NL West Preview- San Francisco Giants
Opening day is right around the corner, so it's a good time to check in on the state of the NL West. The Dodgers look to be the class of the division, but we're no longer talking the laughing stock quintet of 2005, when San Diego's 82 wins were enough to take the pennant... by five games. This year, every team in the west has a shot to be (in varying degrees, and with some requiring more luck than others) good to very good in '07. Well, almost every team. While the Dodgers, Padres, Rockies, and D-Backs are on the upswing, the Giants aren't. In fact, the bunch that limped to a 76 wins last year have a good shot at losing 90 during this go 'round.
Granted, I'm just a guy with an internet connection, but I don't see how this team can be anything but mediocre... and that's if everything breaks well. All you really need know about the G-Men is that they're incredibly old, and have the ever fearsome Ray Durham slotted to protect Barry Bonds, who will bat third this year. Ray Durham? Good player, but would you ever let Barry Bonds swing a bat knowing Durham, Rich Aurelia, and Pedro Feliz are waiting behind him? I don't care if Bonds is turning 43 this year, I'd roll the ball. The baseball world may not get a chance to find out if Barry is finished, because he could walk 600 times this year. Only seven teams scored fewer runs than San Francisco in '06, and while FA import Dave Roberts (Brian Sabean overpaid in years, but I've always liked him) could provide some giddyup at the top of an order that stole an inert 58 bases, the rest of the lineup is basically the same, just a year older. The Giants sported the fifth lowest team BA (.259), and had a wretched .324 team OBP, third worst in baseball. A healthy Barry helps the second number, but not enough to make this a good offense.
On the mound, Barry Zito will be paid like an ace, but I have serious doubts as to whether he'll actually pitch like one. He'll be good, but not better than the #1 they lost to the Dodgers in Jason Schmidt. And in a division that suddenly has some pretty good pitching, can a starting staff of Zito, Matt Cain, Matt Morris, Noah Lowry and (gulp!) Russ Ortiz make up for the lack of production in the lineup? Likely not. San Francisco's '06 team ERA of 4.63 was barely better than Colorado's (4.66), and with the vast advantage of playing at AT&T- it is still called that, right?- Park instead of Coors Field. Morris has been cooked for a couple years, Ortiz for longer, and Lowry is yet to reach his potential. Cain could end up the best of the staff by year's end, and even if Zito justifies his contract, it takes more than two solid starters to win a division.
In the bullpen, Armando Benitez is hanging on to his closer gig by a thread, threatened by Brian Wilson. Not that the closer of this team is likely to get much work. When it's over, even if the Dodgers don't take the division, Fans of the Blue will, barring total calamity, at least get to poke fun at the Giants. Nothing like a built in silver lining.
Projection: 71-91, 5th in the NL West.
BK

BK,
I actually disagree with you. The Giants scare me a little. They are old but if health holds up, I think the experience / confidence can help them contend. Rockies and D'backs are athletic and young but they lack the playoff run experience and SD is solid with experience but I think they lost some of their magic with Bochy and Roberts leaving. The Dodgers of course I'm excited about and think they should take the NL West hands down but out of all the rest of the teams, the experienced Giants w/ Barry, Omar, Benjie, Morris, Cain, and Zito worry me a little.
Posted by: Rob | March 27, 2007 at 02:00 PM
Rob-
Hey, you could be right. I've been wrong before... but I don't see how the Giants can contend. They have plenty of experience, which is part of the problem. That lineup isn't very good, and without protection for Bonds, having him back and healthy won't matter nearly as much as it could, or possibly should (if Barry is still Barry, or reasonably close). I think Zito for Schmidt is a lateral move at best, and the rest of the rotation outside of Cain is pretty bad unless Lowry blows up. And the bullpen isn't good enough to make up for it, either.
Like I said, I've been wrong before, so maybe the Giants can make some noise. But I doubt it.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | March 27, 2007 at 03:41 PM
BK
Outstanding assessment of the Giants! I too would never pitch to Barry. Why? The only thing that thing that could save the Giants is a career year by many players. Also, because of the age of the Giants, they must fear injury. If a couple of the pitchers go on the DL it could get very ugly. I hope some of the Bay Area Bloggers are still reading our Blog!!
Posted by: Package | March 27, 2007 at 04:06 PM
BK:
I have to agree that the Giants have the potential...but given the age of these guys it could go either way. A healthy Bonds and 'frisco will be in the hunt for most of the season. But they will not scary anyone. Plus Zito is not a big game guy...never has been and never will be...he pitches soft as in his attitude not how hard he throws..
I have never understood why pitchers in MLB never turned Bonds upside down a few dozen times a season. I am not joking, when I was young and learning to play first thing I learned was to bury anyone who could hurt you with power...stick the first few in his ribs and that pretty much will solve the issue one way or the other...even it you get run from a game or two it's all part of the game...I was well know to be willing to throw at my best friend's head if he got a hit last at bat...and did it more then once...of course I usually floated a curve up there when actually aiming at a head...it was funny to have them stand there with a look like "...I know it's gonna break...he won't do it to me again..." next thing it was all knee caps, elbows and flying equipment...funny has heck...I loved it...who cares what they thought... :)
Pitchers today are pampered momma's boys...bring back Double-D and Sandy and Gibson and Marischal...even Ryan knew enough to be smart-wild...today they never pitch inside. If Penny used his anger that way he would actually be awesome...he could be extremely intimidating if he became more aggressive (but controlled agression) and territorial about the plate. But it's a fine line and must be done with purpose, control and the understanding there will be retaliation as well as the possibility to get run...they have sanitized the game far too much...let the men play and let the sweet precious ones stay home.
Posted by: grumpy3b | March 27, 2007 at 04:58 PM
Grumpy,
I agree with you! What do you think Drysdale or Gibson would have done if a batter walked up to the plate with body armor on their arm? I'm pretty sure they would have put him on his butt and given him reason to wear the body armor. Did your mom or dad ever tell you to stop crying or they would give you reason to cry? Gibson or Drysdale would say to Barry "We'll give you a reason to wear body armor".
Butch
Posted by: Butch | March 27, 2007 at 07:55 PM
Grumpy,
Forgot to add that the only reason Barry wears the body armor is so he can hang out over the plate and take the outside corner. Until somebody backs his butt off the plate some, he owns the inside and the outside. The pitcher has to be able to own one or the other but until they lay claim to it Barry is claiming both for himself.
Butch
Posted by: Butch | March 27, 2007 at 07:57 PM
Boys, boys...
Has somebody been poisoning the water with those ratty garlic fries?
Rob, the Giants actually scare you? Barry Bonds is but a shadow of his former self. The majority of this team uses carbon dating to accurately identify their dates of birth. The only thing scary about the Giants is their pitiful lack of championships over the past 50+ years. ;-)
And Grumpy, you think that the Giants will be in the hunt for most of the season? The only thing those guys will be hunting for come mid June is a good retirement home and some early-October tee times in Maui. ;-)
Come on guys! The Giants are losing 90 games this year. Did you hear me GiantsFan?
Len
Posted by: Len Penzo | March 27, 2007 at 08:05 PM
Ned Coletti scares me. I don't understand is obsession with Vets over high-upside youngsters like Kemp, LaRoche, Billingsley, and above all James Loney. What else does Loney have to prove in the Minors?
Posted by: Bryan Vargas | March 27, 2007 at 09:15 PM
Just like I wouldn't be surprised if Jose Cruz Jr. and Oscar Robles combine to bat .750 against the Dodgers, and score the division clinching runs against the Dodgers for San Diego in September, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Giants put a severe dent in the Dodgers' chances this season. Although I agree that SF is a .500 team at best, those guys can never be discounted.
Personally, I think Arizona is the team to watch this year, although San Diego will continue to be dangerous. I really like the Rockies, but MLB's new anti-humidor policy is going to turn Coors back into a launch pad again and completely undermine Colorado's rebuilding efforts.
Posted by: Makoto Ueno | March 27, 2007 at 09:34 PM
Makoto,
Good point. The elimination of the humidor in Denver is going to create lots of those 15-14 type games that were so common a few years ago. Pitching staffs will be really stretched thin and we'll have to sing the praises of Timberrr as he takes one for the team, giving up 9 runs in 4+ innings. Oh, wait, he'd do that at sea level anyway.
By the way, how impressive is Loney's 9 RBI game now? That was accomplished at humidor Coors.
Posted by: Chunkdog32 | March 28, 2007 at 08:54 AM
it doesnt suprise me that ned is going with the vets over the kids because he came from the old folks home that is the SF Giants!!!!!!! I dont even hate the giants that much anymore because they pose no threat to my dodgers. Im Anti san diego and anti angels.... those "other' LA fans are getting on my nerves with that bandwagon getting full!!! Have a few losing seasons and see how that works out for them
Posted by: bigtaxdizzle | March 28, 2007 at 09:47 AM
Chunkdog,
The Rockies became my adopted 2nd home team last year, when I lived in Colorado, so I got plenty of chances to see them in action during the early part of the season. Holliday, Atkins, and Hawpe can really mash, a healthy Helton should put up some decent numbers, and they actually have some pretty good young pitchers. Their top two position prospects Ianetta and Tulowitzki are full of potential on the scale of Loney, LaRoche, and Kemp, although they probably need lots more seasoning before they reach a level of excellence.
Last year, despite their humidor and 'waterlogged' baseballs, Coors was still a fairly offensive-leaning ballpark. But, the games were definitely watchable and exciting (as long as you changed your mindset to accept the fact that a 5-3 game at Coors was just as good as a 2-1 pitcher's duel anywhere else).
Not to take anything away from Loney, but there were reports that Coors field began to run out of balls late last season, and the Rockies were forced to use some baseballs that hadn't spent sufficient time in the humidor. So, it's possible that Loney's 9 RBIs were just another instance of the 'same old Coor's'. Still, it's rare to see a player so locked in for an entire game.
Posted by: Makoto Ueno | March 28, 2007 at 10:09 AM
Makoto,
I think you are mistaken regarding the MLB humidor policy. According to MLB.com, MLB is mandating that all baseballs this season be stored at 70 deg and 50% humidity. That is a validation of the Rockies' humidor, not a ban against it.
Len
Posted by: Len Penzo | March 28, 2007 at 01:31 PM
So the other day I'm flipping through the old 200 channels and I come across this movie. It was strangely familiar so I kept watching. For a while I thought I was watching Cocoon 3, even though I thought they didn't make one. Upon closer inspection... it was a Giants game.
Posted by: Stinger | March 29, 2007 at 03:45 PM
The Giants won't win because Barry Bonds hates White people. Why would anyone pitch to Bonds when you have a lineup filled with little leaguers? Add in Steroids and the Giants should have NO CHANCE!
Of course in the National Leage west...... even a Steroid filled RACIST can win!
Posted by: J Flato | April 01, 2007 at 07:23 PM