NL West Preview- San Diego Padres
It's going to be an interesting year at PETCO, especially for fans of old school, pitcher-centric baseball. And should said fans have a particular distaste for the long ball, all the better. Similar to a Catholic school dance, the Pads are constructed to prevent scoring, which is good because they'll produce runs like Peter Gabriel produces albums—rarely. In '06, only four teams scored fewer runs than the Friars. Only seven hit fewer homers (fortunately for San Diego, three of them were the Rockies, D-Backs and Dodgers). They did manage to finish third among NL teams in stolen bases, but 49 of San Diego's 123 moved up north when the Giants signed Dave Roberts.
The offense is now built around first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who led the Padres last season in homers (24), average (.304), and was a scant one RBI off Mike Cameron and Brian Giles' team pacing 83. Gonzalez has a sick lefty swing and should only get better. How the rest of the lineup will shake out is harder to predict. If Brian and Marcus Giles round back into their All-Star form, if rookie 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (brought over in a trade for popular and promising 2B Josh Barfield) gets it quickly, If Mike Cameron can keep his strikeout totals under, oh, let's say a million, then maybe the San Diego offense will be good enough to keep pressure off the hurlers. But those are big ifs. San Diego need not become a juggernaut with the sticks (like they were Tuesday, hanging three touchdowns and a field goal on the Rangers). Middle of the road will do.
Why? Because San Diego's pitching staff is, frankly, kinda badass. One of the few in the National League that stacks up against, and is arguably better than, the Dodgers'. Ace Jake Peavy lowered his ERA by nearly a run in the second half of last season, following a 2.87 mark in August with a tidy 2.43 in September. If that's the guy who shows up this year, bully for the Padres. Behind him, Chris Young (11-5, 3.46), who will guard Mark Hendrickson in any NL West pickup basketball games, and Clay Hensley (11-12, 3.71) are solid. They'll be joined by oldies-but-still-usually-decent-often-good-and-occasionally-greaties Greg Maddux (remember him?) and David Wells, who decided to stick in GaslampVille after making five September starts for the Pads last year. That's a solid bunch.
The bullpen is just as good. Scott Linebrink and Cla Meredith are top-shelf setup guys. And the guy for whom they're carrying water will do the trick, too. Trevor Hoffman (2.14, 46 saves) showed no signs of slowing down last year. No reason to think he can't do that again this season. If the rest of the pen stays solid, posting numbers against San Diego will be quite an exercise.
In the end, though, it'll be a shame those hurlers can't hit. And the offense is why the Pads won't threepeat as NL West champs, or win quite as many games as they did last year. But they'll be part of the conversation, both in the division and for the Wild Card.
Prediction: 86-76 (third in NL West)
BK
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It is always the same, Dodgers, Dodgers, Dodgers. I hope you remember what the stats were between these two teams last year. Expect the same. I assume you do not respect our shortstop Greene and his homers, and now we have power on 2nd, 3rd and left field. I suggest this will be a big long ball year. See you in the Gaslamp Quarter to party at the new Hard Rock Hotel next to the Stadium. Hard to do that in LA.
Posted by: taxman86 | March 29, 2007 at 12:48 PM
BK,
Nice analysis. I agree with you that the Padres strength is clearly in their pitching. However, I think you have overlooked some real questions in their starting line-up. Peavy is a solid #1 and I really like Chris Young. But the jury is still out on Hensley, IMO, and unless Greg Maddux is suddenly going to be able to pitch consistently into the 7th inning this year on under 80 pitches, he is going to put a significant strain on that very good Padres bull-pen by mid-August. As for David Wells, while he is certainly more than adequate as a #4 or #5 starter, his best days are behind him.
Still, the Padres are a pretty good team. I think you are only slightly over-reaching when you say they will win 86 games (I peg them at 84-78). I do expect them to challenge the Phillies and D-Backs for the wild card this season but, in the end, I think they will be beat out by the D-Backs (who I expect will come in at 89 wins).
Len
Posted by: Len Penzo | March 29, 2007 at 12:51 PM
Taxman86,
Your Madres are a good team and have tended to have the Dodger's number the past few years. However, before you count on Khalil "Sean Penn Lookalike" Greene, remember he spends plenty of time on the DL, the same as some Dodger stars.
As for partying at the Hard Rock, neither of us had much to celebrate as the playoffs unfolded.
Posted by: Chunkdog32 | March 29, 2007 at 02:01 PM
Taxman-
If Khalil Greene can stay healthy, he's got a chance to be good. But when does that happen?
As for "big power"... huh? Brian Giles' production has gone down powerwise, Marcus Giles was never a power hitter, and Kouzmanoff is totally untested. Unless you're referring to Sledge? Great name, not a power hitter. I don't think you need to hit home runs to win or score runs, but the notion that the Pads will evolve into a bunch of mashers is a little bit of a stretch. Could be a good team, but not a power team.
Thanks for checking in. And I've never been a big fan of Hard Rock hotels. But I'm sure it'll be a fun hangout.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | March 29, 2007 at 02:03 PM
Taxman,
It's true that the addition of a Hard Rock Hotel will help for the party atmosphere in the area surronding the Litter Box. . .I mean, the area around PETCO. And it's true that Dodger Stadium will never have the businesses and ambiance surronding it that PETCO does.
But, if you take a good look around Dodger Stadium, you'll see something there that you will NEVER see at the Litter Box of the Gaslamp. You will see six banners that say "WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS." And after October this year, Dodger Stadium will have 7 banners. . .
Posted by: DodgerBlueBalls | March 29, 2007 at 03:26 PM
BK,
The following website features a great article displaying the astonishing mental prowess of this season's Litter Box residents, the Madres. I'm disappointed you didn't feature a hypertext link to it in your San Diego team profile:
http://www.deadspin.com/sports/baseball/tom-jackson-might-refer-to-him-as-a-retard-247403.php
Make sure to have a bottle of Scotch and a nitrace balloon handy to kill enough brain cells so you can appreciate the sophisticated humor of the Brothers Giles. . .
(DBB's note: The Blue Notes bloggers do not promote nor condone this use of Nitrace & Scotch while blogging. And for the love of Pete, if a friend offers to tell you a joke he learned from the Giles Brothers - JUST SAY NO!!!)
Posted by: DodgerBlueBalls | March 29, 2007 at 07:14 PM
Game time!
Go Dodgers!
Go Angels!
LOL...I don't know who to root for, love the dodgers, love Vlad Guerrero (and some angels lol)...well either way I win right? haha.
Posted by: Faith | March 29, 2007 at 07:59 PM
Faith-
Poor girl. I can feel the conflict raging inside of you (haha). The good news? It's spring training. You can still root for whomever you want, because quite frankly, this game means absolutely nothing. And once the season starts, they're in different leagues. You're in pretty good shape, here.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | March 29, 2007 at 08:37 PM
LOL. Thanks. At least until the next freeway series lol.
Posted by: Faith | March 29, 2007 at 09:02 PM
steve lyons is a GAWD!! Who CALLS a 3x play? How cool was that??!!!
my advice. to steve..BUY LOTTO TICKETS>>>NOW...then buy Fox after he wins and fire the idiots in charge...
Posted by: grumpy3b | March 29, 2007 at 09:22 PM
cool...faith migrated back from the Fakers board...
:D
Posted by: grumpy3b | March 29, 2007 at 09:23 PM
Speaking of the Gaslamp...I forget the name of the brewery down in the Gaslamp district but they have THE BEST salmon fish & chips...awesome with the porter/stout they had there...it was a GREAT Sunday recovery mode lunch!
Beyond that...eh, not so much beyond 3 foot long freeway on-ramps and other interesting thoughts on building, ahem, "safe and insane" freeways...did I mention I HATE the SD freeways and have been loathe to go there because of the freeways there...but love it weather wise...
Posted by: grumpy3b | March 29, 2007 at 09:30 PM