really does, everyday.

Football took a bit longer to "get it" though.