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Will Carroll wonders if the Blue have a good PPO

Last season, the Dodgers lost 951 player games and over $20 million in salary to injury, no shock for a team that seems to use half its operating budget on MRIs.  Will Carroll, the guru of sports injuries at Baseball Prospectus (among other places), has been issuing his Team Health Reports throughout the month, and has finally reached the Dodgers.  By Carroll's calculations, the Blue have the worst Three-Year health ranking in baseball, though things are moving in the right direction under Stan Conte: 

Stan Conte came in to improve the injury situation for the Dodgers. The idea may be that Stan's a miracle worker, having held together much of the Giants' successful years with little more than athletic tape and hard work, but rebuilding what was once a proud, cutting-edge system takes longer than a year. While the Dodgers are now in the middle of the pack, that's better than the three-year rank, so although they lost tons of valuable days to talent languishing on the DL, it wasn't as bad as it has been in the recent past.

Let's face it, no matter who the trainer and physicians are, they can't save guys like Darren Dreifort or Kevin Brown from the DL. The difference is that these days taking a calculated risk on someone like a Jason Schmidt or last year's experiment with Randy Wolf can be entirely valid moves. These can be the type of gambles that Conte could make pay off, and the cheap Wolf-style signings are easier to make pay off above a club's investment. The problem is that Schmidt is getting paid ace money while only offering a realistic hope that he comes back to league average.

The vast majority of the losses the Dodgers took last season came from those two pitchers, plus the season-long injury to Jason Repko. Taken in light of these, the turnaround that the Dodgers saw last season, taking them to mid-pack, was pretty special, but not enough to get away from the worst Three-Year Rank in the game. Conte's methods worked well in San Francisco, but it's interesting that the Dodgers had to bring in a Giant to do this. Like many things in the organization, the advantage they once had in this area was lost, but could be regained."

Carroll then breaks down the roster, looking position by position at the potential for injury.  I'm not going to paste the thing here- really, you should subscribe (these people gotta eat, you know)- but to summarize, here are some of the guys worth worrying about, in Carroll's estimation:  Russell Martin (rest issues), Raffy Furcal (lingering ankle/back issues?), Chad Billingsley (waistline issues), Anmar LaRochiaparra (really, does this require an explanation?), and Jason Schmidt (see previous).

BK 

Comments
Amy

I'm definitely calling both third basemen "Anmar LaRochiaparra" now.

KBL

Does the Times (Hernandez' article on the ST game today) really need to keep perpetuating the problem of the clubhouse rumors from last year? Has Kemp's base running really become a problem that it has cost us so many games? Kemp is young and he will grow and learn, but when writers keep citing the minor mistakes without mentioning the raw talent and other great numbers, it seems like they are out to burn the kid at any chance they get. If this level of scrutiny is going to continue with this paper, than at least apply it to the veterans too.

Anmar LaRochiaparra

Anmar LaRochiaparra... nice...

Package

BK
C'mon man. Nomar played in 120 games last year and 122 the year before. Some of the games he did not play in, was not his decision as (in case you forgot) Betimet was still with the Dodgers and LaRoche played also. Why are you so hard on Nomar's injuries since he joined the Dodgers? When you look at percentage of injury between LaRoche and Nomar, you find LaRoche is a walking medicene cabinet. Nomar must have kicked your dog.
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Bruce McClanahan

Schmidt was worth every dime because it made the Giants replace their ace, paying waaaay to much for Zito

Brian Kamenetzky

Package-


I'm starting to get the impression you don't actually pay attention to what I write. You think I'm picking on Nomar, but in this post, I quite obviously include LaRoche in with the health concerns, and if I've written multiple times about how I think LaRoche's health issues are a bad thing for a guy as young as he is. I've never anointed LaRoche as an All Star this year. I think he has more upside than Nomar, but that's hardly the same thing. In fact, I think he's likely to have some struggles.

I'd get deeper into it, but I'm not sure it would matter.

BK

Craig Phillips

DEspite my comments in previous post, I'm less concerned with the Dodgers and their players and manager than I am in the perception of them - which is different than last year. I have faith in Torre picking the right players, starting the most deserving, and picking lineups the right way. Something Grady wasn't always so good at (and I like Grady overall, but that was often an achilles heel). The dust may not settle on who's playing where until May, yet alone April, but I have faith in things playing out naturally. (Sort of like Darwinism.)

I like the idea of Nomar on the bench because he can play multiple positions, fill in as needed, pinch hit, etc, without causing wear and tear on his body. LaRoche should start, though yes, he too has body concerns. But with just some rest he should be fine. I like seeing Delwyn get playing time, the guy can hit so if he can just show mgmt that he can also field, he has a place, too. I'm excited about this team overall.

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BK
I am sorry but I keep getting the feeling that the spin is to give Andy the go. I would be interested to hear the deeper opionion you have. Also, I never said that you thought that LaRoche would be an all star. It just seems that those who would like to have LaRoche start from the git go are mentioned regularly. I felt that maybe the thought was to skew the opionion that Andy should get the job 1st. What say you?

Package

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Andrew and Brian Kamenetzky
Andrew (right) and Brian Kamenetzky are hosts of the LA Times Lakers Blog, and contributing writers to ESPN The Magazine and ESPN.com. Additionally, they co-authored Fishing on the Edge, the autobiography of Mike Iaconelli, the bad boy of bass fishing and 2003 Bassmaster Classic champion. They grew up in St. Louis as Cardinals fans, but it doesn't impair their ability to Think Blue. After all, the Cards and Dodgers aren't even in the same division.

Email: kambrothers@yahoo.com

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