Game(s) on

The good news is that all three Arizona starters have, in varying degrees, struggled of late. Haren has been particularly shaky, allowing four or more earned runs in four of his last six starts, good for a 5.63 August ERA.  It's worth noting that both of his quality efforts in that stretch came against division opponents on the road.  Webb, sitting on 19 wins, has been battered over his last two outings.  The Padres (seriously!) torched him for nine hits and six earned over 4.2 innings on August 26th, then the Dodgers inflicted even more damage last Sunday, piling up eight runs (six earned) before chasing Webb one out into the fourth.  The two bad starts have conspired to raise Webb's ERA by nearly half a run, from 2.74 to his current 3.19. 

Johnson was beat up by St. Louis in his last start, but up to that point had been pretty solid over the second half of the season. 

The series shapes up to be an interesting one, not only because of what's at stake, but also for the matchups.  Arizona has relied heavily on the extremely effective Haren/Webb combination this year, and it won't be any different this weekend.  That makes Friday and Saturday's games doubly important.  First, every game those guys pitch and don't win hurts Arizona, because things get shakier for them near the back end of the rotation.  When Webb and Haren don't pitch well, the D-Backs have trouble sustaining momentum.  Think of the lift LA received from beating those two last week.  To do it again could be huge. 

Of course, winning those games isn't a luxury for the Blue.  They'll need them to take some of the pressure off Sunday's starter Clayton Kershaw.  Not that the kid isn't capable, as he showed Tuesday against the Padres, but it's a lot to ask of such a young, inexperienced pitcher to step up in a must (if LA loses the first two) keep-the-season-off-life-support (if they split) win game.

Both teams set up the series about as well as they could.  Derek Lowe, facing Haren tonight, has allowed four runs in his last four starts combined, and has been particularly effective at both home this season (2.64 ERA) and in four starts against Arizona (2.78 ERA in 22+ IP).  Chad Billingsley, taking the hill Saturday afternoon against Webb, hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start since July 8 against Atlanta.  To find another, you'd have to reach back to his June 11 outing in San Diego.  He may not always look pretty in the process, but Billingsley has evolved into the staff's most dominanting and consistent arm. 

Kershaw, of course, is something of a wild card, and watching him face the 9,277 year old Johnson will make for good theatre.  Originally the team had Greg Maddux scheduled to pitch Sunday, but instead moved the righty to Monday in San Diego.  It might seem strange, given all of Maddux's big game experience, until you look at his splits vs. Arizona (12 IP, 13 ER) and pitching in PETCO (2.62 ERA in 86 IP).  With that in mind, giving the ball to Kershaw makes a lot more sense. 

By the way, I'm not forgetting the sticks (Eduardo Perez recommends the Blue get, like, lots and of hits), I just believe, like most of you, I would think, this is a series all about pitching.

We'll see.

BK