Deadline post-mortem questions of the day
The Dodgers surrendered their hold on first place after last night's 3-1 loss to the Giants. Randy Wolf is on the shelf for the foreseeable future- he said last night he won't pick up a ball until his shoulder feels "perfect." Fingers crossed, Derek Lowe will step back into the rotation this weekend... but can you be sure? Jeff Kent's hammy got yippy at a terrible moment. The offense that was humming at the top of July was back in hibernation by the end of it. The bullpen looks tired. James Loney and Matt Kemp have cooled off a little (what, they weren't going to hit .450?). And I hear the entire stadium has only three Dodger Dogs left. Three! That's it. Okay, I made that last part up, but if I had a Doomsday Whistle, I'd sound it. Why? Because the dramatic effect lends itself to the following two Questions of the Day!
1) The Dodgers left the non-waiver trade period with only Scott Proctor to show for it. Should they have done more? What would "more" have looked like?
2) Do the Blue have enough in the tank to win the NL West? Gloomy as things seem right now, remember this team is still only a couple games away from having the National League's best record.
My answers:
1) I do think the Dodgers let the deadline pass without getting a whole lot better- Proctor will help (almost any solid reliever would), but there are serious questions of overuse in New York and whether his outstanding '06 will keep him from finishing strong in '07. Ned Colletti indicated he wanted to find more help, but given the high cost- Colletti said nearly every player he was interested in would have cost players from the big league roster (or guys soon to arrive)- dealmaking was prohibitively expensive. I'd be more critical if some of the guys who switched teams were impact players. With James Loney now at first, there's no way they'd pick up the tab for Mark Teixiera, so that was a no go. He was clearly the best guy out there. Eric Gagne returning to LA likely wasn't an option. Octavio Dotel helps, but is he worth a high level prospect? Dan Wheeler? Kyle Lohse? Jose Contreras? God forbid. The best starter available was Jon Garland... and he didn't get moved.
None of these guys were better than what they'll likely get from Proctor, or by bringing up Jon Maloan and rolling the dice. Look at the names of guys who changed teams. Most are underwhelming on their finest moment. By the way, given the new reality of revenue sharing and teams understanding the value of young players, locking them up through their arbitration years, means deadlines in the future will likely look like this one. Slow and ugly. That cycle increases the value of quality young players even more. As it gets harder to find help during the season, it becomes that much more important to develop what you have. I don't think the Dodgers filled all their holes, but I'd be more critical if they had flipped Andy LaRoche for Dan Wheeler or something odd like that.
2) Yes, but they need to spend less time in MRIVille. I wouldn't count on Wolf for a while. While it's too early to say he's done for the season, the Dodgers almost have to operate under the assumption that his inflamed left shoulder won't cooperate down the stretch. Derek Lowe has to be healthy and effective. Brad Penny can't slow down. Chad Billingsley, who I believe is the "swing vote" that makes the Blue either a near-miss or a division champ, has to come through. After that, they need one good show a week from Tomko or Hendrickson. They don't both need to be good each time out, but one has to step up. Should those things happen, the Dodgers can not only win the division, but still could win an open (though improved) National League. Jeff Kent needs to come back soon, despite a nice game from Ramon Martinez on Tuesday. And while they're not going to score eight or nine runs a night, the Blue need to be in that four or five range. None of these things are a stretch, in terms of expectations.
The Dodgers managed to avoid too many streaks, hot or cold, and are still right there at the top of the division. Nobody in the West is likely to run away with anything, either. It's too early to panic. The Blue have two months of baseball left, and if enough guys are healthy, they can still win. Doomsday whistles aside. More help would have been nice, but there wasn't much out there that would have improved them dramatically (at least not without screwing over season ticket holders of the future), and if Lowe can't come back effectively, Billingsley falls flat, or Penny tires out, Octavio Dotel wouldn't have made a difference.
BK
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1) No, I don't think they should have done more. Keep the Kids. Don't settle for mediocre starters. If we don't go to the playoffs this year, oh well. The moves for SCHMIDT and WOLF turned out extremely bad. We gotta hit the market again in the off season and hope we get a better rotation.
2) I really don't know if they have enough left in the tank. I still think KEMP is a PROSPECT, and not a big league ball player yet. If our young guys slump, we could hit a big ugly wall.
That being said, our division opponents aren't terribly frightening. We will stay in the race because we're good enough to do that much, but probably not much more.
Posted by: Steve M | August 01, 2007 at 01:44 PM
BK,
While I agree with you on point #1, and I appreciate your optimism on point #2, I just don't see it happening. I'm looking at the pitching options and I don't see where the wins are going to come from. No team can withstand losing 3 starting pitchers, even though the Dodgers were probably better equipped than most when the season began. Penny will probably fade a little, Lowe will have a hard time with the injury, Wolf may not return this year, Bills is a coin-toss and will probably win 1 out of 2, Bombko and Stretch can only be counted on to win 1 game every two weeks or so. And that puts a lot of pressure on an already tired bullpen. Proctor was a good move, but that dude has already pitched in 52 games this season so you gotta wonder how long he'll last. I hope I'm wrong. I really do. At least Ned didn't sell out the future to try to hang on this season.
Posted by: LLCoolL | August 01, 2007 at 01:59 PM
1) While it's disappointing not to see a little more action on the trade deadline, I think the one trade is sufficient. There are only two priorities* that need to happen personnel-wise, but there's just no realistic way they're going to happen, so doing next to nothing is better than doing something just for the sake of doing it.
(*Those two priorities are getting a healthy quality starter or two, and getting rid of the dead weight. The price for starters was way too high and any deal that involved moving one of the kids would be too damaging to the team. Not to mention the fact that the only starters on the market were fair-to-middling at best. And as for the dead weight, no one in their right mind is going to take Bombko, Hendrickson, Seanez or Hernandez off our hands midseason. And while there might be a guy or two in Vegas who can get called up to replace them, there aren't enough to replace all of them.)
2) Yeah, I think they can still win the West. This midseason swoon is starting to become an annual occurence, but they always seem to pull out of it. Plus, that flurry of moves by the Padres (coupled with Hoffman publicly ripping the team for them) doesn't bode well for their future, so they probably won't be much of a factor down the stretch. The D-Backs, however, are a different story.
Posted by: Eric B. | August 01, 2007 at 02:21 PM
I really crack up at the "visitors" here that enjoy building themselves up by putting others down.
I'm no saint and I have responded to the insults with insults but I have never even thought of going to another teams blog and shooting my mouth off about how my team is great and yours sucks, glad your guys are hurt, etc.
I honestly don't understand. Is it fun? Does it come from bitterness? Immaturity? Does it make you feel a "little naughty"? What is it?
Am I missing something by not hating the other team?
Go Dodgers? Go Hendrickson (gulp...)
Posted by: Andy B | August 01, 2007 at 04:15 PM
Eric B
Yeah, the D Backs might be the team to beat depending on how much the trades helped the Padres.
BK
I thought somebody should at least have their finger on the panic button and you tell me it's too early. I'll trust your judgement, lol.
But if we keep winning 1 out of 3 somebody should keep it within eyesight...
Posted by: Andy B | August 01, 2007 at 04:27 PM
Andy B-
No, you're not out of line to, at the very least, make yourself aware of the panic button's location, and the quickest means of finding it from anywhere in the country. Make sure the keys to said button are always on your person, and that you have any security codes stored in an easily accessible place.
Better safe than sorry (haha).
Eric B-
The good thing is they don't need all of those guys to be good, just some of them. No team is bulletproof from top to bottom (no team in the division, at least- the Red Sox are lookin' swank these days for sure...). A healthy Lowe is key. Tomko (gulp) has given them some quality starts and might have a couple more in him. The thing is, at no point this season have I had the impression this team was really rolling, yet their still up there near the top of the league. That means something, I think.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | August 01, 2007 at 05:36 PM
1)After the deadline passed with no big moves I initially thought Coletti did good for not selling our youth. That said, my position has since changed. Looking ahead to next season, a lack of power will remain a problem especially once Kent retires.
With Abreu replacing Kent at 2B next year, along with the players coming back ,will we have enough power to compete next season? The crop of free agent power hitters available this offseason are few and are 3B or CF. Therefore trading for Texeira might have made some sense.
Money aside, who would you rather have at 1st Base next year? A legitimate cleanup hitter who'll hit 30+ home runs or Loney, who I like, but isn't going to be hitting 30 HR or batting cleanup anytime soon.
The best hitters available this offseason are CF'S Torri Hunter and Andrew Jones followed by 3B Mike Lowell and ARod. Coletti put us at a disadvantage by signing Nomar through next year and for signing Pierre, period(Look at Lofton's numbers this year for comparison: Better OBP, more BBs about the same runs in fewer ABs). Pierre is a rally killer who needs serious batting instruction: just because you can get your bat on the ball doesn't make it a strike. Grady should bat pierre 8th and ethier 2nd.
2)I love the Dodgers and watch every game religiously, but realistically, the Dodgers aren't going to compete this year. My definition of competing means being a threat to advance past the first round of the playoffs. We'll make the playoffs if Kent stays healthy, but won't advance.
Posted by: bt | August 01, 2007 at 06:22 PM
How bout starting MATT KEMP & ANDRE EITHIER consistently with GONZO?
Posted by: Aryan | August 01, 2007 at 07:07 PM
Teixeira would not be a power hitter in Dodger Stadium and would have left after 2008, Boras would have seen to that. So that was a non -starter.
Why worry about 2008 now?
Posted by: DODGER 1955 | August 01, 2007 at 09:34 PM
I'm new here, just wanted to say hello and introduce myself.
Posted by: reimberovic | August 16, 2008 at 07:20 AM