Opening Day means Fearless Prediction Time: A modified Question of the Day
Opening Day! Finally, a chance to start talking about games that matter instead of hoping to draw lessons from ones (or at least the final scores of ones) that don't. And ultimately, it all comes down to one big question: After a fairly productive offseason in which they added Hiroki Kuroda and Andruw Jones, made space for their young, talented players, and found some dude from New York to manage the team, will the Dodgers have enough to win the NL West?
I spent last week previewing the division, and I'll be honest, even after breaking down each team, I still don't feel like I have a good handle on where each team will finish, aside from the Giants in last. I gave Arizona 87 wins, San Diego 85, and the Rockies 89... and while I like the basic order, feel like I might have undershot each by a win or two. Such is life in a division with four good but flawed teams. When it's all said and done, I think the Blue have more than enough to compete for a division title.
The ingredients are there: A lineup that should be more productive than last year's version, and if Andruw Jones can bounce back will be superior to the ones the Diamondbacks and Padres will trot out each day (Colorado remains in another area code offensively). A pitching staff strong top to bottom, with solid starters and a quality pen, and potential help later in the season if Jason Schmidt can return from injury.
We've spent all winter and spring dissecting L.A.'s issues. Health will be a huge factor, as it always is. I think they're likely the second best team in the division behind Colorado, who I think can find the average enough pitching they need to pile up wins. 88 wins, a game behind the Rockies, a game ahead of the Diamondbacks. Obviously, that's a pretty tight race, so even the little things could affect the forecast.
What it should do, though, is add some zing to otherwise ho-hum early season matchups.
So here's the QOTD, the Question of the Year, really, and it's a simple one: What will the Dodgers' record be in 2008, and where will they finish?
BK
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I just don't see it with Colorado. They are certainly a good team, but not a VERY good team. Tulowitski and Holiday are bone fide superstars, but Helton is on the downside of his career and Atkins is adequate. The have a rookie at second base and second tier pitching. The Padres have a good one-two punch with Peavy and Young, but not much left after that and they have gotten much weaker on offense with Adrian Gonzales being the only big threat. The real threat in the Division is Arizona because of their strong pitching.
Dodgers finish first at 92 wins four ahead of Arizona. Colorado finishes at 84 wins with both the Giants and Padres under .500.
Posted by: dalegribel | March 31, 2008 at 09:40 AM
My guess is 95 wins and a division win with 3 IF's. Deduct 3 losses for every "if" that doesn't happen.
1. If Jones returns to form and hits around 40 HRs;
2. If Saito gives us another great year.
3. If the starting pitching proves to be as good as advertised.
Bonus wins: Add 3 wins if JP gets traded and we avoid a clubhouse rift.
Posted by: Jack | March 31, 2008 at 10:09 AM
Thanks to Joe's decision to play ET in left field from the start, I say the Dodgers finish 93-69 and in first place.
Posted by: DodgerBlueBalls | March 31, 2008 at 10:17 AM
100 wins, and in a surprise... 1 win ahead of the overachieving 2nd place Gnats.
Posted by: benzo jones | March 31, 2008 at 10:24 AM
88 wins with a healthy Schmidt and will end up third behind Arizona and Padres.
Posted by: ezmoney | March 31, 2008 at 10:42 AM
Here's a better question: in a division that will clearly be a 4-team race so tight that nothing is clear now, is there any chance that the wild-card will come out of the west? Or does the close competition hurt the 2nd place finisher, costing a chance at the post-season?
But I don't want to disappoint BK and not make a prediction, so here it is: 90 wins, but the division decided on the last weekend of the season.
Posted by: Blueblood in VA | March 31, 2008 at 10:59 AM
Was anyone else concerned about Ned's reaction to the Pierre situation? Based upon what I read, it sounds as if his ego is on the line. Previously, I had felt like he was willing to admit a mistake. The Lugo trade was a good example where he let him go rather trying to re-sign him. I hope he does not let his ego get in the way with this situation. I honestly believe the Dodgers and JP would be better served to find a team that needs a lead off hitter and full time outfielder. JP does not offer a lot coming off of the bench especially at his salary. The Dodgers have two servicable reserve outfielders in Repko and Young.
As far as the season goes, too many question marks for me to have a guess.
1. Health issues: Nomar, LaRoche, Kent, Saito, Schmidt (I wonder if he will ever pitch effectively again. Does anyone know if the Dodgers bought insurance on him? If not, this may be one of the worst deals of all time.)
2. Kuroda: How will he hold up over an entire season.
3. What does A Jones have left?
(side note: Bombko just gave up a HR shot to tie the game, hope they don't go into extra innings and delay the viewing of the Dodgers.)
All of that said, with a little luck, the Dodgers should be competing to win the division.
Posted by: Lex | March 31, 2008 at 12:43 PM
ROTFLMAO:
KC gets a taste of Tomko with the tying HR. LOL
You would have thought they had learned their lesson with Odalis Perez.
Posted by: wausroamer | March 31, 2008 at 12:46 PM
I think they can win 90 games although the bullpen is a concern for me. The Dodgers might have to trade for a pitcher 'cause I don't see Jason Schmidt pitching at all this season.
Posted by: dcerros | March 31, 2008 at 12:57 PM
Cool... I guess all that psyching out of Kent I've been doing all winter worked...1st at bat 2 run homer!
Posted by: benzo jones | March 31, 2008 at 01:51 PM
97 wins 1st place
Posted by: K T USN (Ret) | March 31, 2008 at 01:58 PM
Bring on da funk! Bring on De Witt!
Posted by: benzo jones | March 31, 2008 at 02:09 PM
Does anyone think that if Grady was still managing that he'd have let Pierre's streak go by the wayside today? It was as if he wanted to make a point on day one and get the streak over with so that it would no longer factor in. Torre is making decisions for the betterment of the team and not egos--I love it. That portends big things for this year--90+wins and post-season.
Posted by: dodgerskip | March 31, 2008 at 05:06 PM