Dodgers postmortem: Grading the pitchers
NEWS UPDATE (10-5): The Pirates have fired Jim Tracy after two seasons. Guess that arrangement didn't work out well for anyone.
For all the talk of clubhouse dissension and mutiny, the beginning of the end for the Dodgers this season really came when the back end of the rotation dropped like the muffler on a rusted out '79 Malibu. For a team built on pitching, one that seemed forever incapable of meeting generally modest offensive expectations, it was too much to overcome. The ripple effect was profound. Not only did it mean trotting ineffective guys like Brett Tomko and Mark Hendrickson out every fourth and fifth day, but it had a residual effect on the bullpen. More pitchers throwing more innings, and, necessity being the mother of invention, taking stabs at players like Roberto Hernandez for "help." Add to that a less-effective-than-in-the-first-half Brad Penny and Derek Lowe at the top end, and the ugliness makes even more sense.
They'd have been better off losing two or three bats to injury (and of course, more reliable production from the offense would have made a profound difference, too). But regardless of what went wrong or didn't break L.A.'s way, evaluations still have to be made. So without further delay, here are my grades for the '07 Dodgers pitching staff:
STARTERS:
Brad Penny: A tale of two halves and one abdomen pull. Penny had ERAs of 1.95, 2.10, and 1.90 in April, May, and June. Then July, August, and September rolled around, at 4.91, 4.00, and 3.90. And where he managed 42.2 IP over six starts in June, he could only give 30.0 in six September outings, when the opposition hit .313 off of him. I can't help but think the strained abdomen Penny suffered near the end of July had an impact on those numbers, though he really didn't complain about it. Still, Penny finished the season at 16-4 with a 3.03 ERA, becoming much more a pitcher than a thrower. And his first half was so dominant, it helps excuse the bumpier go after the break. There are worse things than having him at the top of a rotation. Grade: A-.
Derek Lowe: Like Penny, Lowe was a much better pitcher in the first half of the season. Like Penny, injury (in his case, a hip) helped facilitate a slide. Unlike Penny, Lowe received such comically weak run support early on he couldn't put strong win totals together that might have made his overall numbers (12-14, 3.88) look better. Still, it's hard to ignore a 5.23 second half ERA that includes 5.93 in September. He deserved better at the beginning of the season, but Lowe's second half performance, even if injury aided, was only occasionally good, generally ordinary, and too often bad. Grade: B-.
Chad Billingsley: It's hard to find too much fault with Billingsley's first full season as a big league pitcher. Starting the season in the bullpen, he overcame a rough April and quickly became a very reliable reliever, allowing runs in only one of his last 15 appearances. Once in the rotation, he became the Dodgers' most consistent starter, and the only one to get better as the season went along. Billingsley's September ERA? 2.59. He still throws too many pitches and can be a burden on bullpens, but just as Penny helped keep the Blue afloat in the first half, without Billingsley's efforts in the second the Dodgers wouldn't have had the opportunity to undergo a September meltdown. They'd have been done at the end of August. Grade: B+/A-.
Mark Hendrickson: As a relief pitcher, at least early in the year, he was reasonably useful (3.69 ERA). As a starter, spot or otherwise, he was not. That, as evidenced by his grotesque 6.13 ERA, is putting it mildly. He may not have loved life in the pen, but it's a shame he couldn't have stayed there. Arbitration eligible, a season of solid work as a reliever could have earned him some cash. Instead, it's likely he won't be back. He never was able to step up with any sort of consistency when the Dodgers needed him. Unfortunately, when you need Mark Hendrickson to step up, it's probably not a good sign to begin with. And in September, back in the pen, he was pretty bad. Grade: As a starter, D+. As a reliever, C.
Brett Tomko: 2-11, 5.80 ERA before getting released. A decent April quickly devolved into something that could scare children and adults alike. About the only thing he was good for was finding an excuse or rosy glassed way to evaluate how he pitched. Grade: F.
Randy Wolf: There was inconsistency in his 18 starts, but through April and May, he was a valuable part of the rotation. The wheels started to come off in June before Wolf was put on blocks after a start on July 3rd. But his impact his absence had on the rotation and the season was massive. The Dodgers were six games worse than they were last year. It's hard to believe at least some of that wouldn't have been made up with a healthy Wolf available. The Dodgers shouldn't pick up his option, but bringing him back for a good price isn't a bad idea. Grade: B-, becoming an Incomplete.
David Wells: I have no idea how he managed to win the games he did, but Wells deserves credit for keeping the Blue in the game and the race. He couldn't quite play the Greg Maddux role, but he did provide a jolt before a couple ugly outings to end the season. Grade: B-.
Esteban Loaiza: An 8.34 ERA as a Dodger basically tells the story. Fair to say Loaiza didn't help much down the stretch. After a strong first start against the Cubs in Chicago, Loaiza had four more starts and never saw the fifth inning. That is not good. He did, however, have some Tomko-esque explanations on hand for why things went wrong. Uh oh. Grade: D-.
Jason Schmidt: Never was healthy and only made six starts. Grade: Inc.
RELIEVERS:
Takashi Saito: It's a shame the lasting memory of Saito in '07 will be the blown save in Colorado on the 18th that essentially killed any vestiges of hope for the Dodgers' season, because Saito had a truly remarkable season. 39 saves, a 1.40 ERA, 13 BB/78 K in 64.1 IP. 33 hits, and 10 earned runs all year. Between August 13th and that fateful day in Colorado, Saito made 15 straight appearances without allowing a run, and surrendered only two hits. In June, he allowed one earned run. Same for August. In the other ones, he totally sucked, giving up two in each. Seriously, pick it up, dude. Grade: A.
Jonathan Broxton: He faded down the stretch, but up until that point Broxton was among the National League's most dominating setup men. Over 29 innings in July and August, Broxton surrendered a total of three runs. Three. In June he gave up five, but four came in one outing. There's no reason to believe he won't continue to grow into one of baseball's best relief pitchers. Grade: A-.
Joe Beimel: The rubber armed lefty had a little bit of a backslide this year on the heels of an outstanding (up until the playoffs, at least) '06. Still, Beimel was generally a pretty reliable lefty arm, and was good more often than not. I'll be interested to see how much he'll get should the Dodgers offer him arbitration, which I think they will. Considering how hard it is to come by a quality pitcher, I don't see them letting Beimel walk. Grade: B.
Scott Proctor: He got off to a rough start as a Dodger, but Proctor finished off his 31 appearance season in Blue with a 3-0 record and a 3.38 ERA. 14 runs and 25 hits in 32 IP. And very quietly, Proctor put together an excellent September, at one point stringing together 12 straight scoreless outings. All in all, Proctor generally performed as advertised. Considering all the Dodgers surrendered to get him was the disappointing Wilson Betemit, that's a pretty fair deal. Having him around for a full season next year will benefit the pen, especially if Grady can resist the urge to trot him out 80+ times a year. Grade: B.
Rudy Seanez: Another guy who struggled down the stretch, giving up a lot of baserunners in September. But overall, especially given his relatively minuscule salary, the Dodgers got a lot out of the veteran righty. A career high 73 appearances, and there were stretches (particularly through June and August) where Seanez was quite good. He served the team well as a middle reliever/occasional set up man, and given that it won't likely cost much more than a million dollars of Frank McCourt's money to bring Seanez back, the Dodgers would be wise to do so. Grade: B/B-.
Roberto Hernandez: By hitting the 1,000 appearance mark for his career, Hernandez hit a remarkable statistical milestone in a Dodger uni. Unfortunately, that's about all he did. Very nice man, but a 6.64 ERA with L.A. indicates it's the end of the line. Grade: D-.
Others: Hong-Chi Kuo, downgraded for making my preseason predictions of grandeur look bad. D/Inc. D.J. Houlton/Eric Stults, both had decent moments, both showed why the Dodgers felt it necessary to sign guys like Hernandez in the first place. C-. Chin-Hui Tsao, could have been a contender, but got hurt, which is what he does. B/Inc. Jon Meloan, needs more seasoning. Inc.
-- BK
Subscribe to this Blog | What is RSS?
So, I guess it was all Stan Johnston's fault.
He's the first off-season hatchet job by Ned Colletti. I'm sure it was all an assistant trainer's fault.
So, by eliminating a long time Dodger employee, the Giantification of the team continues by former Giant Colletti.
Who's next Brett Tomko? Oh wait, Colletti already tried that one.
The only impression I can get of Stan Conte is by how he appears on TV.
He looks like a goof.
Posted by: wausroamer | October 04, 2007 at 06:16 PM
Penny; Bills;Schmit;Wolf; trade lowe and perrier for a starter
Bemiel; Brox; saito;
Posted by: PK-IN-THE-MESA | October 04, 2007 at 10:18 PM
Musings from the skipper:
I just went through the list of free agent starting pitchers, and boy, was it a sad list. Odalis Perez, Brett Tomko, Chan Ho Park, are some ex-Dodgers on the list. And for those who like veterans, we have David Wells, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, and Tom Glavine. Anyway, after reviewing the list, I think the Dodgers would be very wise to resign Wolf. If he would have lasted a whole year pitching the way he was in April and May, he would have won 15 to 18 games. But, the field is so weak, I would say that even if Wolf got hurt again next year, he would be better for the few months we had him than anyone else we could sign. I could think of a lot worse rotations to start a year with than Penny, Lowe, Bills, Schmidt, Wolf and Loaiza. This of course precludes a trade, but I am always hesitant about trading everyday players (especially if they are named Kemp, Abreu, Martin, Loney or Ethier) making little money, for someone who plays every 5 games, makes a ton of dough and is one pitch from not playing at all.
Wonder if Kershaw could be MLB ready by the All-Star break? Because, if the 6 pitchers I mentioned above plus a Houlton, Kuo or Stults in a pinch as a 5th starter, could get us to the break in decent shape (like this year) then maybe Kershaw could be a second half call up if we lost 1 or 2 of the 6 to injury. Also, if we can get a bat, plus having Loney, Kemp and a healthy Furcal for a full season, our offense may really be able to take more pressure off the staff.
Aside from A-Rod, maybe a package of LaRoche, Ethier or Young (they pick) and Stults or Houlton (they pick or maybe both) and several single or double A prospects and cash could net Miguel Cabrera. Everything I've read says that the Marlins will probably trade him or Willis this off-season. We'd certainly be young and able to slug with the likes of the Rockies who look like the team we'll be gunning for for awhile, unless of course they can't afford to keep these guys together or their pitching is just smoke and mirrors.
Wow how far has the NL West come. 2 years ago it was called the worst division in baseball, this year--4 teams over .500, probably 2 teams in the NLCS and thus 1 in the Series, plus the Pads tied for the Wild Card and the Dodgers had the best record in the league and led the division half the season. The West is making the other divisions look weak right now during the NLDS. The thing they all have in common. . . they are young and getting younger. The SF Grandpa's should be trimming about 8 to 10 years off their average age next season and will look to join the party.
Jeff Kent should be looking at the Mets and Phils when thinking about the pros & cons of age. The Phils were young and talented, the Mets older and more experienced. The "young and talented" won the day because they seemed to be hungrier and more emotional. The same way the youthful Rockies looked against the "veteran" Hoffman on Monday. The '74 Dodgers, also fit this profile--it's how I hope the '08 Dodgers will be. A team full of young kids who all came up together with a smattering of veterans who mesh into a formidable force that lasts for almost a decade.
Posted by: dodgerskip | October 05, 2007 at 02:06 AM
After the great Gagne run from 02-04, it was hard to imagine anyone being as dominant as a closer for the Dodgers. While he doesn't do it with quite as much flair, Takashi Saito has been equally effective. He deserves a grade like the kid in the Christmas Story movie dreams of getting on his theme.... A +++++++++++. As for Penny, I agree with BK that we could do a lot worse than having him at the top of the rotation. It seems like he didn't make too many batters swing and miss this year like he did in the past, but perhaps that was part of his becoming more of a pitcher like BK said.
Posted by: Va Dodger | October 05, 2007 at 04:48 AM
BK
Thanks for your thorough review. I think most would agree that Penny and Lowe were never the same after their injuries. Just like hitters who have 'slumps', so do pitchers once they have these 'minor' injuries. Furcal, Kent, etc produced when healthy, and hurt us when playing injured. I guess everione can't rest a month with their ailments.
The only real comment I have is about Scmidt. SOMEONE needs to get an F for his season. Many say we were sunk when Wolf went down, but it could have been handled if Scmidt was ok. So whether it was Ned for signing him when many felt LAST YEAR he had problems, or Grady for saying before Jason threw one pitch in February that he will be the opening day pitcher. , or Scmidt himself for saying that he was ok--his injury was such a killer--so someone has to get an F.
Also tomko-I think you graded him too HIGH!! Someone who contributed to TWO teams missing the playoffs needs a special rating all his own. Perhaps "L". "L' is the 12th letter in the alphabet--double 'F' and also stands for LOSER.
David
Posted by: David | October 05, 2007 at 05:33 AM
BK,
Also re Wells-It is amazing that he somehow was effective. He is clearly finished yet manged to win 3 games--one more than Tomko-who can bring it at 95mph.
David
Posted by: David | October 05, 2007 at 05:37 AM
Hey, who is that young looking guy playing in the outfield for Cleveland? Drove in 4 runs in a playoff game, both times very clutch. The Dodgers sure could use someone like him. Lots of experience, steady, still runs well.
Posted by: Chunkdog32 | October 05, 2007 at 08:15 AM
With all of the great tradition of great starting pitching in LA it is, as Vin would say, interesting to note that the Dodgers haven't had a 20 game winner since 1990 when Ramon Martinez won that many games. Chunkdog- The Cleveland outfielder I wish we still had was Franklin Gutierrez. I realize that the end result of the Gutierrez trade w/Cleveland for Milton Bradley was a good thing (we got Ethier from the A's), but Gutierrez looks very good in RF for the Tribe.
Posted by: VaDodger | October 05, 2007 at 09:33 AM
Jim Tracy is out of a job in Pittsburgh. He was doomed the minute the GM who hired him was fired in the middle of the season.
Not that the Dodgers should rehire him. I just think he's a good guy. Probably a better bench coach than manager.
I'd still like to see somebody like Kevin Kennedy or Kurt Gibson managing the Dodgers. Maybe in another year.
Posted by: Laker Seth | October 05, 2007 at 10:43 AM
Chunk,
(Shaking his head.)
Yeah, as much as I admire Juan Pierre's work ethic and good attitude, I have to admit that that guy in Cleveland would have been a better signing. We could have signed him for one year and then, if we wanted a free-agent center-fielder, we could have go after Hunter or Rowand.
Posted by: Dodgers '81 | October 05, 2007 at 10:48 AM
Bottom line, LA needs to trade for more pitching next year. Schmidt, Wolf and Loiza are big question marks. Kershaw is way too young to bring up next year, he needs more seasoning (remember E. Jackson). They need to either sign Hunter, Jones or A-Rod, and trade some of the young kids for a good starter; we need to bite the bullet and get serious, otherwise it may be another heartbreak season, and personally I'm getting tired of those.
Posted by: steve | October 05, 2007 at 11:28 AM
David
Don't you think the Dodgers should give Schmidt another chance?? Also, Loiaza, Hendrickson ect.,ect. Accountability is not a Dodger management strongpoint. You get plenty of chances under this team's management.
You are definitely right on target. Someone is definitely accountable for Schmidt. It certainly is strange that he never had velocity. If Loaiza's performance for the Dodgers this year is any indication they need to get rid of him now. Or everyone will blame him and not Grady and Ned for keeping him.
BK
Did you grade on the curve??HaHa The grades were definitely in line with my feeling. Those that are Ds and Fs need to go now.
Posted by: Package | October 05, 2007 at 01:22 PM
I've been reading this blog now for about 3 months. I'm 57 and have been following the Blue since their days in Brooklyn. I'm not as good as most of you guys in getting my point across in words, but I have got to say this: Grady Little is not the manager that will get the Dodgers to the promised land. Living on the east coast, it is not readily apparent that he has done so many odd things becasue I'm usually in bed by the third or fourth inning, so I'm lucky I've got you guys to clue me in on his ridiculous moves. I'm certainly not looking forward to him being at the helm next year. As a matter of fact, it's downright depressing and listening to his comments from the press conference I was appalled. He can't even talk a good game. I'm sorry, AK/BK, that you don't think that there is a better alternative out there, but one name that I'd like to see thrown around is Bobby Valentine. Remember, at one time, as a player, he was a very popular Dodger. Thanks, again, everybody for keeping me informed.
Posted by: ny dodger fan | October 05, 2007 at 01:24 PM
I wonder if there's any chance that some of Tracy's crew would like to come back to LA. I would love to see Jim Colborn back as pitching coach for the Dodgers.
Posted by: Makoto Ueno | October 05, 2007 at 01:44 PM
Mak,
Jim Colburn would be great. He'd be a clear upgrade over Rick Honeycutt.
But also think of this. With Walt Jockety out at St. Louis, it's unlikely Tony LaRussa will return as manager. What if the Dodgers could get Dave Duncan?
BK/AK
Speaking of Jockety. Since you two grew up Cards fans, what is your take on Jockety's firing?
Posted by: Dodgers '81 | October 05, 2007 at 02:10 PM
Package:
RE: Scmidt. I remember posting early in the season-Maybe after his 3rd start that he will be on the disabled list soon. I have read his story before. A pitcher is having unusual problems--walks, loss of velocity, bad location etc. First they say its just their release point, or mechanics --blah, blah, blah. Then within a couple of weeks they are out for the season. As for keeping him? Do we have a choice? He is like Pierre who will take him off our hands? Hendricson is out. Loaiza he is signed I guess we have to see what happens in the Spring. We will probably sign Glavine for 20 million.
David
David
Posted by: David | October 05, 2007 at 02:57 PM
Package,
BK doesn't grade on a curve?! He's just a easy grader... teacher whose class you want to take b/c you'll likely get a passing grade of C for just being there. The only reason Loaiza, Hendrickson, and Tomko got failing grades is b/c BK would have no credibility if those guys got anything higher than a D+... as much as BK is a nice guy, he needs to keep his credibility.
The Jim Tracey experiment. See Tracey just wasn't a good manager. He did ok w/ the Dodgers b/c the Dodgers played decent inspite of him. Likewise, I think if Grady went to the Pirates, you would see even more of the same thing... Last Place. Grady is lucky he has a shot in L.A.
Fall guy for Schmidt..... ok, I got one... Stan Johnstone. Well you gotta blame someone. Ned can't blame himself??!! Grady had nothing to do w/ the move... and Ned hired SF Trainer Stan Conte, so he can't just fire him now after only 1 year... it would look like Ned's fault. If you haven't figured out what I'm saying... IT'S NED'S FAULT! Ned needs to man up and admit when he f'd up. These are the weasel moves that Ned does that I have no respect for the guy..... have you noticed ALL THINGS RELATED TO SF since Ned got here has gone wrong. Pierre ?? .. SF Giants were the only team other than the Dodgers that wanted him. Dodgers outbid SF by offering extra 5th year. Schmidt?? Injury... Stan Conte?? .... more injuries this year than I remember from previous years. Tomko??... need I say more?
Posted by: Rob | October 05, 2007 at 06:20 PM
'81,
I like the Duncan idea, too. But something tells me that LaRussa won't be out of a job for very long, and that he will end up taking most of his coaches with him.
Posted by: Makoto Ueno | October 05, 2007 at 06:40 PM
Dodgers '81-
I think it's a shame that the Cards and Jocketty couldn't figure out how to solve their problems and make it work. At the very least, you want managers hired and fired for baseball reasons, not because people can't get along. My understanding of the situation is that everyone has a little bit of responsibility. Jocketty for not being particularly good at creating a solid minor league system (a problem that is killing them right now) and the FO/ownership for forcing a relationship on him that Jocketty objected to and never embraced. Or even really tolerated.
Meanwhile, everyone's going to end up worse off, I think. Well, maybe not Jocketty, who will be perhaps the best FA of the winter, player or otherwise. Ownership is getting KILLED in St. Louis, though.
Rob-
Who did I grade too high?
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | October 05, 2007 at 07:25 PM
Of course the Pirates fire Jim Tracy, I just don't see why they would hire him to begin with. They wasted two years with this guy when it's obvious he's not a good manager. Hell I could have told them that. That's why I don't get Dodgers management on why you would fire Tracy and then pretty much hire a Jim Tracy clone in Grady Little. I was extremely happy when Tracy got fire, but I'll be even happier when Chicken Little bites the bullet. I just hope it's sooner than later.
To those of you that are thinking about bringing any of Tracy's crew, you guys seriously need to go to church soon.
I hope I don't ever see Mark Hendrickson wearing Dodger blue EVER again. What a catastrophe!
Bobby Valentine as coach??? We're supposed to improve not stay at the same level. I still think Kevin Kennedy would be a perfect fit for the Dodgers, I'm not too sure about Dusty Baker.
Good riddance to Roberto Hernandez, Beimel, Rudy Seanez, and I know this guy is not a pitcher but I'm going to mention his name anyways Olmedo Saenz. What a waste of a position player! These guys all suck!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: dcerros | October 05, 2007 at 07:32 PM
How about Lofton...The offensive hero in both games...We could've used someone like that, right Chunk?
Posted by: DODGER FREAK | October 05, 2007 at 07:48 PM
Mak,
LaRussa got fired? When you say that he won't be fired for long, does that mean the Dodgers have a sudden change of heart and fire Grady for Tony... to make the KBros day??!!
Package,
Maybe that's why BK/AK are vehemently defending Grady.... they don't want to be in the market when LaRussa might be available. It all makes sense now. haha.. I think AK/BK feel about Tony how we feel about Grady..."anyone would be better"
Posted by: Rob | October 05, 2007 at 08:45 PM
BK-Your grades were spot on.
Jim Tracy wasn't a great manager but John McGraw couldn't win with that team.
Why didn't the Dodgers bring Kershaw up for one game in September, just to see where he was?
If Arizona and Colorado are the 2 best teams in the whole NL, maybe 4th place in the West isn't so bad.
Posted by: uclart47 | October 05, 2007 at 10:38 PM
Rob,
La Russa hasn't gotten fired yet, but his contract is up this year and it's looking very doubtful that he'll return to the Cards now that Jocketty got the axe. All kinds of rumors are flying about - that Jocketty will take over at Cincinnati or at Seattle. You can bet that Jocketty's first move as GM will be to hire La Russa as manager.
Jocketty would be a good fit at Cincinnati which has a good farm system that Jocketty could trade away for good position players. He would be horrible at Seattle which has an awfully thin farm system. Jocketty is more known for his wheelin' & dealin' than for his building up a farm system, which is why he got into trouble with the St. Louis ownership.
I wouldn't expect that either Jocketty or La Russa would come to Los Angeles, I can't imagine McCourt spending that kind of money to lure them here. Anyway, we have a good farm system, let's use it.
Posted by: Dodgers '81 | October 05, 2007 at 11:34 PM
Mak,
Yeah, I know. We'll probably never get Dave Duncan. I was just thinking, though, with all those great young pitchers coming up through the Dodger farm system, wouldn't it be nice to have the best pitching coach in the MLB to coach them at the major league level. In two or three years, once Kershaw, Elbert, & MacDonald make it to the majors to join Penny & Billingsley, the Dodgers are going to have one awesome rotation
Posted by: Dodgers '81 | October 05, 2007 at 11:41 PM