Know thy enemy: San Diego Padres
Given how their season ended in '07, with Trevor Hoffman blowing two save chances, either of which would have landed the Padres in the playoffs, you'll forgive them for coming into this season with a chip on their collective shoulders. Sure, San Diego has won 87 or more games in three out of the last four seasons, and have two division titles as well. They've had some success, but the most important memories in sports are often the most recent. Still, they face an uphill battle to reclaim the NL West title despite a fundamentally sound, pitching rich team. The days of 82 win seasons cutting the mustard are long over, and in one man's humble opinion, San Diego lacks the sticks to once again reach the mountaintop, or reach the 89 win mark they hit last season.
2007 Record: 89-74 (the one-game playoff counts)
NEW ADDITIONS: Jim Edmonds (CF), Tad Iguchi (2B), Randy Wolf (LHP), Mark Prior (RHP)
KEY SUBTRACTIONS: Mike Cameron (CF), Marcus Giles (2B), Milton Bradley (LF), Doug Brocail (RP), Geoff Blum (IF)
STARTING ROTATION:
Jake Peavy (R)
Chris Young (R)
Greg Maddux (R)
Randy Wolf (L)
Mark Prior (R), though for the time being, Justin Germano (R) has the spot
Any discussion of the Padres has to begin with their pitching, as San Diego's staff ERA led baseball in '07 at 3.70. The starters are a huge strength. Jake Peavy was disgustingly good last season, cruising to a Cy Young award on the strength of a 19-6, 2.54 ERA season in which he struck out 240 batters in 223 innings, while walking only 68 batters. That's quality stuff. Behind him, 6'10" Chris Young, the best PF in the West now that Mark Hendrickson is gone, provides a great contrast from the left side, and while his win total might not have kicked ass (nine) his ERA (3.12) certainly did, and there's no question the big righty has become one of the better pitchers in the National League.
Greg Maddux isn't Greg Maddux anymore, but given how good he was when he was the italicized version, even the more pedestrian version that remains is still very solid in the middle of a rotation. (By the way, where exactly does one store 17 Gold Gloves? One, three, maybe even five I can see. But 17? Nobody has that much closet space.)
At the end of it, as Dodger fans learned last year, Randy Wolf can provide solid innings... if he's healthy (and as of Monday, he certainly was). The same can be said of Prior, who may not be phenom quality anymore, but still has good stuff. Or does in theory. Nobody really knows. The Padres hope he's ready to face MLB hitters by June, and if he pans out, it's a great low risk-high reward deal for San Diego, who could add top of the rotation stuff at bargain basement prices. But even if he can't be "that guy," or any guy at all, Germano is a capable substitute.
Behind the starters is a bullpen led by Hoffman (still good until further notice), Cla Meredith, and Heath Bell that is as good as any in baseball. With that staff, the Padres are rarely going to be blown out of games, and if they can get ahead, they have a very good chance of staying there. Last season, that league leading ERA shrunk down to 3.29 from the seventh inning on.
But it's that getting ahead thing that could be a problem:
PROJECTED LINEUP:
Brian Giles (RF)
Iguchi (2B)
Edmonds (CF), extremely brittle and already doubtful for Opening Day
Adrian Gonzalez (1B)
Kevin Kouzmanoff (3B)
Khalil Greene (SS)
Scott Hairston (LF, though he'll move to CF in Edmonds' absence, with Jody Gerut- remember him?- likely taking Hairston's spot in left)
Josh Bard/Michael Barrett (C)
As you can see, this is not exactly a Murderer's Row. Gonzalez is a great hitter, Kouzmanoff came on in the second half, and Iguchi is a decent upgrade over the Giles/Blum duo of '07, but after that? Yikes. Edmonds is a shell of the guy he was in Anaheim and St. Louis, and if he plays 120 games this year I'll be shocked. Giles isn't a great player anymore and is coming off knee surgery, and Greene, while talented and an excellent defensive shortstop, never stays healthy. The 153 games he played last year are by far a career high. The Padres were in the lower half of the league in runs last season, and actually could be less productive this year if they lose games to injury... as they most likely will.
The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have questions in the lineup as well, but not to this degree. Worse, both LA and Arizona should see improvements in run production, while the Friars seem to be Put it all together and I get the feeling San Diego will lose a lot of 3-1 games.
OUTLOOK:
San Diego is certainly a good team, and has a chance to win the division. Not a great one in my mind, but certainly they're in the mix. They'll throw the ball as well as any team in baseball, but the problems will come in hitting it. The Padres have huge health questions offensively in Edmonds, Giles, and Greene, and if any go down for a length of time, they'll be in trouble. It could be a very frustrating year down the 5 Freeway, as the Padres lose a bunch of squeakers.
PROJECTED RECORD: 85-77.
BK
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For the past three or four years all those in the know have rated the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Rockies among the elite farm systems. Arizona and Colorado have exposed their kids to the battle a little quicker than the "let's transition" Dodgers, and the dividends started to pay off last season. San Diego? While not as badly off as San Francisco, they've had to scrap for replacements, taking up risks like Maddux, Pryor, Bradley, Edmonds and Wolf. The Dodgers have gambled on some of these guys and players like Gonzo, but at least they were seen as temporary measures. As smart or as lucky as San Diego can be, they just can not compete in the long run with division rivals who invested in the future.
Of course, if they lead the league in ERA and if Hoffman forgets to join the AARP, this is all blown to Hell.
Posted by: Michael Burke | March 26, 2008 at 07:20 PM
Everybody's talking about the NL West being a four-team race, with the Giants wasting away in the cellar, but I think it's going to be a three-team battle. The Padres won't reach SF's levels of mediocrity (any pitching staff with Peavy, Young and Hoffman would never do that), but they won't be in the scrum for the division lead, either. I expect they'll plug along to a nice little (but unmemorable) .500 season.
Posted by: Eric B. | March 26, 2008 at 08:10 PM
If the Dodgers platoon Kemp & Eithier for Pierre, bat Kent higher then 5, bat Nomar higher then 6, and dont give Jason Repko the chance he deserves, there morons
Posted by: Aryan | March 27, 2008 at 12:59 AM
"Calm you must, Ho Chan."
I guess Torre is old enough to be Yoda... or maybe close.
Posted by: benzo jones | March 27, 2008 at 08:34 AM
oops... that post was for the next story.... oh well.
Posted by: benzo jones | March 27, 2008 at 08:35 AM
Pitching and Defense win Championships at the very least get you into the play-offs. The Padres had the best Pitching staff in MLB last year and they will likely improve on that this year with the addition of Randy Wolf at the 4th spot and a continuation of solid relief pitchers in Bell, Meredith and Hoffman. Their defense is solid if not outstanding at some positions like 1B, 3B, SS and RF. I agree that the 2008 Padres will need to show they could hit consistently throughout the season but playing in a Pitchers ballpark will favor the Padres again this year.
In my opinion, they should be able to win 90 games, win the NL West for the 3rd time in the last 4 years and make up for a 2007 season that fell just short of making the play-offs.
Posted by: Sal O. | March 27, 2008 at 10:51 AM