NL West Preview - Arizona Diamondbacks
Remember that scene in "Dazed and Confused" when Wooderson (Matthew McConaughey) delivers the classic line, "That's what I love about these high school girls, man. I get older. They stay the same age." Well, replace Wooderson with Diamondbacks Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick , substitute "D-Backs roster" for "high school girls" (and remove the hilariously inappropriate context) and you've likely paraphrased the Arizona front office's opinion of their future. The roster's core sports a low enough collective age that by the time they become steady and consistent Major Leaguers, they'll still have plenty of youthful production ahead of them as the honchos gather more gray in their locks. Unfortunately, their net inexperience makes predicting their immediate future a crap shoot.
As the Dodgers showed last season, it's perfectly possible for unproven talent to step up. But with so many kids playing important roles, it's crucial that at least a few guys grow up fast. The "children" include third baseman Chad Tracy, shortstop Stephen Drew (brother of "The Princess"), first baseman Conor Jackson, center fielder Chris Young and right fielder Carlos Quentin (and that's not counting prospects Justin Upton and Carlos Gonzalez, who could get the call this season). Tracy's 129 whiffs were good for 11th in the NL and his 25 errors tied for league tops among third basemen, so those are two problem areas worth targeting (especially the former, since the team sported a meager .331 OBP (MLB-23rd) as it is. Stephen Drew shares his brother's susceptibility to the injury bug, but he gets on base and offers a promising glove. All eyes will also be on Chris Snyder, taking over for Johnny Estrada behind the plate. Pitchers love targeting his mitt, so perhaps those shoes can be filled. But when it comes to vet leadership among position players, second baseman Orlando Hudson and left fielder Eric Byrnes, who both plays and grows his hair with reckless abandon, basically constitute everyone leading the way. They'll miss the sage presence of Craig Counsel and Gonzo.
The hurlers, however, do have some years under its belt. But as the saying goes, "age before beauty." In the case of the D-Backs staff, it's hard to expect much in the way of foxy results. Reigning Cy winner Brandon Webb- who could actually give Derek Lowe sinker lessons- is obviously a killer, but from there, only question marks or nervousness reign. The Unit is back and still sparks intimidation like few in baseball. But his two seasons in the Apple were spent injured or getting knocked around and the Yanks were plenty jazzed to ship him out. If he can resemble the Randy Johnson that arrived in New York, Arizona's got a sweet 1-2 punch. If not, the pickings get even slimmer beyond Webb. Livan Hernandez eats innings, but ain't exactly scary. They imported Doug Davis after a so-so year in Milwaukee. Any wonder they'll likely miss Claudio Vargas (whom Milwaukee netted in exchange) and Miguel Batista (destined to become a Seattle coffeehouse poetry slam legend)? Closer Jose Valverde's hot start last season went colder than Anna Nicole Smith's body temperature once batter starting figuring out a pattern: Dude throws everything down the middle. He'll look to rebound and flourish from Jorge Julio and Juan Cruz's solid set up.
Does that description strike you as a lot of "ifs?" Me too. Because of that, I've read opinions projecting Arizona doing everything from winning the West to finishing fourth. I thinking somewhere closer to the latter. I have a feeling Randy Johnson's determined to close out his career on a high-ish note and those kids all sport promising bats (which could improve 2006's middling homer totals). But the West will be competitive (if not necessarily great), which means the Diamondbacks could get squeezed a bit even if progress is technically being made.
Prediction: 81-81 (3rd in the West)
AK
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Of course we can't say for sure how it will work out, but I wonder how the Rangers feel right now about their contract with Gagne. Considering his recent history, I've got to believe that he is going to have a difficult time coming back. Had he been able to jump right out of the gate, it would have seemed he was truly on his way back.
This is a far cry from his pronouncement a couple of weeks ago that he'd "never felt better." On the one hand, remembering all that he did with the Dodgers, it is sad.
However, his apparent greediness got the better of him. He knew the goals of an incentive-laden contract were unattainable. Showed his real colors.
Posted by: Chunkdog32 | March 30, 2007 at 07:06 PM
"He knew the goals of an incentive-laden contract were unattainable. . ."
Well said, Chuck, well said. . .
Posted by: DodgerBlueBalls | March 30, 2007 at 11:22 PM
C Dog,
Gagne just placed an add in todays LA Times Sports Section thanking all the Dodger fans for all their support throughtout the years. I kinda felt it wasn't sincere b/c he bolted and said prior that he didn't feel he owed anything to the Dodgers and their fans. The timing of his message seemed odd, on the day that it was announced that he will be on the DL list. Is he thankful now that he can no longer pitch and will be booed by the Ranger fans or did he really know he was done and actually did us Dodger fans a true service by not signing back with the Dodgers, therefore letting the Dodgers move forward w/o him. In any case, I only wish the best for the guy, he gave Dodger fans a few years of the BEST CLOSER EVER to play baseball.
Posted by: Rob | March 31, 2007 at 12:12 AM
Rob,
In 1959 (yeah, I'm that old) longtime Dodger Carl Erskine retired, part way into the season, knowing that he just couldn't contribute anymore. That allowed the Dodgers to promote a then-young Roger Craig, who helped to propel them to an improbable World Series Championship.
That's how you allow a team to move on. Sticking another team with an over 6 million dollar bill isn't.
By the way, during last night's game, Vin mentioned that Gary Matthews, Jr. says he "found the light" while playing winter ball in Australia. Isn't that where Sly Stallone just got popped for possession of HGH? Hmmmmmm.
Posted by: Chunkdog32 | March 31, 2007 at 08:23 AM
By the way, fans. After 2 games at Dodger Stadium with moderate crowds, anybody out there got opinions/evaluations of the new, pricey, parking plan?
Is it any better? Are the walks horrendous? Are there enough lanes open at the exits? Are there enough attendants to assist with the exits?
Posted by: Chunkdog32 | March 31, 2007 at 08:53 AM
Exactly, Chunkdog. If you would like to see ta textbook example of burning one's bridges, one only need to refer to Eric Gagne's comments and business decision prior to the start of this season.
It would have been nice to have Gagne finish his career with the Dodgers. As I have said before, this guy had so much cache with the fans that he was well-positioned to be a future Dodger ambassador after his retirement. I dare say he would have been up there with Fernando, Tommy, Sandy and Vinny. But he didn't. Those great memories of the him coming in from the left field bullpen with the opening strains of Welcome to the Jungle blaring over the PA, anticipating the foregone conclusion of him dominating the ninth, will never fade. But for me at least, the memories will always be slightly tarnished by his public remarks and ultimate decision in what amounted to basically sell out the Dodgers for $2M extra this season -- after taking $18M from the Dodgers to pitch 13 innings or so over the previous two years.
Time to move on. Gagne's 95+ mph fastball (he was once clocked throwing a pitch at 101 mph) is down to the mid-to-high 80s this season. That drop in speed should significantly impact his other two quality pitches (awesome change-up and drop-dead wicked curve) that he used to effectively devastate hitters in 02, 03 and 04 in 2007.
I strongly suspect Gagne will never reach the heights he reached when he was with the Dodgers. We should all consider ourselves lucky to have seen him pitch at his peak. For three years he was the best reliever of all time and he was ours, Dodger fans. But he sold us out for a couple of million bucks and that is a stinking rotten shame.
Len
Posted by: Len Penzo | March 31, 2007 at 11:51 AM
can someone fill me in on where things are at this point in spring training? right now, from what i gather reading the times and some box scores is (starter and backup):
catcher - martin & lieberthal
first base - garciaparra & loney
second base - kent & martinez
shortstop - furcal & abreu
third base - betemit & saenz
outfield - ethier, gonzo, & pierre
backup outfielders - bigbie, loney, anderson
starting five - lowe, penny, schmidt, wolf, bombko
bullpen - broxton, saito, seanez, hendrickson, billingsley
thanks much in advance. excited for the season to finally start!
Posted by: luke | March 31, 2007 at 12:24 PM
C Dog,
I guess times have changed a little bit since 1959. There definitely was a little more TEAM and a little less ME in baseball. And so, I'm a little immune to the selfish player who gets what he can in today's game. I think its almost expected and it's news when you do have someone like a Randy Wolf or Aramis Ramirez who took less.
As for the PARKING!? I went to the game last night and it really is funny. Besides having a few streets w/in the stadium partitioned off and creating as easier/safer walk to the Stadium from your parked car, there is NO DIFFERENCE.... still traffic and congestion... it's actually WORSE for those who knew how to manuver around the congestion. Now you're stuck being directed into traffic by incompetent employees. It's a group of people all hanging out in the parking lot in yellow shirts having a party and a few Manager types with Dodger tags walking around telling everyone that they are doing great and that everything looks good.... what a JOKE. I guess if you keep telling yourself something enough times, you might believe it....
Which leads me to defend why I'm happy Gagne left and feel he did us a service....had he stayed, he would have saved the Rangers $6 million but would have cost the Dodgers $4 million and our parking would have been $18/per car instead of the $15 and our tickets would have been raised to a new record high.
Posted by: Rob | March 31, 2007 at 04:33 PM
Luke,
Add Beimel and Clark, subtract Loney and Abreu, and that's probably the manifest list for the plane to Milwaukee. If Furcal goes on the DL, Valdez is the most likely replacement at this point.
Posted by: Makoto Ueno | March 31, 2007 at 05:41 PM