Lowell stays in Boston
Three years, $37.5 mil. So the third base options- perhaps you heard that A-Rod is off the market?- this offseason are narrowing (assuming you're looking for a change over what looks like a Nomar/LaRoche platoon, at least in the early going). Lowell's removal from the market probably serves, at least in the short term, to boost the value of Miguel Cabrera, and perhaps even Miguel Tejada. Basically, if you want a Miguel, it could come at a high price. Ned Colletti's comments on Friday indicate the Blue clearly have a ceiling on how many players they'll give up in a deal for the Florida star, perhaps an indication they're more likely to look for help via free agency, most likely in the form of another outfielder.
In that area, I'm still not a fan of going after Torii Hunter, especially given the numbers (I've heard 5 years at 15 mil per). The former Twin is being wooed by a bunch of teams, including the Rangers. Andrew Jones carries a distinct air of paying for past numbers rather than future performance. He's not the CF he once was (though still an obvious upgrade over Juan Pierre), and seems to have become a hitter so focused on hitting homers that he hurts you in other ways. Still, if last year was an aberration, he'd be a nice addition to the heart of the order. It would depend on the years and money. Aaron Rowand, in theory, is a good option, but again it would depend on the numbers. I don't think he'd do what he did in Philly for the Dodgers next year- I could hit 15 homers a season in Citizen's Bank Park- but he might be the best combination of all-around hitter and defensive upgrade. At least among the big ticket FAs.
So stay tuned.
BK

Here's the way I see it ...
1. If the money -- and length of deal -- is right, snag Rowland. He's a decent hitter and an above-average fielder. He's also a hard-working good clubhouse guy; the Dodgers can always use more of those (hint, hint Mr. Kent and Mr. Kemp).
2. If we're going to include Kershaw and Kemp in any big trade, it should be for pitching before hitting. With that in mind, go hard after Santana and give 3B to LaRoche and see what he can do if given 600 ABs. I figure Santana would cost us Kershaw, Kemp, Elbert OR Meloan and Delwyn Young. I'd rather give up those pieces for Santana than Cabrera.
Posted by: Scott True Blue | November 19, 2007 at 12:42 PM
... cue the hall and oates
"he's goooooone, oh I..."
I'm buying my LaRoche jersey, do they make 'em yet or do I have to use a Sharpie.
Posted by: benzo jones | November 19, 2007 at 02:14 PM
out in Foxsports by ken Rosenthal sources stated that the dodgers are now the frontrunners to land Miguel Cabrera. If they are willing to part with Kemp, Kershaw, and laroche. The price is hefty but we will get a hall of fame (on pace) player if he dont eat his way out. Ned better think hard and good bc we might be getting a superstar but we are also giving up 3 future stars.
Posted by: dodgerick | November 19, 2007 at 02:46 PM
Tim Brown is saying the Orioles and Dodgers are talking about a swap of Bedard and a Kemp package
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Ao9R3yO.cGOsRMAZwW2Ldf45nYcB?slug=ti-dodgersorioles112007&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
Posted by: lakevango | November 19, 2007 at 04:43 PM
Scott True Blue -
Well put! I've been saying that for awhile now: If you must make a trade, make it for pitching. Adding Santana through trades (Kemp, Kershaw, etc), and signing Rowand would seem to complete the Dodgers offseason plans for me. I like Rowand the best of the big 3 CF free agents.
Furcal/SS
Pierre/LF
Rowand/CF
Kent/2B
Martin/C
Loney/1B
Ethier/RF
LaRoche, Nomar/3B
Santana
Penny
Lowe
Bills
Schmidt/Loaiza
And BK-
I like the idea of a Nomar/LaRoche platoon too. At worst, I think they can combine to hit 20 HR/80 RBI. That's not too bad for not having traded away talent and/or spending money. You're right about the "Miguel Value"... it goes way up now with the lack of FA third basemen (Arod & Lowell).
What about Delwyn Young? If not on the team as a fourth outfielder, could the Dodgers have him work out at third base, a-la Pedro Guerrero in the 80's? He started at 2B in the minors, right?
(Haha... BK. You can hit 15 HR's at Citizens Bank, I like that! Probably better than Pierre could do... maybe YOU can fill the Dodgers hole in CF cheaply...)
Posted by: Higgins | November 19, 2007 at 05:44 PM
By the way, I think this deal the Angels made today will lead to them landing Miguel Cabrera. Otherwise, it doesn't make any sense to me that they would trade their 2nd best offensive player/Gold Glove shortstop. We'll know more in the next couple days.
lakevango-
I just read that Kemp/Bedard story too. The guy hasn't pitched since mid August... I don't like the Dodgers obtaining another pitcher with arm injuries (re: Schmidt, Wolf). I think it's a BS rumor.
benzo jones -
I think Grateful Dead say it better than Hall & Oates:
"Like a steam locomotive rollin' down the track, he's gone, he's gooooone, and nothin's gonna bring him back."
Posted by: Higgins | November 19, 2007 at 06:01 PM
I'm hoping it's all just rumors, and nothing more.
Trading Kemp by himself is ridiculous. Together with other top young players is insane. Now that our young players have progressed to the point that they're on the verge of breakout seasons, some of you want to unload. The Dodgers have their own solid young pitching prospects, and there are more availalbe via free agency (including Japanese imports).
And why would anyone want to trade Kemp and a package of other young players/pitchers for Cabrera? The whole idea of bringing Cabrera or any power hitter to the Dodgers would be to assemble a lineup that gives no rest to the opposing pitcher. A lineup that doesn't allow anyone to be pitched around. Think how imposing a lineup with Kemp, Cabrera and Loney would be. Include Jeff Kent (even though I'm not one of his boosters), Delwyn Young or Andre Ethier, etc., etc., etc., and the Dodgers would score enough runs to support our already pretty good starting staff (and deep bullpen). And as noted above, there is the potential to upgrade that staff with rookes and/or free agents (and remember, I'm including Japanese free agents, of which, I understand, there are several).
Want a third baseman that can be had a lot cheaper than Cabrera, why not make a run a Adrian Beltre (.276, 26 HRs, 99 RBI, and exceptional defense, unlike Mr. Cabrera). Seattle is probably anxious to rid themselves of the final two years of his contract, and perhaps would be willing to take LaRoche, Ethier or Young, and one or more of the following serviceable pitchers, namely Houlton/Stults/Hull.
And if the above wasn't possible, I would feel perfectly comfortable starting the season with Nomar/LaRoche, with the hope that LaRoche would ultimately prevail as the regular.
I know the argument that part of the reason for assembling a strong farm system is to stockpile players that can be used in trades. But young players like Billingsley, Kemp, Loney and Martin have already provided strong evidence that they on the verge of being impact players. The Dodgers need to stay the course, and build on their young talent, filling in with a free agent here and there, and a player(s) obtained via trade(s) at a reasonable cost. I'm willing to gamble that the young players I've seen the past two years are the real deal. Dodger management will have to make the call on players that most of us haven't seen (Kershaw, McDonald, etc.).
Posted by: Brooklyn Dodger | November 19, 2007 at 06:46 PM
Only on a Dodgers Blog can we get from Hall and Oates to the Grateful Dead in a seamless manner.
Please let's keep Kemp.
Can we get rid of Kent? Those shades are really starting to get on my nerves.
Posted by: benzo jones | November 19, 2007 at 06:52 PM
Trade Kemp for Bedard?
That has stupidity written all over it something Dodger management is accustomed of doing.
If I was to trade Kemp it would be in a package for Santana, or Miguel Cabrera. Although I personally would not trade Kemp, Loney, Billingsley or Martin at all. Everyone sees the pontential in Kemp that's why they always ask for this guy. But really how much faith do you have in management actually making a good trade? Until I see it I have none.
Who the hell is Bedard anyways?
Posted by: dcerros | November 19, 2007 at 06:59 PM
Regarding the suggestion that Young be given an opportunity to land the 3B job, that's not likely, and probably not desirable either. It's my understanding that Young was moved off of 2B because he had hands of stone. Also, given the fact that he played 2B, there is no guarantee that he even has the arm to play 3B.
Posted by: Brooklyn Dodger | November 19, 2007 at 07:07 PM
It was a surprising but bold move by the Angels in trading Cabrera but Garland will be a nice addition to the rotation.
Maybe Laroche deserves a chance but acquiring a player like MC is an opportunity that doesn't come around that often. I don't mind overpaying a little bit but we're not giving up Loney or Billingsley and I would hope not Kershaw. The Florida scouts know their stuff. Remember they've started from scratch twice and won more championships in the last 15 years than the Dodgers have playoff games.
Posted by: uclart47 | November 19, 2007 at 07:32 PM
How about Ethier, Kershaw, and Laroche (who i would serve to the Marlins on a silver platter) for Cabrera? Makes more sense to me
Posted by: dcerros | November 19, 2007 at 08:47 PM
Guys-
1. The Marlins won't trade Cabrera without Kemp being involved in the package. Let's face it: he's our most attractive young player.
2. The reason there's been much talk about shipping out Kemp is the fact that he's the brash kid who disturbed the clubhouse last year. I've heard he's a know-it-all who is basically uncoachable.
3. Let's face it: the Dodgers didn't bring in Joe Torre so they could ride their young kids. When you add Torre, you have to make some agreement with him that there will be big moves made.
4. If I was runnning the Dodgers, which I think I could do better than Colletti, these guys would be untouchable: Martin, Loney, Billingsley and Broxton. The other guys can be had -- but only if it nets us a legit No. 1 starter or power hitter.
5. Cabrera, Santana or Bedard? I say you try everything you can to snag Santana -- a proven ace that's still young enough to be our No. 1 for years to come.
Posted by: Scott True Blue | November 19, 2007 at 10:04 PM
i think bedard is pretty legitimate, but im not sure if he warrants a straight up deal for matt kemp. hes one of the best lefties in the AL tho. wouldve led the league in strikeouts if he wasnt injured and if the orioles werent crappy he wouldve won 18 games for sure
Posted by: joeshmo | November 19, 2007 at 11:12 PM
Yes, I would agree. To keep Kemp and get Cabrera for Ethier, Kershaw, and Laroche would be golden. Hopefully the Marlins run out of patience and bite before the Angels can offer a better deal.
In addition, if we are able to sign a FA centerfielder like Rowand (hometown advantage!), our hitting would improve dramatically over last year. I don't think it'll be great, but there is that possibility if one of our youngsters has a breakout year.
Hopefully Schmidt comes back strong, and Loaiza gets back into form. If so, I wouldn't worry too much bout our starters. If (cross my fingers) all that happens, I really really really really like our chances for next year.
oh, and btw
I'm going to be the first on this blog to say this: Chan Ho's going to be a good pickup for our bullpen. Why? well the WBC wasn't that long ago!
Posted by: New Dodgershoes | November 19, 2007 at 11:57 PM
decerros
I agree with your school of thought. To give away Kemp, Billingsley, Loney or Martin is crazy. These guys are major league players, not prospects. If the Dodgers see trading any of them as prospects, they are sadly mistaken. They all have huge upsides. There is no risk to Florida to take them for Miggy. Kershaw, LaRoche, and Eithier have more risk even though Eithier is proven. We know what Eithier's potential is. If it were me, I would be hard pressed to trade any of the 1st four players mentioned. They are ready!!!
Package
Posted by: Package | November 20, 2007 at 07:40 AM
Package, DCerros,
I'll go even further and say that Loney, Martin, and Billz are legit stars in the majors! Martin is an all-star and gold glove winner and Billz has been more solid than any other pitcher in his 3rd year, by far. Loney lead AAA in hitting 2 years ago, .380 average and then hit consistently in the majors over .300 Solid all-star caliber. Kemp is the only one that there is any question about. BUT he has HUGE potential... and great raw talent... speed, power, and athletism.
Let me ask this of all our bloggers. Last year the argument was that the Dodgers NEEDED a Big Bat. Someone w/ power. I disagreed. After this year, find that I was wrong. So this year again we are looking for that POWER guy for the middle of the lineup b/c this team lacks HR's. SO... why would you want to trade the ONLY LEGIT POTENTIAL POWER guy the Dodgers have?? for pitching?? ... We'll have great pitching again and NO POWER. The lineup above looks similar to last years lineup of very good hitters but w/o any real POWER GUY. I'll be for taking a chance at Andrew Jones. He might be going downhill but if he has anything left, that's the only power guy I see in the FA market this year that would meet the criteria now that Arod is off the market.
So my conclusion is KEMP is should be Untouchable? right?
Posted by: Rob | November 20, 2007 at 09:30 AM
I will go one further than Scott True Blue: if Kemp fails to land Santana, trade him (and others not named Loney or Kershaw; Martin is untouchable) for Bedard before Cabrera. He is an outstanding pitcher who strained his oblique in Sept.; not a career-threatening injury. He is also relatively cheap through the next two seasons. Bedard is also left-handed and Canadian.
M. Cabrera will be a liability at third whereas Laroche will be a vacuum and an offensive upgrade at 3B if given the chance. The Dodgers can upgrade offensively at CF and then be done with it since Furcal will provide more production next season provided that Repko will be on a 30ft. leash during Spring Training.
Pitching and defense is how the West will be won. The Rockies's season was an aberration and a minor miracle.
Posted by: bigyoonit | November 20, 2007 at 10:48 AM
Bedard is a quality arm who has labored for a very bad team over the last couple seasons. Still, he's put up some good numbers, and is trending in the right direction. Last year he was one of the better pitchers in the AL, in every category except wins, which are generally more a reflection of the team than the pitcher. Kemp is a lot to give up for him, absolutely, but don't forget the Angels just gave up a productive hitting, Gold Glove SS in Orlando Cabrera for Jon Garland, who isn't as good as Bedard. I say this not to endorse the trade (though it would give LA a lot of pitching depth, which, of course, was a huge problem last year, or like the Angels, could be a precursor to another deal), but to point out the high price of starting pitching.
This, by the way, is why I think you can't trade Bills in a Cabrera deal (assuming the rest of the gaggle of young players is in there, too). Santana, maybe, but not Cabrera. It's too hard to replace top end starters.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | November 20, 2007 at 10:58 AM
where is Mr. TORRE in all of this???? Is he still shopping out in Rodeo Drive? Vacation's over Joe !!!! PLEASSEEEE help fricken Colletti make some sense out of all this stupid RUMORS which can be in way only turn out to be nothing but "STUPID RIDULOUS RUMORS"......How can you trade MOST of our great TALENT for MIGGY, STUPIDITY at its best. Are we really that desperate for a 3rd baseman? Let Laroche play another full year and if not share the field with NOMAHH and this guy will be a stud at third, MARK MY WORDS. Now, there is NO WAY you give up KEMP, KERSHAW, BILLS, LONEY, MARTIN and LAROCHE (in any combination) for ANYBODY!!! These guys are only a couple of years away from becoming ALL STAR caliber type players, OH did I mention MARTIN is already one.
Now here are some more reasonable trade proposals:
Eithier, Kershaw and Young packaged with Nomar and Kent for CABRERA
Kemp, Kershaw, Pierre, Kent, Nomar, and CASH for SANTANA
Pierre, Miller, Kent, Nomar for BEDARD
Can't think of more stupidity........BOTTOM LINE, if we are going to pull of a trade make for SANTANA or BEDARD, do something reasonable!!!!......Marlins want WAY TO MUCH TALENT FOR someone as lazy, work-ethicless as MIGGY, this cat will start tanking after a 2 3 years....it would be a very EXPENSIVE RISK....., SIGN ROWAND or HUNTER, maybe a couple of trades that would get rid of Pierre and some old bodies in that BULLPEN ie. Hernandez, Hendrickson and company and get ready for spring training baby.........
Posted by: JC Blue | November 20, 2007 at 11:58 AM
Am I the only person who thinks Ethier could actually play CF, if needed? Like, if Kemp can't (and I don't think he's ready, personally). And I'm not asking that rhetorically. I'm literally looking for people's opinions.
The reason I wanna know is because, in my opinion, if he can do it, I actually don't think an outfield upgrade is really all that necessary. Or at the very least, in and of itself. Obviously, if you're looking to bring in a Rowand to create depth to swap Kemp or Ethier out for P/3B improvement, so be it. But as a separate issue, I really don't think new blood in the OF is really necessary. And maybe people agree and are just thinking of this along the lines of bolstering other areas. Or y'all think I'm grossly overestimating Ethier and/or Kemp.
Thoughts?
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | November 20, 2007 at 12:59 PM
JC
As much as I agree with you that we should not pillage our entire crop of young guys, you are nuts if you think ANY team would make a trade to land Kent, Pierre, Nomar, et al. The trend in Baseball now is to go young. No one will pick up a 40 year old Kent with a huge salary and even bigger ego. And Pierre??? You think anyone wants that albatross? 4 more years at $11 million per for a guy who has hit a whopping 12 homes runs....in his career! It was a dumb signing by Ned, but would be an even dumber trade for anyone else.
The reality is that to make a big trade, we have to part with the young guys, at least some of them. Since we have not once heard Martin's name come up in any rumor, it is reasonable to assume that the organization has marked him as untouchable. Everyone else seems to be fair game, like it or not. The only trade right now that seems to be favorable to us would include Kemp, Billz, and Young for Santana. even then, it's a stretch for bith sides. As much as I love Santana and think he would look great in Blue and White, is it worth a potential perennial All Star in Kemp and potential Cy Young winner in Billz. I don't know.
I guess the key word is potential. We have plenty of it, but how has it all paid off for us in the past 20 year? So far, however, this has become one of the most conflicting and interesting off seasons I can remember in a long time. It reminds me that Baseball has one thing going for it that no other sport can boast...THE HOT STOVE LEAGUE!
Posted by: nick | November 20, 2007 at 01:10 PM
AK,
I have actually thought about that very question a lot. And yes, I do think Etheir could play CF, and even more, I thiknk he's talented and smart enough to become a Gold Glover out there. For the most part, he has handled RF swimmingly enough that it seems at least worht a shot to throw him in Center. The we move Pierre to left, Kemp to right, and the outfield seems to be pretty solid.
Posted by: Nick | November 20, 2007 at 01:16 PM
AK: I agree w/ you - let Ethier play CF. Rowand not much of an upgrade for the money. Not in favor of trading for Cabrera -- have to give up too much. Willing to let LaRoche try for a yr. Last yr's team was very good up to the All-Star break. Now we have much improved mgmt & coaching - let's play a consistent line-up and give Loney, Kemp, LaRoche a chance! If it all bombs, then make the drastic changes next yr. But at least we'll have given it a shot with the Dodger youth.
Posted by: Back_2_OC | November 20, 2007 at 01:20 PM
AK,
Your're not overestimating the two youngsters. In fact, I agree with your comment and I also believe that we should not panic if our beloved Dodgers do not pull off a blockbuster trade........I think we can agree on the fact that some of the past moves have proven to be mistakes, i.e...Martinez, Konerko, etc.... etc......With Torre on board, these kids WILL perform at a higher level and as I indicated in my personal comment, the only moves we SHOULD make is to sign a free agent OF, trade a REASONABLE trade for a PITCHER and improve our BULLPEN.
But, it will be interesting to see what NED does in the next few days.....
Posted by: JC Blue | November 20, 2007 at 01:27 PM