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34 games in, and I have some questions

Questionmarks It's been a topsy turvy, whirlwind of an up and down, box of chocolates thrill ride for the Blue over the first 21% of the '08 season.  Lots of good, lots of bad, lots of issues still floating over the squad.  Thankfully, as we always do when 21% of the season is in the books, we can ask some questions and try to address them.  Questions of the Day, if you will. Feel free to answer along! 

Q: What to do with Blake DeWitt?

This is a toughie, one that AK and I discussed at length in yesterday's Purple, Gold, and Blue podcast.  Certainly he's been terrifyingly good over the last week or so, has shown great poise and patience, and a couple muffs notwithstanding, solid skills at third.  But if he was to Wally Pipp both Nomar Garciaparra and Andy LaRoche, I have a feeling that over the long haul, he'd cool off considerably.  I don't mean this to diminish what the future mayor of Sikeston has accomplished, but in some ways he's been the beneficiary of low expectations in the same way that Andy LaRoche was punished by high ones when he struggled last year.  Nobody expected anything from DeWitt, so that he's been legitimately good makes it seem even better.  I'm still of the mind that a) over a full season his production will taper (wait, I already said that- damn!), b) it's important to get LaRoche back and playing, and finally give him a chance to establish himself, and c) back to DeWitt, it's better to send a kid down with a fully positive experience rather than waiting for him to stall, then shipping him out. 

Q: What to do with Andruw Jones?

Putting the very funny take on the situation from Sons of Steve Garvey aside for a moment, I have to agree with Joe Torre on this one.  Horrible as Jones has been- and man alive, that's pretty horrible- the only way he's going to get better is by playing.  I'm not saying he can't have the day off here and there to clear the ol' noggin and get some rest (not that what he's been doing seems all that physically demanding), but more often than not he needs to be in the lineup and try to work his way out of the abyss if the Blue are to get anything from him this year.  Will the time come when the Dodgers have a decision to make about his playing time?  Yes.  But it's not May 8.  In the meantime, try to avert your eyes.  Fortunately, the recent win-a-thon the Dodgers have been on gives them a little bit more wiggle room to try and get Jones going. 

Q: What do to with Clayton Kershaw?

Yes, I realize I just addressed this one less than two weeks ago, and came down on the side of very, very carefully bringing him up, at least in the not-so-distant future.  Well, two weeks ago, the Dodgers sucked and looked like they might slide off the edge of contention in a hurry, even given the season's relative youth.  Now, they're in much better shape, and, especially given how little they need a fifth starter this month, can resist the urge to bring him up for a little while longer.  He'll likely end up in LA soon enough, and probably should.  No question he'll be able to help the pitching staff.  But I don't blame them for wanting to put off his Major League debut as long as possible. (Note: With Esteban Loaiza's trip to the DL, there is some speculation that it could happen as early as next Saturday's game in Anaheim...)

Q: Seriously, is there a rule that says a Dodgers starter can't pitch into the seventh?  Or even (gasp!) the eighth?

In six starts, Chad Billingsley has seen the seventh once.  Hiroki Kuroda, twice in seven starts.   Brad Penny's longest outing is seven innings.  In six of Derek Lowe's seven starts, he hasn't gone past the sixth.  Toss in the hole in the five slot, and the Dodgers are getting an average of 5.1 innings per start.  That ain't good.  Maybe your impression is different, but I don't feel like Torre has had a particularly quick hook, either.  Fortunately for LA, they've been the beneficiaries of solid long relief work from guys like Hong-Chih Kuo and Chan Ho Park, and even Loaiza has kicked in with a couple good ones.  That's saved the set up guys for now, but down the road, the Dodgers will have to get more mileage out of the starters.  Of course, they had this problem last year, too, so we'll have to wait and see if it can be fixed with the current personnel.

Q: The outfield?

I still want to see Ethier play every day, more or less.  Pierre has performed well of late and when his OBP hovers around its current .380 mark, he's a productive player.  But over the long haul, I doubt it stays there, although there is a chance he'll reach base more this season because he's showing more patience, having already drawn eight walks in 26 games (five in the top two slots in the order), compared to 33 in 162 last year.  Still, on a day in, day out basis, I'd rather see Ethier.

Am I forgetting anything?  Probably.  Let me know, and we'll kick 'em around.

BK  

Comments

BK - Spot on.

Except I think that the current pitching "climate" only expects your starter to go 6... our guys are only 2 outs away from that goal. That's not too bad. I think we can all that LaRussa for that....

Is there any truth to the rumor that AJ signed an endorsement contract with Mickey D's to be the new Hamburgler?

The performance by the 1-2-3 starting pitching staff in the last few games have been kind of alarming. Lowe, Kuroda, and Penny have been getting rock and the inability to pitch past the 7th inning which puts more pressure on the bullpen is not good. Penny does not have the stamina or ability to pitch deep into games, it seems age is catching up to Lowe, and Kuroda is inexperience. I'm sure they'll bounce back, Lowe and Penny are veterans who been through it all but I just don't see them pitching into the 8th or 9th.

I also agree with Torre in that he has to play Jones everyday in order for him to get going. As bad as he has been why not place him in the 3rd spot in the line-up for a few games behind Kemp or Kent? That way at least he'll have some kind of protection. Just a suggestion.

I don't think Dewitt should be sent down just for the sake of him having a positive experience. What about if he doesn't stall (which will likely happen since all rookies hit a wall)? I think you leave Dewitt at 3rd until he starts struggling and then call-up LaRoche. Who cares if he has a positive experience or not that's why you have coaches to mentor these players. Sending Dewitt down right now specially when he's playing pretty good regardless of high expectations or not will be a mistake. Who knows he might win rookie of the year.

I think we're at the point where Jones has to start sitting. Ethier has been playing great and, for a young player never being a full-timer, you don't want to bench him now. When Slappy McGroundOut was hitting .150 Torre kept saying he still had to play frequently to stay fresh. So why is Ethier not playing for the past several games? Eithier and Kemp need to be the everyday guys with Jones and Pierre platooning. Once Jones starts to improve (Yeah, right!) then his playing time can increase. Torre says the Blue need Jones. Baloney. There the hottest team in the majors right now.

I wish these were the only questions we had this far, but in regard to the Torre havin a quick hook or not I think we saw his true colors, leavin Penny to hang on wed. to give up 10 runs. Granted our bullpen has been workin hard and needed some rest but how about clotting your bleeding opening-day and assumed ace's and retaining what little confidence he has left? And I know that baseball decisions arent made this way and you are probably correct the he will cool off, but right now I am in love with Blake DeWitt and the position that when Nomars ready he gets right back at it is irresponsible. For Laroche maybe, but for Nomar, who showed his age last season and is made of porcelin, DeWitt should have that job until he loses it for himself.

I saw an awesome bumper sticker on the 101 today that would be just perfect for AJ.

It said: "I ate my other car"

BK,
My answer to most of your questions is the same. If I were the manager, and I had the power to play whomever I choose, I would have a meeting with the team and say--'My goal is to put the best team out to play as much as possible. Everyone is expected tp contribute, but the players who are doing the best will play the most (with time to rest of course). So playing time will be determined by performance, not salary!!! Maybe this is a naive attitude, butI still like it. So let Dewitt play while he's hot. Play .300 Ethier, not .160 Jones. My example of how this is working is the play of Pierre. He was designated the forth outfielder. He stepped up his play, improved on some weaknesses, now he is playing every day. As for Jones, my method would force him to come up with something or else he sits. Your answer (and Torre's) lets him be mediocore or worse and still play. Also it hurts Ethier, because he has to wonder why .300 isn't good enough. So he gets his occasional start and presses to much, rather than being a relaxed everyday player. The 1988 Dodgers shuffled the players in and out and everyone contributed..
David

BK
I still don't know where you keep getting the idea that LaRoche deserves some more opportunities. DeWitt has risen to the task, so far. Why take him out? Why is Andy the chosen one? If Blake does slump the job should go back to Nomar. How many chances to you want LaRoche to get? You said "It is important to get LaRoche, back and playing, and finally give him a chance to establish himself". WHY? He has never done anything positive in the Major Leagues. I guess you just want to continue to have that position fail. Sending DeWitt down makes no sense. Especially now! Andy LaRoche never accomplished low expectations, let alone high ones. Also, he cannot stay healty any more than Nomar can. You quote some good stats and reasons for the pitching and outfield, but you really missed this one.

Pitching climate or not, 5.1 innings per start is definitely not going to cut it over the course of an entire season. Bullpens falter in August and September if they have been overused early in the season. The Dodgers are going to need a lot more mileage out of Penny and Billingsley.

Package-

I don't consider LaRoche a savior, but he's certainly a well regarded prospect with talent. As for "never" having done anything at the Major League level, he's got a grand total of 96 at bats under his belt. Hardly a large enough sample size to decide that he'll never be a productive player. I have worries about the length of his swing (and you're correct, the health thing is a serious question), but LaRoche has been an extremely productive hitter though his minor league career, and I think it would be in the best interests of the Dodgers to give him a chance to establish himself as a Major Leaguer.

Obviously if DeWitt continues a .400+ run like he's been on this month, you leave him in the lineup. But I suspect he'll slow down, and in the long run, he'll slow down a lot. We're talking about a guy who doens't have 300 ABs at AA. To assume that he'll make the leap to productivity over a 162 ML game season doesn't seem right to me.

There wasn't really anything wrong with the plan they had coming into the year, and while DeWitt has been surprisingly solid, he hasn't been so overwhelmingly good that it's impossible to imagine taking him out of the lineup. At least not for me. I realize this sounds paradoxical while DeWitt is playing well in the Major Leagues, but LaRoche is the more Major League ready of the two in the big picture.

BK

Agree with Package completely -- keep DeWitt. Nomar can put on a coat and go sit next to Steve Lyons and the "Captain" in center field and La Roche can go somewhere else. He's not done anything to warrant bumping DeWitt, who has outplayed and outhit LaRoche since he came up. And will somebody explain to me why Young can't play somewhere in the infield over Hu? Hu is okay, but I have to believe with more AB's Young is the better hitter. He's never quite gotten over coming up last year, going 6-8 and embarrassing the hell out of Nomar and crew, and being immediately banished by Forrest back down to the minors for his gross insubordination. If anyone needs more at bats its Young.

BK,

I'm sure LaRoche is more major league ready than Dewitt, and is probably more deserving to be in the big's than Dewitt, but I just don't see how you can send him down when the guy is playing well. Is he going to slow down? Probably, but right now everything is just assumption. I think everybody is trying to analyzed this too much when really it could be simple. If is not broken why fix it! Just let the dude play until he starts strugglin if that. I feel bad for LaRoche I know this last injury wasn't his fault but this is just the way the game is played.

DeWitt, the beneficiary of low expectations? I agree to a very, very limited extent. He's second on the team by win shares.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ten-things-i-didnt-know-last-week47/

Second! That's huge. Furthermore, as LaRoche's *further* injury last night emphasized, health is a skill and LaRoche doesn't have it. You guys may be right, this may be a streak, but I'm increasingly doubtful that's the case.

Further -- regarding the comment by package that "He [LaRoche] has never done anything positive in the Major Leagues." Wow, I guess he would prefer the old Kevin Malone approach, back when Ed Creech was running the scouting department and the Dodgers drafted and developed exactly bupkus in their own system. That is, let's trade Loney for Scott Hatteburg (sp?), Matt Kemp for Jason Bay, and Chad Billingsley for, oh, I don't know, Mark Redmond.

BK
DeWitt has had a grand total of 85 AB but he is hitting .306 with 18 RBIs and 2 HR, compared to 93AB, .226 avg. 1 HR, and just 10RBIs for LaRoche. He has played in 29 games as opposed to 35 for LaRoche. It would take a pretty large slump by DeWitt to acheive the poor stats that LaRoche has now. Just to assume that LaRoche is more Major League ready is very subjective, when the reality of it shown by stats is real. Perhaps LaRoche needs to stay in the minors to acheive better consistancy or until injury or slumping below .226, before being called up. Whats real is more important than potential.

Package

My thoughts on the Q's posed by my brother,

DEWITT
If you listened to the PG&B podcast, I'm not really concerned about any diminishing returns if DeWitt "Wally Pipped" LaRoche. Frankly, there's no real reason to think LaRoche will do any better playing everyday. I'm not saying ALR can't succeed or won't. I'm just saying, it could be the same result playing either of them. My main thought is whether they should bank a bit on DeWitt and look to move LaRoche while he still has some "upside" intrigue. Even taking into account the small sample size of DeWitt's career, he's done considerably better than ALR during his not much bigger one. Plus, for a young guy, ALR gets hurts a fair amount. I'm just not convinced he's a sure thing. Not that DeWitt is, but I think ALR would be easier to move (once healthy, of course).

As for DeWitt vs. Nomar, I'd be willing to take my chances with keeping DeWitt in the lineup. If he starts to struggle, take him out. But the idea of pulling DeWitt for Nomar who wasn't playing as well this year, had a bad 2007, and is likely to get hurt again strikes me as odd. For all the drop off one could reasonably suspect is coming with DeWitt, I'm wondering if it'll really be much worse than Nomar's production, all in all.


JONES

BK and I also differ a bit on how long to ride this out. Not even because Jones is killing the team (ain't like they're hurting for wins), but because I'm starting to feel like "getting him going" isn't a sound philosophy, as this may very well be who the guy is now. It would be one thing if he were coming off a good season and struggling. But he's actually coming off a career worst season that's looking like it'll end up his second worst. I can understand why the front office would gamble on Jones' track record. But they may have just gotten it wrong. Especially when you factor in any effects of his conditioning.

And in the meantime, they're not only sitting Ethier (and to some degree, Kemp), who's playing through the roof, but his development as a legit-everyday-but-still-learning player gets hindered. I'm not saying bench Jones tomorrow. But I would give him a shorter leash than BK. At the very least, I'd platoon him more often and decrease Ethier and Kemp's off days. It ain't like the extra at bats are helping Jones much.

KERSHAW

I'd hold off bringing him up until they really need to, but once that day comes, I'd also pull the trigger without hesitation and just keep close tabs. But until that Defcon 1 day arrives, I'd avoid doing it, despite how geeked the fans would be.

The Starters Lack of Collective Endurance

The team is worried. They should be. Not much more to say, really.

The Outfield

I basically answered this in the Jones question. I'd play Ethier as often as possible, but not necessarily at the expense of Pierre. It would be more at Jones', or at least somewhat more.

AK

Maybe they should ask LaRoche to play 50 games without getting hurt and then call him up.

I can pratically goo ar an tee that aint gonna happen. The guy gets more band aids than my one year old.

I don't know if you nessesarly sit Jones right now, especially while we are winning games and can afford to try to get him going. But when the wins quit coming it's time to put the best team on the field.

My problem is Torre putting all his eggs in the Jones basket. Why can't this team do something special without Andruw? Who's to say someone else can't step up?

DeWitt needs to play. What's the worst thing that could happen? He continues to produce and hits .290, 18 HRs, and 80 RBIs?

Of course Either did about that last year and look where he is...

AK
Your take on Jones is "spot on".
Short leash as in Billy Barty short...

let me speak on this ...

DEWITT

i would still like to see laroche given an opportyunity once he gets his timimng back in the minors ... cuz last year he was a man-child in AAA. i would like to see that type of power at 3rd base. but you gotta bring him up when dewitt cools down or else thats just more pressure on laroche cuz he's gotta replace those numbers.

that being said, this situation with dewitt kinda reminds me of when torre gave some unknown ss rookie a chance his first year managing the yankees.

JONES

speaking of the minors, the dodgers need to send jones down. if he gets picked up on wavers then even better. thats one bad colletti signing we won't have to worry about. cuz having him find his groove in the majors is doing more harm than good ... and what is he never improves?

KERSHAW

we don't need to bring him up yet. park & kuo are good enough replacements. i still personally feel the rotation would be filthy good with kuo in there. torre gave up too soon on the guy.

DeWitt had his best minor league season last year, and followed it up with a strong performance in the Arizona Fall League (AFL). He's a former supplemental first round pick (2004), and was rated the 5th best prospect in the Dodgers system. It is certainly true that his emergence this spring was the result of a fortuitous alignment of the stars, but it was probably also a continuation of the progress he began to exhibit last season and during his stint in the AFL. What impresses me most about DeWitt is his control and coolness under fire. He never looks overmatched when hitting, and doesn't allow a bad play in the field to linger in his mind. In all likelihood he will hit a bump or two in the road. When that happens, it will be interesting to see if he's able to make the appropriate adjustments. Only time will tell if he can. In the meantime, until he proves otherwise, DeWitt should remain on the team and in the lineup. In 2000, Rafael Furcal, nearly the same age as DeWitt is now, made the jump from A-ball the previous year, to a .295 year with the Braves. Who's to say DeWitt can't do the same? Also, from what I've observed, I doubt if DeWitt needs anymore positve experiences in the minors. If he stalls with the Dodgers, I believe he has the character and drive to bounce back, providing he has the requisite physical skills.

As for LaRoche, I believe he has the skills to succeed. He didn't hit a ton when he was called up last year, but, then again, his sample size was not only small, but his playing time was a lot more fractured that what's been afforded to DeWitt. I disagree with BK's assessment that his swing is long. From my observations, it's short and quick, allowing him to let the ball travel deep into the hitting zone. He's also patient, which allows him to work the count. However, as long as DeWitt is performing well, it would be hard to place LaRoche in front of him.

There is a difference between LaRoche's injury this spring and Nomar's recent calf injury. I didn't consider Nomar's injury during the spring to be the result of his being injury prone. He got hit on the wrist with a baseball, and as will happen in such instances, he fractured his wrist. That could happen to anyone. Same for LaRoche. His thumb got hit by a baseball, and the impact tore a ligament. Also, could happen to anyone.

Nomar on the other hand has been on the disabled list EVERY YEAR since 2004. I don't remember all of this injuries, but it does appear that just about all of them were the result of muscle pulls. I forget what his problems were with the Red Sox, but with the Cubs it was a severe groin pull, and with the Dodgers it's been a couple of calf pulls, a twisted knee, and a severely pulled quadriceps during the 2006 post-season series with the Mets. The number of muscle pulls he's had is an indication of a body that breakes down easily. He can simply no longer be relied on to play everyday. Nomar should either be relegated to a utility role, or the Dodgers should seek to trade him to an American League team where he could DH (because he still appears to be able to hit, even if his power has diminished).

88,

"that being said, this situation with dewitt kinda reminds me of when torre gave some unknown ss rookie a chance his first year managing the yankees."

Reading that just gave me a real good feeling about BDW. Let's all hope he can come close...

BK,

I'm in favor of keeping DeWitt and letting him start to struggle before sending him down when he is hot. I think Torre said it too.. he plays the "hot" hand. Why mess with success?? The Dodgers are winning?! As I said last year, if it's working don't try to fix it. Grady did that too much. Stay with what is working and winning... and DeWitt is working.. and winning.

Also BK, you seem to imply that because DeWitt has only limited playing time in AA that he cannot or would not produce consistently... I think this reasoning is flawed. The guy is obviously talented physically enough to play professional baseball, so I think if he works hard and keeps his head straight and not listen to negative remarks like yours, he could and should succeed in major league baseball. Afterall, we're talking about a lucky squib hit a week that makes a .250 hitter a .300 hitter. I remember Steve Sax came up from AA and passed a solid AAA second baseman the Dodgers had in Jack Perconte and Sax had a very productive career. Blake has his head on straight and I hope all the pessimistic people don't cause him to lose confidence in himself.

BD - Nomars problem with the Red Sox started when he stopped using the clear.

Here's my take:
1) Dewitt sstays until he shows he can't make it through his first slump or drops below .250. laRoache can bide his time in AAA and show he can stay healthy.

2) Andrew fills in as the fourth outfielder to give the extra days rest. If he still can break out of his slump, put him through waivers and try to send him down to the minors to get better. If someone takes him so be it. They take his salary.

3) i would hold off on bringing Kershaw up until the month of June if possible that way he's fresh and won't be burnt out by the end of the season.

4) Not having to use the 5th starter for a while will help the average plus bringing Kershaw up when needed should also help. We have a good bullpen and our guys are hitting now so the starters can be left in a little longer and it shouldn't be a problem.

5) Already answered in question 2 with the stipulation that Young becomes the 4th outfielder once Jones is sent down.

Young should be our pinch hit specialist until the time when he is used as our 4th outfielder. Nomar should be used as our backup infielder and right handed pinch hitter off the bench. If Sweeney doesn't show some thing soon he also should be replaced.

It's now Dewitts job to lose, I would say and they maybe should trade LaRoach.

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