Ask an Expert: Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus

Blue Notes:  Start with the flagship of Dodgers injury potential, Nomar Garciaparra.  Last year, he impressed many with his production in a relatively healthy season... in which he still played only 122 games and would have missed more at the end had the Dodgers not been in a pennant race.  Considering he played only 62 games in '05 and 43 in '04, how many games do you see him playing this season (and if you had to guess, what will put him on the DL this year?  Pick some body parts...)

Will Carroll: First base didn't really help, but I don't think you can blame the shift. An interesting thought -- is it Nomar's body that's breaking down because of his workouts, or are his workouts keeping him playable beyond where he should be? I think he's good for 120 games. He's not stupid and seems to be adjusting to his new-found level. He'll probably pull a hammy, maybe an oblique in mid-May.

Blue Notes: Jeff Kent- He's old, but has been very durable over the course of his career.  But last season, rib issues limited Kent to 115 games, and killed much of his production.  Was that the beginning of a new, late-career trend for him, or do you think it was an aberration?

Will Carroll:  Well, aside from that car wash ... I think it was traumatic, but not chronic. Once you get past those, you're usually past them. That said I can't believe he's still at 2B.

Blue Notes: Luis Gonzalez is another guy who is old, but has been extremely durable throughout his career.  Is there any reason to think he won't be capable, if need be, of playing 150+ games this season (even if the Dodgers end up giving him more rest than he's had in the past)?

Will Carroll: He needs the rest, is coming off the elbow surgery, shoulder problems, hammies. He's good at the 100-120 level, overexposed beyond that. Not like they don't have good OFs there to back him up. I still don't understand this move.

Blue Notes: Brad Penny- He was healthy enough last season to make 34 starts, but his back often cost him innings, and his elbow has been an issue in previous seasons.  How do you think he'll hold up this year?  What do you think is the greatest threat to his health?

Will Carroll: He has the Milano curse to deal with. I think his conditioning is the biggest worry, but he's a big "country strong" guy who's always adjusted, never had the same injuries twice. I don't know why he's the expendable one for the Dodgers. He'd be the ace of a lot of teams, even in a slow decline like we saw last season. I'll take Penny for 6 innings every fifth day, thanks.

Blue Notes: Should Dodgers fans be worried about Rafael Furcal's shoulder?

Will Carroll: Not after his ankle injury today.

Blue Notes: Wild Cards- Who is due for an injury?  What are the odds the Dodgers will lose as many games to injury as they did last year?  Can it happen again?

Will Carroll: Due? No one's due. I think the move to bring in Stan Conte is huge. He's one of the best and held together an old, fragile Giants team well below expectations (and below is good for days and dollars lost.) Ken Crenshaw made a big difference in his first year with the Dbacks. Let's see what Conte can do in his first year in blue.