To A-Rod or Miggy? That is the question.
The Dodgers, unless they'd like to once again suffer the slings and arrows of
another season without production from the hot corner, need to upgrade. That's no secret. And with the news that Miguel Cabrera has been put on the block by the Marlins, the clear options for serious improvement have just doubled. From one to two, but still doubled. Now it's either Alex Rodriguez or Cabrera. Both are outstanding players, both would make the Dodgers better, and would (at least in theory) solve the third base issues for years to come.
So which way should Ned Colletti go? Assuming, of course, he could get either one?
A-Rod costs nothing but money. Lots and lots and lots of money. Cabrera costs less money- for now- but the Blue would have to surrender top talent to get him, both in the lineup and on the mound. Kemp? Billingsley? Kershaw? Broxton? Any combination could be out the door if Cabrera comes in.
So who is the better option?
To some extent, it depends on just how much the McCourts are willing to spend. But let's assume that if they shell out for 7/$210 mil (or somewhere around there) for Rodriguez, they're still willing to drop at least a little more cash to fill holes around the roster. And let's assume as well that if the Dodgers trade for Cabrera, they'll shell out the cash to extend him in two seasons when he becomes a free agent.
One line of thinking states that the Dodgers, if they were to trade some combination of players led by Kemp and likely a pitcher, would have enough money to give Torii Hunter the five years at $15 mil or so that he wants, and fill in some other blanks as well. That makes Cabrera a much cheaper option, right?
Well, sort of.
Remember, if the Dodgers trade three players they're counting on to play a role on their Major League roster over the next two years and beyond, those are players that need to be replaced. If those holes can't be filled from within the organization- always a dicey prospect, especially among pitchers- than either more trades need to be made, or money will have to be spent to replace those (cheap) players. Say Kemp and Bills (as headliners) go for Cabrera. Billingsley's slot will have to be filled by another pitcher, and given that Bills looks like he's got potential to be a number one/two starter, that's a pretty penny. You can't just say Clayton Kershaw steps in. After all, they'll likely need him down the road to fill in another hole in the rotation, and there's no guarantee he'll be ready in the next year or two to get big league hitters out on a regular basis. (And, as an aside, would you want to be paying Hunter that much scratch when he's 37?)
Plus, there's the more-than-minor issue of paying Cabrera once he burns his two arbitration eligible years and becomes a free agent.
A guy his age, with his skill, in a market where few top free agents reach the market in their prime? Cabrera might not make A-Rod money... but he could be close.
So that's one problem. Financially the "savings" that come with Cabrera could likely be wasted chasing production on a very thin FA market, and get eaten up down the road, anyway. Is there any pitcher out there you'd rather have than Billingsley? Not me. There aren't really any out there I'd rather have than Kershaw, and the guy hasn't thrown a pitch above AA yet. It's that poor a FA class for hurlers. So there's an issue of robbing Peter to pay Paul, here. Cabrera is absolutely more likely to be more productive than Kemp, but will he be more than Kemp, the pitcher they give away, and anything else that goes with it? Maybe, maybe not, depending on the replacements. But unless they can get Miggy on the cheap- an unlikely prospect- they'll create holes in picking him up.
Another is Cabrera himself. No question he is a supremely talented hitter. He is also quite obviously a supremely talented eater. It's as if he's trying to fill the Shawn Kemp/Oliver Miller role for MLB. He's already gettin' all swoll, and has shown no real inclination to get back into shape. It's hurt Cabrera defensively already- he's no longer even a decent third baseman, and I question whether or not he'll actually become a quality OF once that change becomes necessary (first base being occupied already for the Dodgers). But what really worries me is whether or not it will eventually to have an effect on his health. Will Cabrera develop those nagging injuries that can come with guys who don't take care of themselves? Is it a good sign when a player shows this sort of apathy towards staying fit?
Maybe, maybe not. Maybe he takes up organic eating and yoga this winter. But his waistline makes me nervous.
Again, I'm not trying to diminish Cabrera's ability. He's one of the best players in the game. That's not the point. But I think you can figure out where I'm going, here.
If it's a choice between signing A-Rod or trading for Cabrera, I'll take A-Rod every time.
Part of it is the simple belief that if you can "spend" money or players, I'll take money and keep the players. Especially when the conversation surrounds inexpensive Major League ready guys that will have to be replaced... often by spending money. And in the Dodgers' case, depending on which young players are out the door, the cash could very well go to players who aren't actually as good. So I question the actual savings- and that's a relative term when you're talking about spending millions and millions of dollars- that comes with trading to avoid having to pay Rod.
Beyond that, despite the difference in age, I actually feel more comfortable with Rodriguez as a player. Nobody is more meticulous about his craft than A-Rod. He may not be the ultimate clubhouse leader, but Rodriguez is scarily consistent as an on-field performer. (Cabrera, playing in an inferior lineup, ain't exactly chop liver, either.) And given how durable A-Rod has been over his career and the incredible shape in which he keeps himself, there's really no reason to think he'll become less productive as he gets deeper into his thirties, offensively or defensively. He's about as good a bet as you can get, without actually being able to see into the future (which, by the way, would be a VERY effective tool for a GM).
Forget your distaste for Scott Boras, or the feeling that A-Rod is something of a baseball mercenary. Forget the astronomical amount of money he'll make after signing. Assuming Frank McCourt won't just stop at A-Rod and will allow his staff to fill in the rest of L.A.'s holes, namely pitching, bringing him in solves a huge problem without creating others. Cabrera wouldn't necessarily be a bad move- remember, he is young and incredibly talented- he's just not as good a move given the presumed cost.
If the Blue sign A-Rod, maybe then they package some young players for pitching. But the way the financials of the game are evolving, I have a hard time giving up pitching without getting it back in return. If the Dodgers are going to cash in some of that youngster currency, I'd rather see them do it for Johan Santana than Cabrera.
It'll likely be a while before any of this supposition ends. It wouldn't surprise me to see both the Marlins and Boras try to wait each other out. Granted, the market for either player is somewhat limited, but should one move earlier in the winter, it could increase the desperation among the teams that missed out. Desperation equals more money/more prospects.
So get comfortable, and remember, the Dodgers could do worse than getting either one of these guys.
But give me a choice, and I'll vote for Frank McCourt to pull out the checkbook, hold his nose, and get Scott Boras (and his client) paid.
BK
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Cabrera must have a gastric-bypass surgery clause before we agree to trade for him. If he exceeds 225 lbs he must go under the knife...that'll keep the arroz y pollo in check. Primadonna also must have a demerit clause where he is fined for every team meeting, practice or event he is late to. He must also memorize John Wooden's book..en espanol.
Ahh screw it, he has too much baggage, just pay Arod $200 million for 6 years. $33.3 million/year to have the best 3B on our team. He has the star power/marketing pull that Cabrera doesn't have (unless you count nutrisystem as one of our future sponsors). Though, he may attract some new fans from the santeria faith to our games. Just what mccourt needs to get those 4 million fans.
At least Arod won't be making offerings of chicken's blood before games.
AK/BK..Who needs garlic ?
Posted by: bt1 | November 11, 2007 at 04:15 PM
Not even a mention of LaRoche? He's hitting the tar off the ball in the Baseball World Cup. He might be Matt Kemp - a few more MLB at bats. His ineffectiveness last season was partly related to injury, but there's also a learning curve from AAA to the MLB. We've gotten spoiled by Martin, Loney and Kemp into thinking a guy should come up from the minors and magically become a star-quality player.
I'm not saying I don't want A-Rod or Miggy. You've have to be an idiot not to admit they're both superstars, and Ned is doing the right thing pursuing them. But unlike some of the other suitors for those two, Ned has an ace in the hole. Standing pat is an option, an option that lets the Dodgers keep their young, cheaper talent, and save the $30+ million for something else.
Posted by: Vail Beach | November 11, 2007 at 04:51 PM
BK, nicely put.
Colletti's motto this offseason should be 'A-Rod or bust'. There is no way that Florida is going to trade Cabrera to the Dodgers for anything less than a package that includes Kemp, Loney, or Billingsley, who are the only truly 'untouchable' players in the organization right now (Martin, of course, he's obviously not going anywhere soon). Cabrera is an offensive force, but the Dodgers need his bat to complement the production of Kemp, Loney, et. al., and any trade involving the future ace of the starting rotation is just plain silly. The team will be left with just as many holes (if not more) at the end of the day. But if Colletti lucks out and he manages to convince the Marlins not to demand any of those three, then I say the deal should be done.
The way I see it, money should not be a determining factor in what the McCourts and Colletti decide to do this winter regarding A-Rod. I've written before that A-Rod pretty much pays for himself, with all the advertisement, merchandise, and media attention he will bring to the club. The dream of 4 million fans will definitely be reached multiple times over the course of the contract.
He is the only player currently on the market that could push the Dodgers 'over the top' in terms of serious contention, and he won't cost the team any young players, making it possible for the Dodgers to continue building on the foundation of Logan White's deep farm system even with a superstar at the hot corner.
If A-Rod can't be had, the Dodgers are better off standing pat. I'm not yet completely sold on LaRoche yet, but I have no doubt that he will be an adequate 3B at the very least, and he will play for very low cost over the next handful of years.
Posted by: Makoto Ueno | November 11, 2007 at 04:53 PM
I'm with you BK, I would rather see the Dodgers pay A-Rod tons and tons of money and fill a huge hole, than to see them trade the farm for a much more uncertain player in Miggy. I also agree that if you must make a trade, it should be for pitching. I still wouldn't get carried away with that. It may be necessary but it will prove to be a real gamble. The Dodger kids are ready, just not proven, but well on their way. To trade them now would be a mistake. I am thinking of Billz, Kemp, Loney, Martin specifically. Some of the much younger kids would be a better option but not pitching if it can be avoided.
As for Boras, he is just a necessary evil and if you want to play, then you gotta pay!! BK, one question that I have is do you think the Dodgers would entertain the thought of moving A-Rod to SS. Could it be that A-Rod wants to go back to his old position??
Package
Posted by: Package | November 11, 2007 at 05:04 PM
BK,
I've gone back and forth between my distaste for Boras and the hated thought of giving up youth. I think of all the reasoning you mentioned, the thing I would hate to see the most is the Dodgers give up Bills for anybody other than Johanna or somebody of that caliber of pitching.
My only other additional comment is that your comment about Cabrera's defense highlights a major reason to consider ARod. It looks like we will still have Kent at 2nd (I'm not as down on his defense as some but he is "old") and then we still have JP in the outfield. If we put Cabrera at 3rd we have a questionable defense again. We can't afford a 3rd position with either questionable range, questionable arm strength or questionable ability to bend at the waist to pick up a grounder.
Posted by: Butch | November 11, 2007 at 05:28 PM
Vail Beach-
I don't really put LaRoche into the equation, because he shouldn't be a factor. Not that I'm giving up on the kid. While he has to prove a lot at the big league level, he's young and has time to improve- my biggest problem with him is for a young player he gets hurt an awful lot. But if the choice is LaRoche or ARod, or LaRoche or Cabrera in terms of talent, it's not even close.
I hope LaRoche turns into a viable big league hitter, but if the Dodgers want to enter next year with legitimate title hopes, they have to make improvements that go beyond hoping for growth from LaRoche at third. Or at the very least, they certainly can't count on it.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | November 11, 2007 at 06:26 PM
The money that is being talked about for A-Rod boggles the mind. To think that he would be a bargin at 25 million!
But Ned please, no more that 5-6 years!
A-Rod to SS is interesting. Or 2nd base if Kent doesn't come back. Or 2nd base next year after Kent's gone. LaRoche's defense looked pretty darn good the last time he was up. I think the kid may be a good one.
Can Furcal be traded or (am I crazy?) move him to center field?
Alright, I'll okay signing A-Rod. I give the Dodgers my permission...
Posted by: Andy B | November 11, 2007 at 06:47 PM
It's interesting to listen to all this talk about A-rod, and Torre says he has a good relationship, and it's a better move than tying up Cabrera, but there's one thing nobody has really covered.
Why does anyone think, for a second, that McCourt is going to spend $300 Mil
for ANYBODY?
The stadium is already packed, and he probably still has a nasty stack of bills on his desk from the help he needed to buy this team.
Why, Why, Why does anyone think he'll do it?
Why, why, why does anyone think Artie Moreno will do it? Cash is rolling in, the park is full.
These guys are businessman, they're here to make $. There's alot of costs in bringing a-rod to this market, and neither one has yet to show they want to win a world series now. Or ever.
There's a reason the Sox won. they invested in the players that could win a series.
The dodgers or angels? Not since Moreno and McCourt showed up. We're still waiting, and don't hold your breath.
Posted by: jim | November 11, 2007 at 06:49 PM
Men your digest was well done and I loved it so much!
Despite I'm Yankees fan but it doesn't mean I have to accept that awful things within this period the Boss's sons done.
None respect treated to Torre first and hopeless to Mattingly continued, but the most unforgivable thing is close the door to negotiate A-Rod?
It's really piece me of, why just a bit of expertise comments like you gentlemen to disclosing the root fact.
Speak frankly, I'd like to say that A-Rod just like a Hollywood super star try best to acting and performing each game to satisfy many lot of audiences, not to mentioned he try hard as he can to keep his good shape for viewing.
A-Rod never and ever forget his core value is keep good health and shape then bring them to the infield to demonstrate grate talent show for huge fans.
And prove it that each nickle spend on him is worth definitely!
Posted by: Shawn Chang | November 11, 2007 at 06:50 PM
Andy B-
Regarding the money, I think that's why the $350 million figure was put out there by Boras' camp. It frames the debate. So you're right, if he eventually signs for $250, someone somewhere will think they got a (relative) bargain. That's one of the things Boras does well, is dictate the terms of the discussion, like a great politician in a political campaign.
Regarding the position stuff, if you sign A-Rod, he's a 3B. I wouldn't get cute adn start figuring out ways to move him around. Maybe to SS if they decide not to resign Furcal, but even then, down the road A Rod is going to be a 3B as he gets older. Might as well just leave him there. I like LaRoche, too, but you don't start moving guys like Rodriguez around to make room for him.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | November 11, 2007 at 07:18 PM
Pitching... we need pitching.
Posted by: benzojones | November 11, 2007 at 07:51 PM
Brian,
All I meant was that, unlike the Angels, Giants or Yankees, who really don't have an option at third base, the Dodgers can credibly walk away from an outrageous proposal by Florida. LaRoche might not be ready to carry the team on his back to the World Series, but everyone in baseball knows he's one of the top 2 third base prospects ready to join the majors. Having LaRoche strengthens Colletti's bargaining position with the Marlins and, to some degree with Boras. Boras will try to pit us against a (probably) mythical offer from the Giants and Colletti can come back with, "Okay, MacGowan can spend all his money on your man. We've got a blue chipper for 1/100th the price, who will still be cheap and getting better three years from now when A-Rod starts to decline. I'll tell Frank to save his money for Johan Santana. My old buddy Brian Sabean will be pleased to hear that."
Shorter version. If Ned looks desperate, he'll inevitably be pressed to give up more for either Miggy or Arod. LaRoche takes away the desperate look.
Posted by: Vail Beach | November 11, 2007 at 08:05 PM
Dodgers should do all they can to get caprera and really start forming a great team he's worth every pennie
Posted by: mike | November 11, 2007 at 08:44 PM
Dodgers should do all they can to get caprera and really start forming a great team he's worth every pennie
Posted by: mike | November 11, 2007 at 08:48 PM
I'm kind of torn between all three alternatives. They're damned if they do, damned if they don't. (Isn't that how it always is?) But in the long run, I think A-Rod makes more sense to me for the simple fact that even if McCourt dishes out the $30 to $35 million/yr for him, they still have a core of young players (Martin, Loney, Kemp, Broxton, Billingsley. etc) still at least 4 years away from free agency that they wouldn't have to gut the team to pay him.
Posted by: Mike R | November 11, 2007 at 08:56 PM
I'm kind of torn between all three alternatives. They're damned if they do, damned if they don't. (Isn't that how it always is?) But in the long run, I think A-Rod makes more sense to me for the simple fact that even if McCourt dishes out the $30 to $35 million/yr for him, they still have a core of young players (Martin, Loney, Kemp, Broxton, Billingsley. etc) still at least 4 years away from free agency that they wouldn't have to gut the team to pay him.
Posted by: dodgrdog88 | November 11, 2007 at 09:07 PM
With his affinity for former Giants I believe Colletti should target Pedro Feliz, just kidding. To get Cabrera I would want him to sign an extension now, not in two years and I would not give up major league pitching or Kershaw. If they can make a deal within those parameters, I'd say go for it. A-Rod brings a lot of empty stats but maybe that would be enough to get the Dodgers into the postseason. You could put weight clauses into Cabrera's contract but you can't put jerk clauses into A-Rod's. What it would do is signal the baseball world that the Dodgers are serious about trying to improve.
Posted by: uclart47 | November 11, 2007 at 09:18 PM
Vail Beach-
I hear you, but I'm not sure how much LaRoche will play into the equation. It could help Colletti feel better about his options, for sure, knowing that there's a kid with talent who could potentially grow into the position, but if he misses on A-Rod and Cabrera, they still have try and shore up that spot, even if it means trading LaRoche. The lineup needs a boost somewhere, and that's the most obvious place to find it. Maybe they import another CF and move Pierre to LF, but there's no guarantee, and while I love Rowand (potentially cheaper than T. Hunter) and Hunter would certainly be an upgrade, if it comes down to a Mike Cameron type, I'd keep shopping.
It wouldn't be a disaster for the Blue to have LaRoche as the opening day 3B, but if that's the case than upgrades would have to be made somewhere else.
But like I've written before, I really worry about his inability to stay healthy at this point in his career.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | November 11, 2007 at 09:21 PM
uclart-
I think you're a little harsh on A Rod there. There's no such thing as an "empty" 40/125. Just doesn't happen. Plus, he's a .300 hitter with a good OBP. Postseason struggles aside, those numbers would be a huge boost to the Dodger lineup, and would also have a fallout around the rest of the diamond. Those guys batting in front of him will get more pitches to hit, for example. And I don't know if A-Rod himself is really a jerk. Team leader? No. Interested in making the most amount of money possible? Clearly (my least favorite aspect of his personality, for sure). But Boras is really the jerk, in my mind. But I wonder about a guy who would allow himself to be represented in this sort of way. In the end, it's the player's responsibility.
But that wouldn't keep me from wanting him on my team.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | November 11, 2007 at 09:27 PM
Ooops! Didn't realize my comment would post without me having to sign up for TypeKey. Lucky you all, got my post twice! :)
Posted by: Mike R | November 11, 2007 at 10:23 PM
Just found this on Rotoworld:
"Because of their astronomical asking price, the Marlins likely won't move Miguel Cabrera prior to the winter meetings, SI.com's Jon Heyman reports. They might as well shoot for the moon, as he'll still have a ton of value at the All-Star break. According to Heyman, the Marlins are currently asking for four top youngsters from inquiring teams like the Angels, Yankees, Dodgers and White Sox."
If they're asking for four top youngsters, don't you think that changes things a little? Personally, as great a hitter as he is, it really does make more sense to just pay A-Rod than *really* gutting out the future for one guy...
Posted by: Mike R | November 11, 2007 at 10:27 PM
BK
I agree that if it comes down to A-Rod or Miggy, take A-Rod. The reality is that signing Cabrera really doesn't help us a whole lot. If you expect 30/100 from him, then is the team really much better off giving up Kemp, who you could reasonably expect 20/75 from next year, if not more, plus Bills and according to Mike R's post, two others? In the end, Cabrera help us at 3rd, but ultimately leaves us with more holes to fill and a less hopeful future.
A-Rod, on the other hand, costs only (and I say only with a sarcastic grin) money. While I agree with some other posts that it is not too likely that Frank will shell out the trillion dollars Bros is asking, A-Rod still makes more sense.
Posted by: nick | November 12, 2007 at 12:53 AM
Dodger fan since 1945 (lived in White Plaiins then, now in RI); the Yankee fans then (kids) I remember as being, as now, obnoxious.
The Dodgers should go with youth for 3rd base, not a-rod or Cabrera. More fun to root for, and could be super stars for years.
Posted by: KenZ | November 12, 2007 at 07:19 AM
Here is what the Dodgers need to look like next year...
Starting Line-Up
1. Pierre LF
2. Furcal SS
3. A-ROD 3B
4. Andruw Jones CF
5. James Loney 1B
6. Keff Kent 2B
7. Russell Martin C
8. Kemp/Either RF
9. Pitchers Spot
Bench
1.Kemp/Either (Outfield)
2.Bernie Williams (Oufield PH)
3.Delwyn Young (Future 2B, trade Abreu)
4.Nomar Garciaparra Utility (Utility)(If Healthy & If he accepts this position)
5.Jaon Repko (Utility)(If Healthy)
Starting Rotation
1. Brad Penny - RHP
2. Johan Santana - LHP
3. Chad Billingsly - RHP
4. Derek Lowe - RHP
5. Jason Schmidt - RHP
Bullpen
1.Randy Wolf - LHLRP
2.Chan Ho Park - RHMRP
3.Joe Beimel - LHMRP
4.Jonathan Broxton - RHSUP
5.Takashi Saito - RHCP
We are going to have to trade Kemp or Eithier along with Kershaw and perhaps a few more prospects (LaRoche, Abreau, Meloan, etc.) to get Santana, but it will be worth it. With that said, forget Cabrera. We have freed up enough dollars this year to afford Jones as Torii Hunter is too old now. As someone already mentioned before, A-Rod will pay for himself so go get him. I say Seven years at $29.5M should be enough. In my own opinion, Kent is great to have back at 2nd for one more year. 6th in fielding (NL) last year, (which is extremely overlooked) and top 5 in everything offensively (on an off-year)for second baseman on both. Give Kent some protection with the likes of Andruw and A-Rod not to mention Kemp/Eithier, Loney and Martin and you have a very solid Jeff Kent back in the line-up. The guy will be hitting 25+ with 90+ again next year no problem.
Easier said than done I know, but I would still like to see this happen.
Smells like an NL Championship if you ask me!
C-Ya!!!
Posted by: DodgerDaWgs! | November 12, 2007 at 09:28 AM
Andy B Fucal to center sounds alot beter than JP, but does fucal havethe arm. If a-rod will take a short contract like 3-4yr would help but how about hunter he is a free agent or not.
Still i think the dodgers are allright with run production which will improve day to day with loney & kemp hitting 30+ hrs each next year. We really need another arm and to do something about JP in center
Posted by: PK-IN-THE-MESA | November 12, 2007 at 10:17 AM