Question of the Day: Clayton or no?

Like I mentioned, there solid arguments to pull the trigger, and other reasons to be more conservative.  Within Plaschke's column, one of the big worries is addressed, Ned Colletti worries aloud about how Kershaw might hold up for the rest of the season if he's brought up now, to which BP has a very reasonable answer:

"The thing I'm trying to get past is, what if we get into late September and the kid is out of bullets?" said Colletti. "How are we going to shut him down?"

If the Dodgers aren't careful, there may not be a late September.

Admittedly, when the choice is between fast-tracking a pitcher, especially one as young as Kershaw, to the Bigs, I generally default to waiting... but the Blue could certainly use some help, and Kershaw, who lit up Spring Training and currently sports a 1.83 ERA with 23 strikeouts in 19+ inning at AA Jacksonville, could qualify. 

Here's how I break it down:

PRO: The Dodgers currently have a hole in the fifth starter spot, and Kershaw, even in limited innings, could provide a major boost, especially until Chad Billingsley turns things around.  If he's pitching well, the chances of the Blue in his slot go up. 

CON: Kershaw is yet to pitch 45 innings at the AA level.  The learning curve, even for someone as talented as him, is steep, and jumping to the Majors doesn't exactly take any of the burden away.   Beyond the worries about overstressing his arm, it's fair to ask how consistent he'll be at this level while still learning to pit

PRO: If they think they might promote him at some point anyway, why wait?  As Plaschke points out, there's really no point in saving his arm for September if the Dodgers are too far out.

CON: The intensity of throwing to Major League hitters is different than the minors.  Every pitch has to be tighter, with better location.  Even if the Dodgers are incredibly careful about pitch counts and innings limits, similar to what the Yankees with last season's "Joba Rules" designed to minimize the strain on prized prospect Joba Chamberlain, there's still a risk.

PRO: Did I mention the Blue could use a boost?

CON: As Colletti mentions, if they start the clock on him now, it's reasonable to ask what he'll be able to contribute down the stretch.  It's still only April 25th, and the Dodgers are still yet to get hot.  Hell, they're yet to get lukewarm.  This assumes, of course, they're capable of it.  And besides, unless Kershaw can bring home runners in scoring position, his presence doesn't solve their fundamental problem.

PRO: Once the initial hoopla of his arrival dies down, there won't be much pressure on Kershaw, especially if he's throwing out of the pen.  He won't be expected to carry the team or be some sort of savior. 

CON: Because he'd have to be held to a very tight pitch count, if Kershaw were to start it's unlikely he'll help alleviate any pressure on the pen.  He might actually create more, since you know on his day, the starter isn't likely to go more than five, maybe six innings.  Of course, the same can be said now for Hong-Chi Kuo and Esteban Loaiza...

VERDICT: If the Dodgers believe that Kershaw can be effective at the Major League level, either as a starter or a reliever, there's really no point in wasting him in Jacksonville or Vegas.  The Dodgers would have to show incredible discipline in his use, something that (as Plaschke mentions) Joe Torre was able to do in New York with Chamberlain.  If Kershaw helps pitch them to September but then has to be shut down to preserve his arm, so be it.  This is a kid who could anchor the rotation for the next decade.  You don't screw with him now. 

If the Blue could do that, I don't see the harm.  I'm sure they were hoping a better start would delay this decision, but it isn't happening.  They can't wait too long.

BK