34 games in, and I have some questions
It's been a topsy turvy, whirlwind of an up and down, box of chocolates thrill ride for the Blue over the first 21% of the '08 season. Lots of good, lots of bad, lots of issues still floating over the squad. Thankfully, as we always do when 21% of the season is in the books, we can ask some questions and try to address them. Questions of the Day, if you will. Feel free to answer along!
Q: What to do with Blake DeWitt?
This is a toughie, one that AK and I discussed at length in yesterday's Purple, Gold, and Blue podcast. Certainly he's been terrifyingly good over the last week or so, has shown great poise and patience, and a couple muffs notwithstanding, solid skills at third. But if he was to Wally Pipp both Nomar Garciaparra and Andy LaRoche, I have a feeling that over the long haul, he'd cool off considerably. I don't mean this to diminish what the future mayor of Sikeston has accomplished, but in some ways he's been the beneficiary of low expectations in the same way that Andy LaRoche was punished by high ones when he struggled last year. Nobody expected anything from DeWitt, so that he's been legitimately good makes it seem even better. I'm still of the mind that a) over a full season his production will taper (wait, I already said that- damn!), b) it's important to get LaRoche back and playing, and finally give him a chance to establish himself, and c) back to DeWitt, it's better to send a kid down with a fully positive experience rather than waiting for him to stall, then shipping him out.
Q: What to do with Andruw Jones?
Putting the very funny take on the situation from Sons of Steve Garvey aside for a moment, I have to agree with Joe Torre on this one. Horrible as Jones has been- and man alive, that's pretty horrible- the only way he's going to get better is by playing. I'm not saying he can't have the day off here and there to clear the ol' noggin and get some rest (not that what he's been doing seems all that physically demanding), but more often than not he needs to be in the lineup and try to work his way out of the abyss if the Blue are to get anything from him this year. Will the time come when the Dodgers have a decision to make about his playing time? Yes. But it's not May 8. In the meantime, try to avert your eyes. Fortunately, the recent win-a-thon the Dodgers have been on gives them a little bit more wiggle room to try and get Jones going.
Q: What do to with Clayton Kershaw?
Yes, I realize I just addressed this one less than two weeks ago, and came down on the side of very, very carefully bringing him up, at least in the not-so-distant future. Well, two weeks ago, the Dodgers sucked and looked like they might slide off the edge of contention in a hurry, even given the season's relative youth. Now, they're in much better shape, and, especially given how little they need a fifth starter this month, can resist the urge to bring him up for a little while longer. He'll likely end up in LA soon enough, and probably should. No question he'll be able to help the pitching staff. But I don't blame them for wanting to put off his Major League debut as long as possible. (Note: With Esteban Loaiza's trip to the DL, there is some speculation that it could happen as early as next Saturday's game in Anaheim...)
Q: Seriously, is there a rule that says a Dodgers starter can't pitch into the seventh? Or even (gasp!) the eighth?
In six starts, Chad Billingsley has seen the seventh once. Hiroki Kuroda, twice in seven starts. Brad Penny's longest outing is seven innings. In six of Derek Lowe's seven starts, he hasn't gone past the sixth. Toss in the hole in the five slot, and the Dodgers are getting an average of 5.1 innings per start. That ain't good. Maybe your impression is different, but I don't feel like Torre has had a particularly quick hook, either. Fortunately for LA, they've been the beneficiaries of solid long relief work from guys like Hong-Chih Kuo and Chan Ho Park, and even Loaiza has kicked in with a couple good ones. That's saved the set up guys for now, but down the road, the Dodgers will have to get more mileage out of the starters. Of course, they had this problem last year, too, so we'll have to wait and see if it can be fixed with the current personnel.
Q: The outfield?
I still want to see Ethier play every day, more or less. Pierre has performed well of late and when his OBP hovers around its current .380 mark, he's a productive player. But over the long haul, I doubt it stays there, although there is a chance he'll reach base more this season because he's showing more patience, having already drawn eight walks in 26 games (five in the top two slots in the order), compared to 33 in 162 last year. Still, on a day in, day out basis, I'd rather see Ethier.
Am I forgetting anything? Probably. Let me know, and we'll kick 'em around.
BK
Subscribe to this Blog | What is RSS?
Rob McMillin
I don't recall advocating trading all the youngsters for nobodys or washed up players. Or a completely different program of running the team. I definitely feel that they should build thru the minor leagues. Based on their performance is what I look at as far as starting and staying on the Dodgers. I keep hearing that LaRoche has a small sample size, but 95 ABs represent approximately 25% of a season. THATS ENOUGH TO MAKE JUDGEMENT ON LaROCHE!!!
Posted by: Package | May 09, 2008 at 07:31 AM
I am all for bumping AJ to AAA and if somebody takes him off waivers good for them, we save face and 15 million this year and 18 next. I think we have won without him and i dont believe he will be the savior of this team this year. If he is not claimed, he may regain his form or desire to play after being dumped and actually contribute. Either way AJ needs a kick in the pants. Dewitt and all the kids are doing what we all have been predicting, contributing winning, and growing as a team. I don't think free agents are a part of that, especially AJ.
Posted by: poppinfresh | May 09, 2008 at 08:14 AM
BK RE:Jones.
The one thing that all Bloggers seem to agree on and differ from You, Joe and Ned is that Jones is a total disaster. Worse than Pierre was last year because he at least performed as expected. What we say now is What can we possibly expect from Jones? That he performs up to last years numbers? .227 average ? He'll never match 26 homers playing in LA. He came in 30 pounds over weight why reward that attitude. Even Cabrera lost 20 pounds before he reported to Detroit and we were all afraid he had a bad attitude. Don't stifle Ethiers good play. Reward him with the starting job and make Jones the sub.
David
Posted by: David S | May 09, 2008 at 08:17 AM
What disturbs me about Jones is his unwillingness to change anything about his swing. Think back, Dodger fans, to Adrian Beltre. After providing two solid half-years, he absorbed hitting coarch Tim Wallach's two-strike approach, and had the monster season (and then left to a team without Wallach and became average). But the point is Beltre swallowed his pride, shelved the ego, shoved his cliche into his platitude, and changed. Jones refuses to do this with Mike Easler, who, by all accounts, is a fine hitting coach.
Dump him.
Posted by: CW Shelley | May 09, 2008 at 08:57 AM
dcerros (and a lot of others)-
Sorry for the slow response. I promised my wife an internet free evening last night (haha). Anyway, like I said, if DeWitt continues on the run he's had over the last 10 days, I wouldn't move him anywhere. I'm not THAT stupid. Those who say he's a good kid are exactly right, and I'm certainly not rooting for him to fail. What I'm saying is that once the original duo is ready to play, if DeWitt slows down I wouldn't hesitate to make the change. Basically, pencil DeWitt in rather than saying he's won the job. He could be the exception to the general rule that says guys with his relative lack of experience can't thrive in the bigs right away.
I will say this- if it comes down to a question of DeWitt vs. Nomar (does another injury to LaRoche seem that far fetched?) I'd hate to see DeWitt lose all of his ABs in that scenario. Unless Nomar shocks the world and knocks the cover off the ball, first half '06 style, I don't see what the team gains from giving him extensive ABs over either LaRoche or DeWitt.
In summary, if DeWitt simply makes it impossible to take him out of the lineup, that's a great problem to have, and kudos to him. Short of that, though, I'd give him time to go down and season, and see if LaRoche can be the everyday player they want him to be.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | May 09, 2008 at 10:48 AM
Here are Dewitt's and LaRoche's numbers over a strikingly similar number of games played.
G AB HR RBI K AVG OBP SLG OPS
DeWitt 29 85 2 18 12 .306 .385 .471 .856
Laroche 35 93 1 10 24 .226 .365 .312 .677
If those numberrs had been compiled in the same season, you'd say DeWitt was the better choice. He leads LaRoche's totals from last year in every category. I say the job is his to lose. sorry, Andy. Next time, don't get injured. WHo knows, maybe DeWitt will get injured and you'll get your job back.
I don't know when it becomes time to sit Andruw Jones. June 1, July 1, All Star BReak? But I'm in favor of as soon as humanly possible.
Keep Kershaw in the minors as long as necessary.
Play Ethier. Vote for Andre. He makes the team go.
Posted by: SaMo | May 09, 2008 at 10:55 AM
Package-
It's really not a vast difference. If we had this conversation eight days ago, the numbers for DeWitt would have been a lot different. Again, I'm not saying he's not doing well, only that the sample size to say he's clearly established himself as a high quality big leaguer or that LaRoche is a failure (as you seem to think) is large enough. If he continues to hit like he is, he'll stay in the lineup I would think. I just don't think it's a good idea to declare him the third baseman at this point.
David S-
Make no mistake, I think Jones is a disaster for sure. He's been awful. Where we differ is in what to do about it. I think May 8th is too early to declare the signing done and try to send him to Vegas or plant him on the bench. Does that point arrive if he keeps hitting under .200? Sure. But it's way too early for that.
BK
Rob McMillan-
Hey! Good to see you. What I meant by DeWitt benefitting from low expectations isn't that he's not playing well (thanks for the link) but that since nobody expected anything from DeWitt, he's seemed even better than he's been. I think Jon at DT did a quick breakdown 10 days or so ago (before DeWitt's hot streak) that compared a lot of their stats, and noted that LaRoche was superior in many ways, despite his lackluster performance.
Again, my point isn't that DeWitt isn't playing well or that I think LaRoche is da bomb (I've expressed many concerns over the last 18 months, mostly because of his health), just that the sample size is too small to declare DeWitt "the guy" going forward. I have no problem with the Blue pulling their chips off the table and returning to the pre-season plan once the timing works out.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | May 09, 2008 at 11:11 AM
BK
8 days ago DeWitt was hitting .278 and had 15 RBIs. Way better than anything LaRoche has put up. 50 points better on the avg. is a ton. Its not that I don't think that LaRoche can be a big leaguer, he can, but not to the level and opportunity you folks want to give him, and I emphasize GIVE. You can't just say "He should, He should, he should, he should because you want him to. He has to perform when given an opportunity and so far he hasn't. Also, the Dodgers have one 3rd baseman who is performing well and another that they are paying a lot of money who should be able to play if the rookie fails. Why go back to old unsuccessful news?? I just have not seen anything or been provided any info from you or anyone else who thinks LaRoche should be the everyday 3rd baseman. Please give me the numbers that you are comparing DeWitt and LaRoche performances, and when. Thank You.
Posted by: Package | May 09, 2008 at 11:49 AM
don't send Jones to Vegas.. we have too many buffets
Posted by: benzo jones | May 09, 2008 at 12:05 PM
First off, let me say that I have been a long time Yankee fan, and growing up in Sikeston, Missouri, so close to the "god"-like atmosphere of the St. Louis Cardinals, that is not an easy thing. (By the way, yes, I am a DeWitt homer. Saw him play in high school and have followed his progression.) At any rate, because of Blake DeWitt being a Dodger, I have begun to move from the dark side to the Blue Side, as many in this community of about 17,000 have done. It's been exciting to see him play and almost even more exciting to see him make number 5 on ESPN's top 10 plays of the day. So I would like to offer a homer point of view, with a twist of reality.
Blake has played great since being moved up to the Major's. But its not surprising. This young man that L.A. has adopted from us, has a wonderful work ethic. I know his High School baseball coach and he will tell you the exact same thing. Blake began a slump last year, but then through different workouts and routines, he began the process of working himself back. That has continued into this spring and the first quarter of the baseball season.
However, as any physics professor will tell you, what goes up, must come down. Eventually, Blake will hit a wall or fall into a slump. It's going to happen. It will be painful to watch, but it will happen and it has too. A player is not just defined by their stats, they are also defined by the adversity of which they must partake. Will they come out better, the same or worse? How did they handle it? Did they work harder, the same or just not much? How Blake will handle the eventual slide that he is destined to take, will tell us a lot about him.
So then, the question lingers, what shall we do with this young rookie? But is this really the first question to ask?
I think the first question you ask is what is the status of Nomar. Even though I am, or soon to be was, a Yankee fan, I still liked Nomar. I think he has gotten some bad breaks (no pun intended) but is this the guy that is going to get the Dodgers where they need to be? Does Torrre seem him as "THE guy" at thirdbase when he is 100%, or at least 95% healthy? If the answer is yes, then send Blake down and be done with it. If it is no, then go to the next question.
Is LaRoche the next great 3rd baseman for the Dodgers? hhhmmmm, slightly tough to answer. Why? because we haven't seen him enough. Not enough innings played or enough AB's to make that determination. However, I keep hearing the LaRoche is the next great prospect for that position. If that is the case, then he should be next in line to prove himself worthy of the position. Everyone gets injured, and you can't penalize someone for an injury. Not Nomar, not LaRoche, no one. So, is he the next great 3rd baseman. If yes, then you bring in LaRoche and send Blake back down. If no, then leave the apples where they lie.
I love Joe Torre. From his managing day with the Cardinals, to the Yanks and now the Dodgers. He gets paid to make those tough decisions. Again, I am just glad its him and not me. Good luck to Blake and I think I speak for the City of Sikeston when I say.......
GO DODGERS!
Posted by: Dodger_N_YankeeClothes | May 09, 2008 at 12:16 PM
You earn a job in the majors and Blake DeWitt has done just that. It's not his fault the way it came to be. As someone mentioned above, what impresses me is the way he goes about his business; he seems to be the ultimate professional. Did anyone notice his reaction when the bench gave him "the silent treatment" after his first home run? He put the bat in the rack and was ready to move on -- no expectations that anything was owed to him.
I feel bad for LaRoche, but the job is DeWitt's until he gives them a reason to believe otherwise.
Posted by: dalegribel | May 09, 2008 at 01:19 PM
Keep DeWitt, bring-up Kershaw and sit Jones down until Juan cools down.
Posted by: steve | May 09, 2008 at 01:55 PM