Question of the Day- Andy LaRoche
The Andy LaRoche Era (cue majestic trumpets) began Sunday afternoon in Atlanta, and in a clear '06 flashback moment, was brought on less by a top prospect bashing down the door, but by necessity. In this case, the inability of Wilson Betemit to get rolling. In non-pinch hitting roles, at least. LaRoche was promoted despite struggling in spring training (.175, no homers, a single RBI) and at AAA Las Vegas (.235/3/11). Grady Little said the kid will get a legitimate shot to stay in the lineup, which brings me to today's question (and its natural follow ups, of course):
How do you think LaRoche will produce at the Major League level? Is it a good thing that he was brought up under these conditions? Do you think he'll give the job back at any point?
Part of the reason I was so keen (if I might borrow some British lingo) on giving Betemit every chance to keep the gig at third was to avoid a situation like this one- where a struggling LaRoche is brought up in part to be a savior of sorts. He's supposed to fix the offensive problem at the hot corner... except he wasn't even fixing any offensive problems with the 51s. So to show up at the big league level and provide a jolt to a struggling lineup is no easy task. It's a tough thing for a rookie to step in on a contending team and produce, especially when that production could considered necessary for the team to win. I prefer the ol' "Go out there, catch the ball, and if you hit .235 it's fine" approach. Dropping the rooks into the fire worked last year, though the collective high end production from Ethier, Martin, Broxton and (later in the season) Billingsley was a little surprising, and seems more the exception than the rule to me. And sometimes, of course, a team just doesn't have a choice but to make the move. The Dodgers may have reached that point in a week or two, but I don't know if they were quite there yet.
I don't believe it's a good idea to bring up a kid unless he's going to play, and have time to work through the slumps that are a natural part of the game. That seems to be the case with LaRoche, but unless he manages to get hot with the big club, the output at third may not be much higher than it was before. And none of this is to say that the season hinges on LaRoche, because it doesn't, or that if he struggles now he won't be a good player down the line. I'm not a scout, nor one of those Baseball Prospectus guys who can project a players big league stats with high fallutin' math formulas. All I know is that while the consensus is he'll be a quality player down the line, he didn't seem "ready" as of yesterday. So my expectations for him are low, and rolling my hands over my crystal ball (and yes, I do wear a fun, colorful, silky hat while doing so) I see struggles in his future. Honestly, I'm more concerned that he plays solid defense at third, something that didn't come easy down in Florida.
So am I wrong about this one? Is the kid going to blow up, ROY style?
BK
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Re: LaRoche,
If he wasn't ready to play at AAA, then how could he possibly be ready for the bigs now? He had two hard hit shots Sunday, but it would be a miracle if he produces offensively.
About Nomar- Am I wrong--but does he look like his legs are shot already this season. He seems to be lunging at the plate, rather than pushing off his back foot. Comments?
David
Posted by: David | May 07, 2007 at 03:22 PM
LaRoche showed some impressive power in his ABs yesterday, so that is definitely a sign of good things to come. I don't doubt that he will become a good (if not great) major league 3B some day, but I wouldn't count on him being the answer at the hot corner this year.
For the first couple of weeks, most pitchers are going to test LaRoche with their fastballs, but they'll gain the upper hand when they begin to see and exploit weaknesses in his swing, like they did Kemp last year. The question is, how fast can LaRoche make adjustments, and how much? I see LaRoche as having 35 HR power in the majors, but the question will be whether he hits .240 or .280+ with that power.
I guess the Dodgers are thinking pretty hard about cuts right now, since everyone seems to think that the team will carry 12 pitchers soon. Unless someone else goes down with a 'phantom injury', I think Valdez will find himself not a Dodger in the next couple of days.
Posted by: Makoto Ueno | May 07, 2007 at 03:33 PM
seeing how you're always wrong, I'd say that LaRoche will win the ROY.
Posted by: Moneyball | May 07, 2007 at 03:39 PM
David,
I think Nomar looks fine so far. Nomar is a pretty good situational hitter, and I think that what you might see as 'lunging' is Nomar trying to guide balls where he wants them to go, rather than where the pitcher wants him to hit. In order for him to do this, he needs to bend his front leg so he has a little more flexibility of movement in his torso. It takes away from his power, but it does let him hit the gaps.
If you watch the Dodgers lineup, the only players who have a 'power swing' with a stiff front leg are Furcal, Kent, Martin, and Saenz. Pierre and Gonzo definitely 'lunge', and Ethier gets his power through arm extension.
Posted by: Makoto Ueno | May 07, 2007 at 03:44 PM
Makoto-
I happen to agree, in terms of Valdez. It's hard to justify keeping him around when he's not hitting .400, since they already have Martinez.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | May 07, 2007 at 03:58 PM
Moneyball-
I'm not ALWAYS wrong. Why, just last Friday I predicted Spiderman III would do big business at the box office. I got that one right (haha).
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | May 07, 2007 at 04:00 PM
I also question this decision. He does not have a proven track record above the AA level. I hope I am wrong but this is a tough situation. Maybe this will light a fire under Can't-get-a-hit unless I am pinch hitting.
I am in favor of bringing up Loney and moving Nomar to 3rd. I believe that Loney can match Nomar's present production and if Nomar breaks down, he breaks down. Why is this guy so fragile anyway?
I would bring Kemp up and give him regular playing time subbing for any of the 3 outfield positions and send LaRoche back down.
Well, go blue. Hopefully, BP will continue his winning ways.
Posted by: Lex | May 07, 2007 at 04:03 PM
As i said two blogs ago ...i don't think now was really the proper time to bring LaRoche up...but he's got to be better than Betemit. on that note betemit's swing looks alot better when he pinch hits...he no longer takes all the good pitches and swings at the bad...who knows maybe this could work out for both players adding a higher level of competition between the two might get the fires going.
mak,
i agree with your accessment with nomar...he does change his swing with the situation
Posted by: K T USN | May 07, 2007 at 04:33 PM
Penny is blowing heat out of his nostrils.
7 out of the first 9 Marlins out on strikes.
Still no hits, if you are not watching the game, get in front of a TV now.
Fatty
Posted by: Fatty | May 07, 2007 at 04:54 PM
i saw a fair amount of nomar lunging today, too. he looks suspiciously like he did late last year: not spraying line drives like usual, lots of dp's, etc. little slump or is he breaking down?
Posted by: hinmon | May 07, 2007 at 06:58 PM
I like Wilson Betemit, but I also like competition and a productive third baseman. If LaRoche stays above the Betemit line (previously known as the Mendoza line)... then he should stay.
I wonder how Loney feels right now... geez.
Posted by: Stinger | May 07, 2007 at 07:18 PM