Know thy enemy: Arizona Diamondbacks

2007 RECORD: 90-72

KEY SUBTRACTIONS: Jose Valverde (RP, closer), Livan Hernandez (RHP), Tony Clark (IB), Carlos Quentin (OF)
KEY ADDITIONS: Haren, Chad Qualls (RP), Chris Burke (IF)

PROJECTED LINEUP:

Chris Young (CF, who may actually drop down to a run producing spot in the order)
Orlando Hudson (2B, or the O-Dog, as Vinny will remind you about 28 times during a broadcast)
Conor Jackson (IB)
Eric Byrnes (LF)
Chris Snyder (C)
Mark Reynolds (3B)
Stephen Drew (SS)
Justin Upton (RF)

For the Diamondbacks to get back to where they were last year, they need a better showing from Drew at the plate.  Last year, his first full season in the bigs, he hit only .238 with a .313 OBP.  Arizona expects much more, and he's certainly talented enough to come through. As is Jackson, who had a respectable average (.284), but didn't show a lot of pop (12 HR, 60 RBI in  415 ABs).  The Diamonbacks will be banking on more.  Snyder is a decent offensive catcher, and Hudson was very good for them near the top of the order.  In the outfield, Young had one of the more unusual stat lines you'll ever see, and it's not one Arizona wants repeated: 32 homers with only 68 RBI.  That's a shocking lack of run production from so many homers.  Granted, he hit at the top of the order, but Young also hit only .207 with runners on base, .186 with RISP, and .129 with men on and two outs. 

That's not very good. 

Young also struck out a ton (141 Ks in 569 ABs) and hit only .235 overall.  But he's extremely talented, and even a modest boost in his production will help the Diamondbacks in a big way.   Next to him in left, Eric Byrnes had a career year, setting personal bests for at bats, hits, runs, RBI, and stolen bases.  When he's healthy enough to play everyday, Byrnes generally produces 20+ homers and 70-80 RBI, but it's reasonable to expect a drop off, if slight, in his production for 2008.   Unfortunately, they can't really afford to give  away much.  Upton is extremely young, not even 20, and while he's got all the skill in the world, anything he provides should be considered a bonus. 

No question Arizona needs to improve at the plate to defend their division title, and no question the potential is there to make it happen.  Fortunately, they don't have to be the '27 Yankees to make things happen because the starting staff is so good.

PROJECTED ROTATION:

Brandon Webb (R)
Haren (R)
Randy Johnson (L)
Doug Davis (L)
Micah Owings (R)

Haren and Webb give the Diamondbacks a top-of-the-rotation duo that rivals any in baseball, and gives them an immense advantage over the competition. They're unlikely to suffer through any long losing streaks with two stoppers to snuff them out.  Behind them, if Johnson can stay healthy, while he's not the dominant pitcher of a decade ago, as a middle of the staff guy the Big Unit could still be productive.  Davis and Owings are both solid at the back end, and Owings in particular has the advantage of being able to undo mistakes with his bat, swatting four homers in 60 ABs while hitting .333.  Maybe he should play in the field, too?

In the bullpen, the Diamondbacks will miss Valverde, traded away to Houston over the winter.  Brandon Lyon inherits the closer role, one he's had before but in which he hasn't exactly thrived (one of the reasons Valverde had the job to begin with).  But manager Bob Melvin has some other options, from Tony Pena Jr. (3.27 ERA, .207 opponents BA) to Chad Qualls (3.05 ERA) who came over in the Valverde deal. 

Is it a great pen?  No.  Does it need to be?  Not assuming the starters stay healthy.  But it's important to remember that any slippage among the pitchers could be very painful to Arizona's bottom line.

FINAL VERDICT:  Like a lot of the teams in the NL West, it's hard to picture how things will turn out for Arizona.  If the young position players mature and provide more support, they could easily hit last year's 90 win mark.  If they don't, success is far more unlikely, since the Diamondbacks were very fortunate to win as much as they did in '07.  It's hard not to love their starting staff, but the pen behind them isn't rock solid like the ones in San Diego, or even LA.

In the end, I think they're due for a slight fall, though Arizona will absolutely be in the mix for a title.

PROJECTED RECORD: 87-75


BK