J.D. Salinger Lives as a Recluse

Forget Drew, Forget Boras!!! Keep trying to get players who want to be Dodgers. It is the best franchise in sports!!!

Drew is not worth the ink to print the article. She did us a favor and we will be even more thankful in the coming months and years that we are not stuck with her.

It's hard for me to fathom how a "religious" guy like Drew who "prayed" over his decision can determine that his sudden choice to opt out, forcing the Dodgers to immediately change their off-season plans, is not worthy of moral discussion. He is only concerned that once he made that decision, the Dodgers weren't interested in "keeping" him, so he had to move on, making it, in his own mind, purely a business decision instigated by the Dodgers. He rationalizes it as if it were the Dodgers' fault. His religion must be of the "me first" variety. Sorry about all the "quotation marks". Good luck playing under the scrutiny of Boston. I will miss your steady play, but not you, and I, for one, am now happy at the way things turned out.

DCDodger,

"Sorry about all the "quotation marks".

I'm not a morning person and just got up a couple minutes ago, but that still managed to crack me up.

AK

Did I see mention of security for Drew's family?
Where the average family probably lives for 15 - 20 years on what he makes in 1 ??
Give me a break!!

andy b:

dude, what world do you live in where the "average" family makes a million bucks/year?

But don't feel bady, there was a PGA guy about 12-13 years back who made a similay comment to the effect he considered an average family made like $3M per year some equally insane number.

oh, wait...was it DREW who said that about the money? Good GAWD...!!???

The PrinCESS will suffer BIG time in Beantown.

I can't wait until she takes the field in Yankee Stadium for the first time...HAHAHA...then when she has her special visitor the 2nd month of the season and the real fans in Boston just treat her likt the $2-hooker that she is...

Grumpy
Yeah it was Drew. He mentioned something about security for his family was one of the considerations. Surely we can all "relate" to that.
What nerve...

AK/BK
When are you going to have a thread about the Extra Innings fiasco?
So Direct TV is gonna blackmail fans (me!) into subscribing with them?
In Demand's offer (which is the same as Direct TV's) does not call for exclusivity. But MLB wants Direct TV to have it and would be exclusive to them.
I'm so pissed I can't see straight. I hope this will come back and bite baseball on the butt!
How can they get away with this?

I hate Drew's opt out. I hate it because of Colletti's punk head. Colletti doesn't know who he should sign to make up Drew's leaving.

After Drew execute his "right", Colletti spent 70M on signing Nomar, Gonzo and Pierre, which give the Dodgers nothing but built up expensive, pathetic mediocrity. I strongly feel if these 3 guys get too much playing time, we will end up very close to .500 WPCT.

Will McCourt care? Probably not. According to Forbes, the Dodgers have become his bill printing license anyway.

Parking at Dodger Stadium is now $15! Large price to pay to get stuck in the lot.

October 2007: While the Dodgers are in the playoffs, making a run at the World Series, J.D. Drew will be sitting at home wondering what might have been. You can take that to the bank.

Len

Andy B:

The "average family" comment shows how little understanding and compassion she has for others in the world. Nice ethics...

Morikawa:

Best thing that ever happened to the Dodgers and the young talent is the Drewish Princess opting out. She will not play more then 2-3 years total playing time of the five-year deal she signed. She is just too fragile to survive. You should read the way the BoSox fans are ALREADY up in arms over the signing...I mean can you blame them? Who would you rather have had for the $70M..the Princess or Johnny Damon?

I don't get your anger with what the team has done. It appears to be one of the best Dodger teams in over a decade maybe almost two decades. There is lots of depth to go around. Pitching, hitting, fielding, off the bench...the ingredients are there for a good solid season. If some of the young guys mature during the season they seem to have a solid chance to go deep in the playoffs.

Last year I had little confidence in their chances. While there had all the talent they had been too streaky and lacked the starting pitching to shut down teams in the playoffs. This season there are 4-6 starters who can throw a no hitter at any time.

I think this season McCourt actually deserves praise for allowing Colletti the freedom to build a winner. McCourt can deal with the business side of the team, which is what he is good at, and Colletti can run the baseball side.

I think this is the first off season in many years I can say I do not disagree with anything the team did...every move seemed logical and thought out. Dan Evans was on the verge of getting to this point but McCourt screwed up when he fired him in favor of DePUDesta. He remedied that mistake by firing DePUDesta and getting Colletti.

I have never seen a team with potential destroyed faster then how the Pudster did it to the Dodgers. If there was a rag armed broken down guy who had one good season sometime in the last decade the PUDster would sign him to a $10M deal. But if it was a young stud who had heart and could catch the ball he would trade him. Every cornerstone Evans laid down the PUDster took a wrecking ball to...

That Colletti built what he did in just two years in an all time turn around. I think he deserves the support of the fans because he went out and has tried to build a real winner.

BTW, do you see any bad apple sorts with the team anymore? NOPE, they were the first thing Colletti 86'd...Guzman was an example, He really had no upside once the GM did not have a man-crush on him as the PUDster did. But unless a guy is a decent guy and a team guy Colletti seems willing to show him the door.

That just my take on the hit ya laid on Colletti...I just think you are wrong about the moves...we'll see...and it should be fun if nothing else...

Tell those Dodger fans over on your China site some of us Dodger fans say Hi Ya... ;)

Dodgerdog:

WOW...$15 to park? Sigh...McCourt loves his parking lots doesn't he? Yeeeesh!!

Gumpy,

Trust me, I'm not making this stuff up. Most of the Dodger fans in Taiwan feel upset about Colletti's offseason moves, probably felt even worse about McCourt fired DePodesta.

And yes, Dodgers have their best depth in 07, but the truth is Dodgers are going to waste their depth on the bench.

Do you know Gonzo batted OPS+ 97, which suggests he did not even clear the league average (let alone league LF average) in a hitter friendly Chase Field? You expect a 40-year old guy to have another "break out"? Do you know Drew committed OPS+ 125 in pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium 2006? Gonzo's good, keyword: WAS.

The best explanation we signed Nomar for 2-year is he is the PR guy. His performance? Give me a break. You can use Loney + Sanez platoon 1B and simply get more run support. Why dumped the 19M?

It goes without saying how suck Pierre is, let alone the insane, terrible 5-year length of his contract. Pierre's last 4-year outs-committed rankings are 1st, 2nd, 2nd & 1st. Plus his sissy arm and unimpressive SB successful rate. I'd say we sign Lofton for another single year (just for insurance) to platoon with Repko would be much better.

Maybe I just take a little bit too hard on Nomar. He is not that useless. But the key point is we sign Nomar to play 1B. Actually, Nomar's performance probably ranks around the 75 percentile of the league, good for middle INF but bad for corner power. If Kent's 08 option is not vested, I guess we can have a shot to put Nomar at the right position where the Dodgers are able to gain the most.

By the way, I suggest you to use "DePodesta" "Monkey" "Trial" as key words to search on Google. You will find something really makes sense on The Hardball Times.

Nonetheless, Dodger fans in Taiwan won't feel hopeless about the upcoming 07 because Dodgers still have Loney, La Roche, Ethier, Kemp and so on. We realize Colletti just built up the "Expensive Mediocrity" in LA, and the longer those expensive guys sit on bench, the more advantage the Dodgers will gain.

Again, I believe in all DePodesta's moves. He did not tear the team apart but traded someone the Dodgers did not really need. He was bad luck and did not have enough time to proof he did the right things for LA.

Morikawa Blue,

I think that you are missing a key reason why Colletti brought all the 'overpriced' veterans on board. The young guys are and will be the future of the Dodgers, but it's never a good idea to start the season by relying on unproven rookies, and it's pretty much suicidal trying to make a run in the playoffs with no veteran presence. If Colletti made one major strategic mistake last season, it was by trying to rely on guys like Osoria, Hamulack, and Kuo fill out the bullpen in April.

2006 was such a good overall year for the Dodgers not only because of the playoff appearance, but because of incredible youth development. A very strong case can be made that Ethier, Martin, Loney, et. al. would not have enjoyed so much success if they had to bear the burden of carrying a major league ballclub on their shoulders. After all, Ethier fell apart in heat of the pennant race (injury or no) and had to be bailed out by the veteran Marlon Anderson.

You do have a point about Gonzo, Nomar, and others being overpriced, but Colletti has the payroll to pay them. Besides, who would you have liked to see signed? Colletti could have not spent the money, but would that really have been better for the team? $18 million less this season does not automatically free up that money to be used next season, and despite all the fan backlash, the McCourts don't raise ticket and parking prices to support the payroll; they do it because the market dictates that they can.

By the end of the season, I'm willing to bet that the starting lineup will look much different than what it projects to look like in April. Nomar/Kent/Gonzo will have spent significant time on the DL, and some of the rookies will have impressed enough to win lots of PT. I for one believe in the importance of relatively stress-free development rather than a trial by fire.

One final point: even though it kind of pains me to say this, I think it's about time that we drop the 'pitcher friendly' description of Dodgers Stadium. With all the changes over the years, there's really no advantage either way anymore. The fences are at a reasonable distance and the wind in not outrageous... it's pretty neutral nowadays. If anything, the hot dry air of summer day games seem to give the hitter a edge. The reasonable dimensions and symmetric geometry makes Dodgers Stadium a fair and pure ballpark, but it's not so pitcher friendly anymore.

Morikawa Blue,

I don't understand your infatuation with Drew. Drew's biggest problem was his lack of clutch hitting. If he didn't step it up last September he would have been absolutely pathetic in the clutch. That is why a guy like Nomar is so much more valuable than Drew ever will be.

Nomar in 2006: .368 RISP (5th in the NL) with a Clutch rating of 9.8 (for you Bill James' fans out there)
JD Drew in 2006: .298 RISP with a Clutch rating of -0.2

No big loss, in my opinion.

Len

Ueno,

Thanks for your great pieces. I feel better now. But i'm still skeptical about the point of pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium or not since 06 is the first year Dodger Stadium doesn't seem like it ever was. You know we need at least 3-year data to refine the current Park Factor. Nevertheless, Gonzo's stats don't stand for him.

Len,

I don't think RISP means clutchiness, it's Steve Lyons' theory and I don't buy it. Here are some tips:

1. OPS represents the "Neutral Wins" (OPS_Wins). It's very close to 10 runs per win.

2. RISP performance represents the "Run Expectancy Wins" (REW), it weights the "runners-on" situation.

3. PBP (Play by play) data represents the "Win Probability Added" (WPA), it weights the late inning or close situation.

In my opinion, using WPA and OPS_win will be a better way to state the "clutchiness". RISP is not good enough since the stats remain unchanged in close or one-sided game.

As you collect all Nomar's stats, multiply his OPS_Wins with his plate appearance leverage index, then compare that to the WPA he committed last year, you will soon realize Nomar's clutchiness is not the way you think. And the reason is very simple: Nomar's terrible 2006 2nd half -- he might be very clutchy, but his overall performance sucked anyway, that should give him some penalties.

Let me make this clear: Don't use clutchiness to judge a player. No matter how sophisticated we define clutchiness, it's just for fun. It's a representation of player's performance, not his stuff.

Morikawa Blue,

I actually wasn't looking at stats when I brought up the point about Dodger Stadium not being so pitcher friendly anymore. Maybe I should have, since I didn't realize until just recently that the Ravine was so uncharacteristically pitcher unfriendly in 2006.

I was thinking along more general terms, such as dimensions, ground rules, foul territory, and environmental effects. In the past, Dodgers Stadium was considered to be pitcher friendly primarily because of the expansive foul territory, which has gone away piecemeal over the past several years. Like Dodgerdog pointed out, the dugout seats took away a ton of foul territory.

So, what we're left with in Dodger Stadium is a pretty traditional, nonbiased ballpark. It's not as insanely huge as PETCO or Comerica, while it doesn't have the ridiculously short porch or giant wall in left field like in Minute Maid or Fenway. There are no funny angles, no 'hill' in CF, no ivy to eat balls that hit the outfield fence, and there's no need for a humidor to weigh down the balls.

BTW, I think the park factor for Dodger Stadium used to be so favorable to pitching over years mainly because of the way the team was built. 2006 was the first time in a long time that the Dodgers actually had a potent offense, while the pitching quality fell off somewhat, which might explain the sudden change in park factor. If everyone stays healthy this year (knock on wood), it looks like the pitching will have finally caught up with last year's offense, so park factor should rebound to somewhere neutral for '07.