Keeping up with the Joneses
The Dodgers haven't been a flurry of activity this offseason, as Ned Colletti has resisted the urge to send players- presumably young ones- out of town for some of the bigger names on the trade market. On the other hand, where the Blue have chosen to toss a pot on the hot stove, they've made some big splashes. Andrew Jones (fingers crossed) addresses needs the Blue have both offensively and defensively, while Hiroki Kuroda (fingers crossed) fills a big hole in the starting staff. Gary Bennett? Well, somebody's got to be the backup catcher, right?
But their NL West rivals haven't been sitting idly by, watching them improve. Well, not all of them, at least. As we kick off the new year, obviously things can still change, but it's as good a time as any to do a quick check on what the neighbors have been up to. Are the Joneses getting better or worse? Early indications are that the NL West once again has the chance to be baseball's most competitive division, top to bottom. Should make for a fun season.
Arizona (90-72): The D-Backs surprised everyone (or at least me) by arriving a year or so early and winning 90 games and a division title in '07. But they did it on the thinnest of margins, getting outscored 732-712 and winning an inordinate amount of close games, often in come-from-behind fashion. These things tend to even out year to year, but Arizona has made no substantive moves to improve their offense. Instead, they're hoping on internal improvement from guys like Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Justin Upton, and Mark Reynolds. Fortunately for them, those are some seriously talented young players.
But while Arizona has stood pat with the bats, they've made their pitching staff much better by picking up Dan Haren from Oakland. He'll slide in behind Cy Young winner Brandon Webb to give the D-Backs a very solid upper end to the rotation. In the bullpen, Jose Valverde, effective in '07 but historically shaky, was moved to Houston for RP Chad Qualls and a couple other bodies. That helps them, too, since Qualls has a much more stable track record, despite pitching in a band box. Overall, between the added arms and the expected growth of their kids, Diamondback fans have reason to be excited. I do think they'll have to score more runs to repeat, though, despite the shored up staff. VERDICT: Improved, for sure. If Haren makes the transition to the NL (which he should, since it's an easier place to pitch), the top end of the Arizona rotation is lights out.
Colorado (90-73): As active as Arizona has been, Colorado, who won a billion games in a row at the end of the season to snag the Wild Card and eventually make their way to the World Series, has effectively sat out hot stove season. Their big acquisitions? RPs Jose Vizcaino, Jose Capellan, and SP Kip Wells, coming off a wretched season in St. Louis. That won't move the needle much. The Rockies are, more than any team in the division, perhaps, banking on internal improvements to compete again in '08. The lineup should be fine- Holliday, Hawpe, Helton, Atkins, and Tulowitzki will all be back- but the rotation is still a major question mark. Aaron Cook was a nice surprise last season, and guys like Ubaldo Jimenez pitched some big games, but if you look at what they're competing against, there's nothing about Colorado's pitching staff that intimidates. Of course, the same could be said about last year's squad, which finished with what I believe was the lowest team ERA in franchise history. But any slip on the mound could be very bad news for the Rockies. VERDICT: Slightly improved in the bullpen (there have been additions, but LaTroy Hawkins is gone, and Matt Herges is still unsigned), but overall, about the same. That still makes the Rockies a good team, but since other teams have improved around them, it's a net loss for Colorado.
San Diego (89-74): The Pads have signed Tad Iguchi to replace Marcus Giles at second (upgrade), traded for Jim Edmonds to replace Mike Cameron in center (downgrade), and brought in Randy Wolf and Mark Prior as low risk, high reward ventures to beef up the rotation. Since we're already talking about a team that led the majors ERA last season, anything they do to improve that part of their team is a big ol' cherry on top of a pretty good looking sundae. If either Prior or Wolf is healthy enough to pitch effectively, the Pads will have a very solid group that starts with Jake Peavy and Chris Young up top. If both are productive, they're that much better. Prior may never again be potential ace he once was, but remember, San Diego really only needs him to be their fifth guy.
Offensively, though, the Pads will still struggle to score. Edmonds isn't the player he was a few years back, and likely won't be healthy enough to consistently stay on the field. They're hoping the improvement 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff showed over the second half last season isn't a mirage, and obviously Adrian Gonzalez can rake. But other than those guys, the Padres don't have anyone in the lineup who will scare people. Like Colorado, if their pitching slips even a little, it'll mean a drop in the standings. VERDICT: Calculated risks, for sure, but they're solid if Wolf and Prior can stay healthy. Losing Cameron could hurt offensively, and if Edmonds can't stay healthy, the defense in massive PETCO Park will suffer as well.
San Francisco (71-91): Finally, a division competitor that sucked last year, and still sucks now. They had arguably the worst offense in baseball last season, and a wretched bullpen to go along with it (that, for you budding GM types out there, is not a healthy combination). The signing of Aaron Rowand is a positive, but they've done nothing else to address the sticks and while losing the circus that surrounded Barry Bonds is a positive, losing his production is a negative. Any team that with a straight face says Rich Aurelia might get a lot of ABs isn't very good. In Barry Zito, Noah Lowry, Tim Lincecum, and Matt Cain, the Giants have a solid rotation, but that won't help them enough to be competitive with the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies and Padres in '08. This team was a train wreck when the '07 season ended, and they're still not on the tracks. VERDICT: No better, so no worries for everyone else in the division.
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Is it March yet?
Posted by: benzo jones | January 02, 2008 at 10:51 AM
All more the reason to keep Matt Kemp and Ethier in the lineup. The Dbacks and Padres pitching looks amazing, we are going to need all the bats we can get. I dont think there are many teams that would be worried if they had a rotation as deep as the dodgers, especially if Schmidt can come back to form. I think we still lack that true "Ace", but Penny and Bills are closer than most teams get.
It should be fun, I cant wait for spring. Go Blue.
Posted by: Blue Fan | January 02, 2008 at 12:16 PM
I largely agree with your assessment of the NL West. The other teams (except the Giants) will be good, no question. They will give us a run for the money but I only worry about the Snakes on a season long basis. The Rockies aren't going on THAT long a win streak again, no one is.
If we could get Santana (and yes, I know its not going to happen and if it did it would be at the cost of too much impact to the team as currently configured) would be the only way I would say we are the hands down favorite to win the division and hell, probably the pennant...all without significant injury of course. Barring that, we need no significant fall off from Penny, Billingsley to continue to develop/mature, Lowe to have a hell of a free agency year and Kuroda to be a solid #4. I'd love to see Schmidt come back strong but I'm not counting on it any more than I am counting on much from Loaiza....sure, both COULD happen, but it is best to plan for the worst when you hope for the best.
Posted by: Dan in Pasadena | January 02, 2008 at 02:07 PM
OK everyone, please help me understand why we should get excited about the Dodgers so far. The Dodgers have obtained Andruw Jones, coming off a very bad year. They have signed Kuroda who is unproven. Schmidt is questionable. The Dodgers have lost Gonzo, Wolf, Seanez. Wolf and Seanez accounted for 15 wins. Granted, Gonzo does not have the power that Jones does but based on stats the Dodgers don't gain much. It just seems to me that a lot of you are really betting on the come. If the youngsters come thru (Loney, Kemp, LaRoche), if Schmidt gets well, if Pierre gets traded, if Repko comes back and doesn't hurt anyone. ect.,ect.,ect.
Sorry, I just see the same old story, wishin and a hopein. Give Ned credit if you wish, if doing very little, if any upgrading. Just keeping the Kids just doesn't cut it. Ned is betting on the come more than you all.
Posted by: Package | January 02, 2008 at 04:47 PM
AK/BK
Whats your verdict on the Dodgers???
Benzo
Go back to sleep, its just January. Someone will wake you up if the Dodgers happen to do something earthshaking.
Posted by: Package | January 02, 2008 at 04:52 PM
Regarding Arizona, one player not being mentioned who could play a big role in 2008, is Max Scherzer. He may be at least a part of the reason they traded Valverde. This is from Baseball America in its issue rating the D'Backs Top Ten prospects.
"Some scouts who saw Scherzer as a starter at midseason wondered what the fuss was about. His fastball sat at 89-93 mph range, and his overall stuff, command, feel and delivery all drew questions. Then they saw him relieving in the Arizona Fall League and he was a different pitcher, touching 98 mph."
"Arizona's official opinion is that Scherzer is a starter. If he continues in the rotation, he'll likely open 2008 back in Double-A. If he moves to the bullpen, he could provide immediate help in the big leagues and has the pure stuff to eventually close games."
Of course, it's early, and Scherzer hasn't proven anything yet. However, he was highly touted coming out of college (11th overall pick in 2006), and it seems that he may have found his niche in the bullpen. Surely worth watching.
Package,
Saying that Wolf and Seanez accounted for 15 wins is a bit misleading. Are you saying that no other pitcher would have won any of those games? How many wins will Kuroda account for? Will it be zero? Billingsley should start the season in the starting rotation. Could it be that he might win more games than last year? Maybe even Schmidt and Loaiza will win a few games.
Perhaps Andruw Jones really did have just a bad year. And even in a bad year he hit 26 more HR than Pierre. Don't you think his defense compared to Pierre's might contribute to a few more victories? And what if 2007 was just a bad blip in an overall productive offensive career? And unlike Pierre, he will draw walks. Despite having a horrible 2007, Jones drew 70 BB in 572 AB, compared to 33 BB in 668 AB for Pierre. And I've looked at Jones' BB production in previous years, when the number reached into the 80's. Not so for Pierre.
And yes, I do have high hopes for some of the youngsters. LaRoche is still mostly unproven, and although I think he has the potential to be a productive player, I'm not naive enough to get overly excited. Loney and Kemp, on the other hand, are a different story. They hit .331 and .342, respectively. Loney's outburst of power in September was, I think, a harbinger of things to come. Kemp has obvious power, and it's not unreasonable to think that regular playing time will result in more consistent HR production. There is also no reason not to think that Ethier and Martin will follow the normal progression of young players, and increase their power production. But, perhaps the Dodgers would be better off with the declining 40 year old (41 in September) Gonzo.
There is no such thing as a sure thing. But the current group of players gives me reason for optimism. And by the way, I believe that Rudy Seanez will be in camp with a chance to earn a spot in the bullpen.
One other thing. We really don't know if Coletti is done. Might be that things will get better (or worse) before the season begins.
Posted by: Brooklyn Dodger | January 02, 2008 at 06:42 PM
Okay call me a Pollyanna. The Dodgers started off last year with a big lead, but they fell apart after the All-Star game when Little lost control of the team.
He was like Hamlet, incapable of making any adjustments.. He continued to bat Nomar third despite his horrendous numbers and after Andre was hitting over 400 for a month after the All-Star break, he was either benched or batted eighth. A wonderful way to bolster a young player's confidence. Pierre , of course, played every day . It was painful watching him hacking away at bad pitches and refusiing to walk. Someone ought to tell him his primary mission is to get on base, not to swat at mosquitoes. A friend of mine from Chicago pointed out to me that in 2006, Piere walk exactly twice during the entire month of September. Torre will change that or Pierre will be benched.
I think Torre will instill discipline and provide the kind of leadership that will bring out the best in these talented players. Okay, we are weak at third base and perhaps we need a strong middle reliever, but no team is perfect. Go Dodgers
Jim
Posted by: Jim | January 02, 2008 at 11:55 PM
Package-
I still think they're as good as any team in the division. There is no Boston in the NL, and while LA isn't a perfectly constructed team, they're competing against other imperfectly constructed teams. Health will obviously be the big thing, but assuming Kuroda is serviceable in the back of the rotation and Schmidt can throw reasonably effectively by midseason, the rotation is sporting some depth, and is very good at the top in Penny, Bills, and Lowe.
Offensively, they're not powerhouses, but they should score enough runs to compete with the rest of the teams in the West. Other than Colorado, there isn't a powerful offensive team in the bunch. Jones, even if he hits .260 (which he probably will give or take) will give a little pop to the lineup. A full year of Kemp will help, as will a healthy Furcal.
I see no reason to think this group is destined to fail. If they're healthy, they can compete with anyone. The same was true of last year, they just weren't healthy enough.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | January 03, 2008 at 12:06 AM
Package,
At the risk of coming off totally lazy, I actually just posted my thoughts on your question. Here's the link below.
http://sportsblogs.latimes.com/sports_baseball_dodgers/2007/12/a-year-in-the-l.html#more
Thanks,
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | January 03, 2008 at 12:31 AM
BK,
For sure, a healthy Furcal will go a long way to improving the team in '08.
I'm not sold on Andy LaRoche. He seems to be another Jeff Hamilton.
Posted by: Chunkdog32 | January 03, 2008 at 08:08 AM
Package
You must be an Arizona fan ? Gonzo better than Jones? I bet every other GM wishes you were the Dodger GM. Wolf and Saenz 15 wins ? Based on that stat a 11 man pitching staff brings us 82 wins.
Posted by: brian | January 03, 2008 at 09:31 AM
An opportunnity to unload Pierre:
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/03/swisher-to-the-white-sox/
Posted by: tio | January 03, 2008 at 12:49 PM
Brooklyn Dodger
It is not missleading at all to say that Wolf and Saenz won 15 games. They did. I am not saying that some of those games could not be won by other pitchers. But remember, the Dodgers still lost and somebody will have to win those 15 games before we get some gravy. And everyone else has to perform at at least the same level. Again with Jones, even though I do not think that Gonzo has the power of Jones, I know that Jones has to make up what Gonzo had before the Dodgers get EXTRA. As far as the Kids go, lets face it, it is very subjective. They might perform or they might not. I certainly hope that Ned has some other moves, because I certainly do not see a lot of upgrading from last year.
Brian
I did not say that I felt that Gonzo was better than Jones. I said that the Dodgers have not improved themselves much over last season. Am I incorrect on the number of wins that Wolf and Saenz acheived?? Also, because I question what is happening to the Dodgers does not make me an Arizona fan.
AK
OK, you are right you did comment on the verdict in the last thread. My mistake. I am sorry.
Package
Posted by: Package | January 03, 2008 at 02:29 PM
I always found it pretty pathetic that the best team in the NL only won 90 games last season. If the Dodgers can't compete with that (which they didn't last season), then I really don't understand what the hell is going on with this organization.
Remember the 2002 season when the Dodgers went 92-70 and finished in THIRD place in the NL West?!? Ah, the good ol' days...
Posted by: Higgins | January 03, 2008 at 04:55 PM