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Dodgers postmortem: Grading the hitters

Having taken a look at the pitchers, it's time to find out which position player gets to put his 2007 report card on the refrigerator door.  I can tell you if some of these guys have parents like mine, they could lose some television or video game privileges.  It was, overall, a frustrating year with the bats for the Blue.  Frustrating with the gloves as well (the lack of quality D being an often overlooked aspect of L.A.'s collective failure).  Both, with the pitching issues we've discussed, go a long way toward explaining why "blue" wasn't just a nickname but a description of the Dodger Nation's collective mood when the season was over.

So without further ado ...

Russell Martin: It's hard to argue with his consistency.  Until a September swoon, the lowest average Martin had in any given month was .284, with his low OBP (.327) coming the same month.  And while the power numbers were down in the second half (.492 vs. .438 SLG pre- and post-break), Martin consistently found his way on base, and was huge in August after it looked like he might have been cooked for the year.  And it's fair to say he helped carry the Dodgers through the first half.  Add all that to yeoman's work behind the plate and the respect of pitchers young and old who universally admire how he calls a game, and it's hard to find much fault.  Grade- A.

James Loney: No doubt the Dodgers offense would have benefited from his presence all season. The infield wouldn't have minded having his glove around, either.  Call it hindsight being 20/20 or just a bad call, but either way Loney showed over his 96 games and 344 ABs that he's a legitimate Major League hitter who, with his ability to hit to all fields and behind in the count, could contend for multiple batting titles.  And his September (.382/.429/.709, 9 HR, 32 RBI) was about as good as any month could be.  Grade: A.

Matt Kemp: He's frustrating, he's headstrong, he makes a lot of mistakes.  He's not a particularly good outfielder and it's pretty clear at this point that conventional means are not enough to keep him from rounding home through a coach's stop sign.  But Matt Kemp also showed that he's a big time Major League talent.  .342 BA, 10 HR, 42 RBIs in 292 ABs.  The encouraging thing about Kemp is that, despite his power, he's willing to go up the middle and the other way.  That he can hit homers to the opposite field is a nice touch.  He's got a lot to learn, but it's hard not to get excited about Kemp's potential.  If he grows and matures a little, watch out.  Grade: B+ (higher for hitting, lower for glove work, baserunning). 

Andre Ethier: Quietly, he put together another solid, reasonably consistent year.  The average dropped from .308 to .284 from '06 to '07- hardly a big problem- and in 50 or so ABs, Ethier had two more homers and nine additional runs batted in.  He was also L.A.'s best outfielder.  As he did last season, Ethier tailed off late, but I think he showed the ability to be a solid everyday player.  I don't know if he'll ever be a superstar, but should he round out around .290/20/90, that's pretty good.  And I anticipate stats like those next year, when Ethier will (barring trade, injury, or potentially bizarre signing) be the everyday left fielder.  The sort of guy that can be plugged in, then forgotten about.  Like a clock radio.  Grade: B/B+.

Juan Pierre: Wow.  Where to begin?  This one has a lot of levels.  First, it's not his fault he was offered and signed the contract he got, which I thought then and think now was an overreaction to the tight spot Ned Colletti found himself in after J.D. Drew jumped ship.  So try not to hold that against him.  Beyond that, Pierre had a very tough first half, adjusting to the expectations brought on by the deal, and to the whole "new city-new park" thing.  In the second half, however, the historically strong Pierre played well, with OBPs of .361 and .377 in August and September.  When it was all said and done, Pierre's final numbers (.293/.331, 196 hits, 64 stolen bases) were very similar to the ones he's put up for the last couple years.  Almost identical, actually.  He is, it seems, what he is.  Which gets you back to the first part, about the contract.  If Pierre can somehow get back to his .370 OBP days of yore, it'll make up for his lack of pop and pea shooter arm. Until then, he'll be the target of much fan ire.  Grade: first half, C/C-.  Second half, B/B+.  Overall, C+/B-.

Rafael Furcal: Nomar notwithstanding, there may not have been a bigger factor in the offensive drop off between '06 and '07 than Furcal.  Even taking into account that he only played in 138 games this season (vs. 159 the year before) every offensive number that matters was down for Raffy.  Average, runs, homers, steals, OBP, doubles, slugging.  The entire kit and caboodle.  In fairness, there is a MAJOR mitigating factor in this listing of foul numbers, namely that Furcal was not healthy almost literally from Day 1.  His spring training collision with Jason Repko basically derailed his season before it got going.  Given how ankles heal, it's hard to say whether extended time off would have done the trick, or what sort of impact it would have had on the Dodgers.  The thinking was 75-80% of Furcal was better than whoever would have replaced him.  There may be some truth to that.  But however you slice it, an ineffective Raffy made a huge difference in the Dodgers' offense this year.  Remember, we're talking about the guy who was very likely the team's '06 MVP.  Grade: An injury related C+.

Jeff Kent: At this point in his career, it's not reasonable to expect Kent to be the 35/120 masher he used to be.  Yes, there's still some power there, but not what there once was.  But aside from a torrid July (.447/.500/.737), Kent did little beyond what you'd expect from almost any player who bats cleanup in a Major League lineup for 494 ABs.  Obviously, threw were long stretches where Kent didn't have anyone to knock in, which impacts his numbers, but it's fair to say that the Dodgers need an upgrade from this spot in the order to compete.  Defensively, Kent still catches most balls he can reach, but unfortunately that describes an ever-shrinking number.  And the late season pop off combined with well established behavior patterns shows the Blue definitely need to make sure Kent's not in a position to fill any leadership vacuum next year, assuming he's still around.  Grade- C+/B-.

Luis Gonzalez: More fallout from the Drew defection, Gonzo was bought in to help buy time for guys like Kemp to mature at AAA.  Unfortunately, while the veteran left fielder still thinks of himself as an everyday player, the numbers don't reflect it.  Or at the very least, they don't support the notion that he's anything other than a pretty ordinary one.  Granted, Gonzo had over 120 fewer ABs than he did in '06 with Arizona, but he's clearly becoming more and more of a singles hitter.  His homers stayed consistent at 15- not a huge number- but his doubles dropped from 52 in '06 to 23 this season.  Again, it's not that Gonzalez can't hack it in Major League baseball anymore, but the days of him being a truly special player are done.  Guys who aren't household names put up similar if not better production (Ryan Ludwick?)  Over the summer, when the Blue were short OFs and the kids still seemed to need more seasoning, it looked like a no harm, no foul type move.  But on the field or in the locker room, where Gonzo grew increasingly disappointed with his lack of everyday playing time, it just didn't work.  Grade: C+

Nomar Garciaparra: For a while, it looked like '07 would be a tale of two locations- home and away- as Nomar struggled to hit anywhere that wasn't Dodger Stadium.  Then it became a question of whether or not he was going to hit, or even play, anywhere.  Nomar's power numbers were down across the board, with only seven homers, 17 doubles, and 59 RBIs.  That's down from 20, 31, and 93 in '06, in only 68 fewer at bats and one less game.  He did hit .373 with runners in scoring position, but it's hard to say this year was anything but ugly for Nomar.  Worse, the idea that keeping him healthy and in the lineup would matter is, in part, what kept Loney in AAA earlier in the year.  Grade: C-/D+.

Others:

Tony Abreu:  It was a promising introduction to the bigs for Abreu, who showed flashes of a potentially dynamic offensive game in 166 '07 ABs.  It's still way too early to say he's the future, but having him around next year will benefit the club.  Grade: B-.

Mike Lieberthal: 38 games and 77 ABs over a 162 game Major League season?  Can I have that job?  Grade: C. 

Andy LaRoche: Finished strong, or at least stronger, which should give him some confidence going into '08.  It's hard to learn too much from 96 at bats, but it does look like LaRoche isn't quite there yet.  More worrisome is his inability to stay healthy.  Grade: C-.

Olmedo Saenz: The one thing he's supposed to do is pinch hit, and in 62 tries he managed to squeak out a .226 average... which was great in comparison to his .191 overall BA. There's no denying that '07 was a disaster for Saenz, whose bat seemed to slow down considerably.  Great guy, great run in L.A., but it's clear his time has come. Grade: D.

Mark Sweeney: Hit .273 in 33 Dodger ABs.  He'll be valuable off the bench in '08.  Grade: Inc.

Ramon Martinez: May have been the most productive .194 hitter in the history of the game, as he was a full .100 points higher with RISP, and had some very big hits for the Blue.  Provided a steady glove as well, and has the added bonus of looking like skateboarder Bob Burnquist, but like Saenz, it looks like his time in L.A. has come and gone.  Grade: C-.

-- BK

Comments
benzo jones

Are you grading the Coaching/management next? That should be fun.

On a related note... can someone explain the suicide squeeze to me? It seems like such a high price to pay in such a simple game.

nick

Agree with most of all the comments/grades, although I think Ethier put up just about an A year, and Kent, despite some horrid stretches, deserves at least a B.
The reality is that, as a fan, I was excited any time Ethier came up in a tight situation. He, along with Loney, Maritn, and Kemp, were the guys I felt could really impact a game and blow the score open, even if it was just with a seeing eye single. That being said, I think it is apparent that the heart and soul of this offense lays with the kids. The four afore mentioned may not all be superstars (although I thikn that Kemp, Loney, and definetly Martin WILL be) at any time, but they are solid players who the fans can rally behind. They are OUR kids, OUR prospects, and that does make a difference. No Dodger team in recent memory has had this much potential and hype, but I think that, given a full season, the kids will produce.

My one and only hope is that Ned, Frank, and Grady (if he's still around) take a note from the pages of the Rockies and D-Backs. Both organizations put their teams in the hands of youth, and look where it got them. I have no doubt that our kids are better than their's (with the exception if Chris Young and Troy Tulowitzky) and that if we embrace them, we WILL succeed.

Rob

Wow BK,
You're really hating on the hitters! haha... All the stuff from the last post must of really made your day... all that LaRussa talk. I think you were a little hard on the veterans. They're going to retire/graduate and you really brought down their GPA... Kent will not longer be valedictorian... now he's really gonna be grumpy.

Package

BK
I do not think you are being fair to Nomar. He is graded C-to D+. Either is graded BtoB+ Etheirs average is .006 points lower than Nomar's. Andre did score 6 more runs and had 5 more RBIs. Nomar's grade is lower than anyones except Tomato. Nomar had a off year compared to himself but his hitting was certainly better than some of the Subs. What is your criteria for these grades. Are the grades to what is expected or are they too the rest of the league or too his own teammates. Keeping Loney in AAA was not Nomar's fault. All the other grades are pretty close to my opinion.

dcerros

What a hipocrite Bill Plaschke is writing on how the Angels owner needs to deliver on the promise of a championship to Angels fans, but yet he ignores Frank McCourt and the state of the Dodgers. At least the Angels are getting in the playoff. Why doesn't he writes an article like that about Dodgers ownership? I know why, 'cause he's best friend with Ned Colleti. Can someone please remove Bill Plaschke lips from Ned Colleti's ass?

Makoto Ueno

Looks like a pretty fair assessment. Martin and Loney are by far the most polished and talented position players on the club right now, although Kemp has the potential to become an A+ player if he ever gets his act together. I imagine a speedier version of Matt Holliday.

What we see is what we're going to get from Ethier. He's a 20 HR, .800-.850 OPS bat, which is not quite top flight RF material, but like you say, his consistency and 'fire and forget' qualities is a nice complementary piece to have on any team, especially if Loney and Kemp are ready to shoulder the offensive burden of the Dodgers for an entire season.

I think Kent has another 2007-like season left in him, but ideally I would like to see the Dodgers try to replace his bat with a 3B and put a decent fielder at 2B. I wouldn't complain if he's back next season, though.

Furcal will get better, Nomar won't, and the young guys will hopefully continue to develop... as for the rest, who really cares? Aside from Lieberthal, who should stay and get more playing time, the bench players are all pretty pathetic.

Andy B

.... strike three!!...
Just kidding. Good job guys.

I'm really anxious to see what Ned ends up doing. Some power would be nice but I'm not expecting much in that dept. HR's sure helped the D'Backs get in the NL finals though.

Shore up the pitching and get Grady to fine guys who don't try to move runners over next year and we'll be okay.

uclart47

BK-If you were a little lenient in grading the pitchers you are pretty strict here. I don't really disagree with your comments but I would raise Pierre and Kent to a B and Nomar to a C+. Also in discussing Kemp you don't mention possible attitude issues. Just a few clues here and there but if they continue they could land him on the trading block.

K T USN

BK,
Right on with the grades especially raffy...would like to have seen partial grades for the September call ups especially what you thing of Delwynn Young. i know a partial month is hard to grade a person but I would have given him an A to A- for hitting the ball hard every time up and also hitting behind the runners when needed.

Shelton Peters

The Dodger should trade Andy LaRoche and some cash to the Florida Marlins for 3d baseman Caberra. Getting Caberra would address two of the 2008 Dodger needs: an every day 3d baseman and a run producing hitter for the middle of thier lineup.

dave m

hey BK...........would torre be a good match for the dodgers?

Definitely Immoral

As good as a B-minus for Pierre? What, are you grading on a curve to make things fairer for the poor widdle guys who can't hit?

the WOLF

the grades are spot on. matter of fact, they could be lower for a lot of guys except for loney and martin. you guys forgetting the offense this year or what? it was pathetic, even for the national leagues. NO ONE hit in the clutch consistantly enough. not even close. dont tell me about nomar either. he was hurt most of the time. trade him for bullpen help. dont look at the stats, remember the games (if you watched them). the dodgers pitching isnt a concern. this team needs a clean up guy TOP proirity. ethier or martin should hit 2nd followed by kemp, the power guy, loney then martin/ethier and STICK WITH IT!!

furcal/pierre (or trade his ass)
martin/ethier (they are great 2 or 6 hitters)
kemp (i see him like manny ram hiiting)
power hitter (arod? hahahaa)
loney (hit them all in if 4th fails or start another rally)
martin/either (see above)
kent (last chance guy for runs in a rally)
whoever else in the last spots (out makers)

4,5,6 would be AWESOME!! put in the faster, better hitting guys higher up in the lineup (the higher obp). id even experiment with the pitching spot at 8th and if pierre stays, hit him 9th or furcal, whoever is doing worse.

the WOLF

"The Dodger should trade Andy LaRoche and some cash to the Florida Marlins for 3d baseman Caberra. Getting Caberra would address two of the 2008 Dodger needs: an every day 3d baseman and a run producing hitter for the middle of thier lineup."

you're joking right? think like the marlins then come up with a better scenario. matter of fact, pretend your the GM of the dodgers and someone like you asks for kemp, loney, or even billz with that trade. what would you do?

cjms

On a side note, is there anything more disaterous for TV execs than a DBacks vs. Rockies NLCS or a DBacks/Rockies vs. Indians World Series? TBS is freaking out right now.

Dodgers '81

BK,

I keep hearing mentioned that LaRoche has a bulging disk issue with his back and general comments about his health. Can you shed any light on this.

He strikes (no pun intended) me as the kind of young player the Dodgers need at 3B - he plays good defense and he has begun hitting the ball. I know he's not hit as well as the other young players, but sometimes players take a little longer than others. And even Ron Cey took a couple of seasons to work into the position. Everybody keeps saying trade this guy, but Baseball America named him the Dodgers No. 1 prospect last year (and 19th best prospect in the MLB overall) and projects him out to be a .275 - .285 hitter with 25-30 homers/year. It seems to me that you don't want to give up too early on a guy like this.

uclart47

dcerros-I think it has to do with expectations. Many people felt the Angels were the best team in the AL. Even when the Dodgers had the best record in the league, not many people thought they were really the best team.

Shelton-Ned Colletti would certainly be revered if he pulled that one off. The Marlins' GM might have to leave town though.

For all you Colletti haters-I admit he didn't have his best year and is overly fond of former Giants but the best trades are often the ones unmade. Despite many opportunities he didn't trade any of the young stars for a short-term fix this year.

Dodgers '81

BK, Mak,

I got to agree with you on Ethier. I think if you project his numbers out, he's probably a .280 - .290 hitter with 20 HR power. Not bad, but not great either (or Ethier).

I think, however, the Dodgers need some more power in the corner outfield positions. Kemp should come around next year with more power. Delwyn Young seems to have some power, but I suspect he's either trade bait or a reserve outfielder. I wonder if the Dodgers shouldn't try and trade for someone like Jason Bay of the Pirates. I know his numbers slipped in 2007, but in 2005 he hit 32 homers and 101 rbis and in 2006 he hit 35 rbis and drove in 109 rbis. Those are numbers no Dodger has put up since Adrian Beltre slugged 48 HR and drove in 121 rbis in 2004.

I wouldn't mind trading Ethier and Young and a minor pitching prospect (like maybe Greg Miller) for him. I suspect Bay will return to form, especially if he has some protection around him. He'd be a great clean-up hitter.

Brian Kamenetzky

Package-

When I do this, I try to balance production with expectations. Thus for Nomar, his expectations were to be a middle of the order bad and do roughly what he did last season, which clearly he didn't do. I wasn't blaming him for the Loney situation, but using it as a means to explain what the Dodgers thought they were getting with Nomar, and why they were trying to protect him. I think it's hard to argue that his production, especially for a guy seen as a middle of the order bat, was very, very disappointing.

As for some of the other grades, defense also plays a role. Thus, it's almost impossible for PIerre to grade out as an A (though again, I won't ding him TOO much b/c the Blue knew he had a bad arm when they signed him- in the same way that if you sign a career .225 hitter, nobody should be surprised when he hits .225...). Kent loses points for defense as well, as did Kemp.

And generally, I try to grade guys out with C being a real average. Not like school these days, where B is the new C. I don't consider C to be a slam on a guy- just average...

BK

Makoto Ueno

Package,

Ethier:

13 HR, .802 OPS in 447 ABs

Nomar:

7 HR, .700 OPS in 431 ABs

Less, power; 100 pt difference in OPS. I think that sufficiently explains Nomar's poor grade, not to mention that while his defense was pretty good at 1B, his numbers at 3B were none too impressive.

Rob

dcerros,
I've tried (removing P's lips from N's donkey) but it's stuck on there tight... suckhund?.. I think?

David A. Glendale

RE: Arizona and Colorado. The D-backs' youth are touted for their "baseball IQ." The Rockies have given all of their scouts a checklist that scores the personal character of the young players they're considering.

While Los Angeles is turning Matt Kemp into the next Barry Bonds, teams that care about being "teams" are flying past us to the top of the toughest division in the NL.

David

BK,
I think you gave Saenz a 'D', for old times sake and he is a great guy. Lets face it he batted .180, and was terrible when Grady started him and batted fourth. So if you factor in 'expectations', I would have to give him a F. He was the hitters equivelant of Tomko!!
David

Arthur Holmes

I think the Dodgers should concentrate on stabilizing the pitching staff. More work should be done with Mark Hendrickson. See if Sandy Koufax will spend some time with him. The hitting is enough with a good pitching.

Alevin

Too little attention to pitching and defense. When the Dodgers were a contender years ago, their pitching and defense were at least sound at some times excellent.

Improved bats will help next year but won't bring a winner.

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Andrew and Brian Kamenetzky
Andrew (right) and Brian Kamenetzky are hosts of the LA Times Lakers Blog, and contributing writers to ESPN The Magazine and ESPN.com. Additionally, they co-authored Fishing on the Edge, the autobiography of Mike Iaconelli, the bad boy of bass fishing and 2003 Bassmaster Classic champion. They grew up in St. Louis as Cardinals fans, but it doesn't impair their ability to Think Blue. After all, the Cards and Dodgers aren't even in the same division.

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