Teller of fortunes: Dodgers vs. Phillies
You wouldn't believe how many compliments I get on that hat.
My last two big ticket playoff predictions (Lakers in six, Cubs in five) haven’t exactly earned me first ballot consideration into the Prescient Sports Journalists Hall of Fame. Plus, I'm close to having my hat revoked. But the fun thing about sports is there’s always another series to call incorrectly, so with that in mind that I deliver some thoughts about the Dodgers vs. Philadelphia in the NLCS. The Phils, like the Blue, played well down the stretch and, like the Dodgers, rolled over their first round opponent with relative ease.
Against the Cubs, the Dodgers were the plucky underdog, seen by most (represented pictorially by these ESPN.com baseball writers) as some wings on the way to Chicago's World Series main course. Now, the prevailing opinion favors LA. I tend to agree, but I definitely think it'll be close. There are a lot of variables that will determine the outcome, and here, in no particular order are some of my favorite things to look for:
- The Treatment of Ryan Howard vs. the Treatment of Manny: If both guys are hot, neither manager would be wise to challenge them. But while Manny is pretty much bulletproof in the box- nobody gets to be one of the great hitters in baseball history with holes in his swing- Howard is vulnerable. He's a homer machine and drives in runs, but also strikes out like nobody's business. Howard is especially vulnerable against lefties, against whom his already prodigious strikeout numbers actually jump, making Hong-Chih Kuo and Joe Beimel especially important.
- Kuo in the Ninth: Assuming he can prove his health earlier in the series, Joe Torre would be wise to consider him in the ninth instead of Jonathan Broxton, should the Utley/Howard tandem come to bat. I mentioned the splits last night, and it's important to remember they apply in save situations, too.
- People Who Aren't Manny: The Dodgers thrived in round one because Manny was as advertised (.500 BA, .643 OBP, two big homers, and so on and so forth) and the guys around him were good enough. James Loney- six RBIs. Russell Martin was big. Raffy Furcal came through in Game 2. The Dodgers are going to need more of that. Not everyone in the supporting cast has to shine at the same time- that almost never happens- but if three or four guys up and down the lineup don't come to Manny's aid, it'll hurt. Interestingly enough, tonight's starter for Philly, Cole Hamels is actually tougher on righties than lefties, despite his leftiness. That's good news for Loney, Andre Ethier, and Blake DeWitt.
- Brett Myers: If Dodger fans have had worries about Hiroki Kuroda's consistency, Phillies Phaithful have the same questions about Brett Myers... except over the course of the year his problem was more with being even decent rather than all over the map. Myers has had a decent run over the last two months or so and was effective against the Brewers, but I can't believe there's a lot of trust there from fans. For that matter, fourth starter Joe Blanton is hardly a rock, either. Overall, the Dodgers enter the series with a big advantage in starting pitching, something that should show through if the series goes long. It's especially large if the Dodgers choose to...
- Start Clayton Kershaw in Game 4: It'll be Lowe or Kershaw, I would think, but just in case, I thought I'd put this out there. Joe Torre just can't put Greg Maddux on the mound against guys like Howard and Utley, and Philly's lefty-heavy lineup.
Prediction: I'm saying LA in seven, but with seven game series, there are two ways to look at it. One? The "It's super close, and one team has to win in seven... but I'm really unsure of which." The other? Being closer to picking the winning team in six. I'm closer to the latter. Obviously, anything can happen, but I believe the Dodgers' advantage in starting pitching is the key here. They are more likely to have their guys go deeper into games and stay away from mushier parts of the pen, more likely to avoid mistakes, more likely to avoid home runs (even accounting for the difference in parks, the Dodgers don't give up many long balls).
BK
AK's Two Cents
In addition to what my brother already said, a few thoughts...
- Cory Wade: Blue Notes regulars have probably figured out by now that I'm pretty high on what this oft-unsung hero brings to the table. But even taking into account that one of the team's more rock solid relievers would naturally play a role in a series' fate, Wade could become a key principle in dealing with Philly's dangerous Utley-Howard lefty tandem. Yes, Hong-Chih Kuo is the Blue's chief southpaw crusher, but his closest competition is the rookie righty. Wade is also the pitcher we know for sure is running sharp. Thus, should Kuo look flat upon return or Torre simply decide to stick with what got the boys this far, don't be surprised if he opts to send in Wade against the NL's 2008 home run king.
- Andre Ethier: He drew four walks over three games against Chicago, but he also struck out just as many times and hit a buck on the series. Ethier was a big part of the Dodgers taking their collective game to another level. They can still make the Series if AE continues to slump, but life would be a lot easier if he didn't.
- Hiroki Kuroda: The Japanese import has been lights out against Philly in two starts this season (1-0 with a scant 1.38 ERA). He's been more successful at home than on the road (which works out well for a dude tossing Game 3). He notched a fantastic playoff performance at the Ravine after five days of rest (he'll get even more downtime before his next start). Can any/all the established trends in his favor remain unfettered?
- Angel Berroa: Before the Dodgers clinched the NL, he bought a remote control helicopter. Before they swept Chicago, he bought a battery powered Ferrarri. I'm not saying the Dodgers can't win without Berroa picking out a new toy mode of transport. I just don't consider it a bad thing that our buddy Beto Duran (710 ESPN) recently saw him leafing through a catalog.
Prediction
Here's the thing. I predicted the Dodgers wouldn't do much of consequence before the trade deadline. I was wrong, and in the Dodgers' favor. I said in early September that they wouldn't make the playoffs. I was wrong, and in the Dodgers' favor. I said "Cubs in five." I was wrong, and in the Dodgers' favor. Thus, I'm just gonna do Blue loyalists a favor.
"Phillies in 7."
Yes, that's my official prediction. Yes, you're welcome.
AK

Who knew that Tommy Lasorda had his own blog?
http://tommy.mlblogs.com/archives/2005/07/i_hate_the_phil.html
Break out the Pinot Grigio and Slim-Fast and enjoy the ride!
Posted by: DodgerBlueBalls | October 09, 2008 at 01:03 PM
How much do you think Manny's car on Ebay will go for?
Posted by: frank | October 09, 2008 at 01:27 PM
I just think the loose, relaxed play that allows our guys not to press at the plate, to take pitches and work these not-quite-outstanding philly pitchers into high counts is the most crucial aspect of your play. Ethier, Loney, Martin, Kemp--these guys have to follow Manny's lead and just let the game come to them. Work the count. Get on base. Pounce on the meat-throws.
That will keep us in the game offensively, but of course like all playoff teams we will go as far as our pitching allows. Fortunately our first three guys are coming off of excellent playoff games last week, and there shouldn't be any jitters. First pitch strikes. Keep the ball down. Get the ground balls.
Lowe needs to be Lowe-y tonight. Just like a week ago. Lowe-y.
See y'all on the live blog.
Posted by: VA Blueblood | October 09, 2008 at 01:57 PM
BK,
Regarding Kuo in the 9th, that is kind of a scary thought. He would have to be a little rusty plus he's returning from injury and he would be doing it in a high pressure situation. I hope he prepares himself mentally.
Go Dodgers! Thinking BLUE always!
Posted by: Artful Dodger | October 09, 2008 at 02:05 PM
AK
I know exactly how you feel. I also pick the Phillies to win (wink, wink). No doubt about it, the Phillies got this series (wink, nudge)
Go..er, ah...Phillies!
Posted by: Andy B | October 09, 2008 at 02:10 PM
I'd like to see Kuo get some mop up work in the first game as the Dodgers jump out to an 11-3 lead after 7 innings.
David
Posted by: David s | October 09, 2008 at 02:26 PM
Artful-
No question, there's an element of breath holding involved, and like I said, I wouldn't make it his first appearance, but as the series progresses if he can show he's okay, it wouldn't surprise me at all. I don't consider myself a slave to numbers, but the splits, between Howard's inability to hit lefties well and Broxton's relative lack of success against them, are pretty profound.
It's an interesting question, though, I think.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | October 09, 2008 at 02:43 PM
I too think the series is going to be close. But, how can you say the Dodgers have a BIG advantage in pitching? They have a closer who has been perfect, Dodgers aren't even exactly sure who their closer is. Cole Hamels has been great, best pitcher in the NL in terms of innings, ERA and K's- after Johan. Jamie Moyer- 16-7 3.71 ERA, the guy just gets batters out, period. How about Ryan Madson? He's all of a sudden throwing 95MPH with ball movement; when before he was topping out at 91. Brett Myers has had an up and down year. But, since his stint in the minors he's been unbelievable except for 2 games. Yes, everyone is still a little nervous about him but he's pitching very well- just ask Milwaukee. The advantage the Dodger's pitching may have is that Utley and Howard are very streaky (don't even mention Burrell).
So, do the Dodgers have very good pitching? Yes. Do they have a BIG advantage? No. I'll close like the Phillies do- with Lights Out Lidge.
Posted by: Fightin' Phil | October 09, 2008 at 03:13 PM
AK
Love your prediction. If the Dodgers win, nobody will care what your prediction was and if the Phils win, you will be all knowing, all seeing.
Package
Posted by: Package | October 09, 2008 at 03:16 PM
Dodgers in 4.
Posted by: benzo jones | October 09, 2008 at 03:18 PM
BK,
Oops, you did say that Kuo would have to prove his health early in the series. I agree... Let's hope he can pitch like we know he can. A little flip of the bat if he gets a chance to hit wouldn't hurt either!
Posted by: Artful Dodger | October 09, 2008 at 03:34 PM
BK, I still didn't see the Dodgers big advantage in pitching. I'm gonna stay on that one until I see it. If you said slight or small advantage I might buy that. Don't get me wrong I expect homerism on a Dodgers blog, but there just isn't a big difference.
7 hits per team. Defense obviously was the difference in the game.
Great game though, I bit down on more than a few fingernails.
Posted by: Fightin' Phil | October 09, 2008 at 08:08 PM
Phil-
I still think the advantage in the starters is pretty substantial when comparing teams at this point of the season. Whether they use it remains to be seen. This is the only matchup where the Phillies had the advantage (in my humble estimation). If the Phils hadn't won behind Hamels, that would have been a big problem for them. Tomorrow, if the Dodgers don't win behind Billingsley, they lose the advantage they have. Maybe it's because I don't trust Myers and Blanton, but that's how I see it.
But yeah, it was a GREAT game. Great D, timely hitting, great pitching from both teams. Nice to have you on the blog! A well behaved Phillies fan. Go figure (haha).
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | October 09, 2008 at 10:13 PM