Dodgers ready to make their pitch to CC
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Saw this nugget today from Buster Olney at ESPN.com:
Heard this: The Dodgers are preparing to make their offer to CC Sabathia -- and logic tells you that it will be a very large offer because the gauntlet has been thrown down. The Brewers have a five-year, $100 million on the table and might be willing to take their offer beyond that. The Yankees threw out $140 million over six years and definitely have more to offer. So if the Dodgers jump into this thing, you'd have to assume that, at the very least, they'll be in the $110 million range -- and if it is at that level, there would be the built-in hope that CC would give the Dodgers a home-state discount. Anything less than $100 million probably would not be competitive.
He then asks/answers the big Manny vs. CC question on the minds of many fans:
If you were the Dodgers and you were prepared to offer $100 million-plus to some player, would you rather invest the money in:
(A) A 36-year-old historically great, high-impact hitter who is a poor outfielder and bears a reputation for quitting on his team. Or,
(B) A 28-year-old left-handed pitcher coming off a season in which he went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA -- a player who has a sterling reputation as a person and a teammate, and who demonstrated staggering competitive integrity in how he took the ball for the Brewers down the stretch.
The choice is not even worthy of debate. If the Dodgers have $100 million-plus to spend -- and there are some in the industry who doubt whether that's actually the case -- then Sabathia makes all the sense in the world for them.
I'm on the other side of this issue, in part because I can't quite figure out how the Dodgers can replicate the type of offense they had/needed near the end of last season without Manny, or something very close, and the potential replacements (Adam Dunn?) aren't nearly as dynamic (nor, it should be said, as flaky or old). With the pitching staff, however, I think there are ways for the Blue to put together a very competitive staff without bringing in Sabathia.
Don't get me wrong -- CC would be a great addition, and while precious memories of Darren Dreifort and (to a lesser extent) Kevin Brown mean many Dodger fans can't say the words "long-term deal" in the same sentence as "pitcher" without triggering a gag reflex, Sabathia is as good a risk as any. While there are worries, especially about weight and workload, he doesn't have the declining numbers that scream "Bad Idea!" like Barry Zito did before signing with San Francisco.
Either way, for the Dodgers to build a highly competitive team for the '09 season won't be easy. I've said it before, I'll say it again: This is not the winter I'd want to be Ned Colletti. And not simply because I don't wear snakeskin boots.
BK
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I guess you can't go wrong with either acquisition. An 0 fer is not acceptable.
Posted by: Jesse from SC | November 19, 2008 at 10:41 AM
OK first of all, does Ned really wear snakeskin boots?
Now... CC at the top of the rotation vs. Manny in the middle of the lineup obviously not as easy to define as a black & white issue. A lot of grey on this one.
I really find myself going back and forth on this one. There's very strong positives and negatives on both sides.
You are right BK the offense will just not be the same without Manny in the middle. (Unlike Kent I think we all recognize just how much he effected everyone around him.) But the rotation could really use a dependable "ace" at the top as well. When we have a strong, confident starter kick off the rotation I feel like it trickles down through the rest of the rotation as well.
For me it comes down to the money spent. As scary as a long term deal to a pitcher can be, I think that CC is a decent bet. He's a fierce competitor, good teammate, & can be lights out on any given day.
As good as Manny is (&I've been a Manny fan for a long time) I do worry about the end of the contract. What's that defense gonna look like in 3 years? How committed is he gonna be if we are having a down year. But you look around to find an alternative to fortify the offense and it's slim pickins.
I'd be interested to hear everyone's alternate scenarios on either side. If we sign Manny, what do you do with the rotation? If you sign CC what do you do with the offense?
& the scariest thing for me again is that neither of these guys are even answers for the infield! Seems every day I check rumors another team is gunning for Furcal. (Everyone except for us??!!!) I understand that homeboy has a bad back & 4 years seems like a bit much but... it's Rafi!! What better options are out there?
I don't know - I echo your statement BK - glad I'm not in those boots.
Posted by: jukuren | November 19, 2008 at 11:03 AM
Jukuren,
"OK first of all, does Ned really wear snakeskin boots?"
Indeed he does.
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | November 19, 2008 at 11:28 AM
Exactly, build a highly competive team and manage your finances to make it happen! We will need Koufax-like pitching to win next year with the current group of hitters.
Posted by: Joe the Plumber | November 19, 2008 at 11:30 AM
If Manny will not go for 2 years fat money with a 3rd year team option...then say bye bye Manny AND HELLO CC!
Sign CC Sabathia to the 6 year, 110 Million. It is a safer bet than Manny. Trade for Beltre.
Resign Furcal...3 years with a cheap buy out clause if he reinjures his back.
Work FAJ back into shape.
CC, Beltre, Furcal and a renewed not so F, FAJ...my recipe for sucess.
Posted by: gus2327 | November 19, 2008 at 11:52 AM
I post so frequently on here that I'm sure this is redundant for all the regulars...
CC is extremely high-risk after 4 years. But if you can sign him and replace Manny with a .380 OBP and 40 HR, you clearly come out better next year than this year.
I will not be upset if neither is signed, because that means we are able to spend more elsewhere (5th starter, 2B/3B, SS). I have no doubt that all $60 mil we have available for next year will be spent, and I think it would be a mistake to put all eggs in one basket.
If I were Ned, I would:
A) Ditch the snakeskin boots,
B) shave the 'stache,
,
C) find a new haircut that's more "LA"... and
D) Determine the market value of Adam Dunn.
Posted by: VA Blueblood | November 19, 2008 at 12:24 PM
Rameriz - Offer 5 year guaranteed contract at $25, $20, $15, $10, $5 per year with incentives based upon plate appearances. Incentives should allow him to make $25 mil per year if he remains healthy and productive enough to not get benched for Pierre.
Sabathia - Offer 12 year guaranteed contract ($120 - 240 mil) with $20 mil for year 1 - 4 and $5 mil for years 5 to 12. Incentives should allow him to make $20 mil per year if he remains healthy and productive enough to not get benched for Park. Great contract from a financial planning perspective and balances club versus player risks. He can buy income replacement insurance in case of injury.
Platoon Nomar ($2 mil plus $ per game) with DeWitt at 3rd; sign Furcal for 3 years ($5 mil plus $ per game); let 2nd base be the trainee position for future infielders.
Get a good back up catcher for 2 years.
Invite Maddox to spring training as a player coach for $500K minimum just for showing up and let him travel between LV-Home, A and AAA as a special part-time pitching instructor.
Sign Randy J, as an interim pitcher to reduce McDonalds innings.
After these conttracts are signed put Jones in AAA next year and sue him for fraud
Posted by: Ken | November 19, 2008 at 12:39 PM
AK,
Too much information.... it's no wonder Ned gets ripped off. I thought Malone was an idiot w/ his maverick image, Ned portrays an used car salesman w/ cheap snake boots... The GM for the LA Dodgers should at least have a professional image, even if he is not professional. Look at our elected GM on blog, Ben-Zo. The guy has class written all over him... professional... a self claimed 5 star cuisine chef... and uh... lives in Vegas!
Posted by: Rob | November 19, 2008 at 01:18 PM
Ken,
i like your suggestions. Bu tother than having Dewitt at 3rd, I don't see any of the others happening.
David S
Posted by: David s | November 19, 2008 at 02:25 PM
Here are some long term solutions to the dodgers off season issues:
Step 1 - Sign CC. for all the obvious reasons that all of you pointed out. As SC put it (most importantly) - it will greatly impact our young rotation.
Step 2 - Sign Mark Teixeira at 1st base - then send James Loney to left field.
Step 3 - Fill the rest of the roster if you can. Can't resign both raffy & blake with the remainder of the McCourts Salary Cap? That's fine. Do what you can. If any holes remain? Leave them.
At 26, Teixeira has not hit his prime (a scary notion to all pitchers). Both signings would send a strong message of long term committment to winning and a changing of previous regimes' feeble attempts to stop gap with highly overpriced and over the hill players past their prime.
CC, as mentioned before, is 28. Teixeira is 26. Sign him for 10 years and $200M. Then allow Loney to roam the outfield - he'll be a defensive upgrade to manny.
The Dodgers constantly bring up their management mantra of building their future through youth - not smoke and mirrors.
What the dodgers might consider is making the tough decision (for their team and for their fans) that aquiring two players coming into their prime and leaving a few gaping holes in their lineup is a much better long term investment.
Posted by: David Cabrini | November 19, 2008 at 02:50 PM
To me it's not a question of who you'd rather spend $100 million on. It's a question of who you'd rather have in years 4 and 5 of the deal.
a) a 40-41-year-old outfielder who is already a defensive liability at 36 and has proven himself impossible to trade because of his behavior
or
b) a 31-32-year-old pitcher.
Frankly, I'd trade for the 32-year-old pitcher today; years 28-31 on Sabathia are just gravy.
There are other options for offense, including Dunn, Renteria, and any number of Orlandos (Hudson, Cabrera).
Plus if we know anything about Billy Beane, Matt Holliday will be available by July 1. And now that he's not in Colorado any more, there's no worry about him being traded within the same division. Ifthe Dodgers need offense in mid-season, there will be plenty of places to find it.
I find it odd that so many on this blog are certain of the development of the Dodgers' young pitching (expecting Kershaw, McDonald, and Billz all to step it up from their 2008 performances) but are not as optimistic about their young hitters. I think it a whole lot more likely that Loney, Ethier, Martin, Kemp, and DeWitt start to find their power strokes as they get more daily playing time.
Posted by: SaMo | November 19, 2008 at 02:51 PM
BK -
I'm with you on this one. I clearly remember the Dreifort and Brown deals, and just the thought of them makes me cringe and want to dry-heave. Like you said, as good as CC is, and as much as he would be a nice addition to the rotation, the Dodgers could put together a competitive rotation without having to bring in CC, You just simply can not replace Manny's value to the team, the city, the fans and the lineup, or his production to this lineup.
Posted by: dodgrdog88 | November 19, 2008 at 03:45 PM
While I wouldn't mind seeing CC at the top of the rotation, it was scoring that kept the Dodgers in second place most of the year and did not turn around until Manny arrived.
Absolutely a tough year to be Ned, but as fans, we'd better be prepared for neither of these players to be in Dodger blue. If they fail on both (and fail may be the wrong word) then make sure Furcal comes back, get Randy Johnson for a year or two, convince Maddux to come back, try to work a trade for Beltre, and most importantly, let someone else sign Adam Dunn.
Posted by: dalegribel | November 19, 2008 at 04:13 PM
I believe if the Dodgers can get CC for 90% of the Yankees offered.
Posted by: A Scanner Darkly | November 19, 2008 at 04:40 PM
I really want Manny back. My man-crush on Manny is probably at a disturbing and/or unhealthy level.But if that doesnt happen, I will certainly not be dissapointed if we can then land CC I think that it would be a great consolation to land a pitcher who can probably steal a few wins for a lesser lineup, with expected growth from Ethier and Kemp and perhaps an at least decent batting average at third via free agency. The Dbacks aren't going anywhere, the Rockies are unpredictable, but with the sad state of the Padres and the post Bonds big-nameless Giants, we could certainly win the division. Will it be enough in the playoffs? Well no one can replace the amazing calm and clutchness of Manny on the playoff stage, but then again, we have seen a dominant 1-2 punch carry Arizona to a world series, and we could potentially have a great 1-2 in CC and Bills. I still say we sign CC AND somehow convince D Lowe to stay. Though nobody even seems to think thats close to a possibility.
Posted by: Mike G | November 19, 2008 at 05:50 PM
I'd rather the Dodgers sign Manny, because this team is badly in need of offense and it doesn't seem to be able to grow it on the farm.
Also being a New Yorker I can tell you that Manny can give them some badly needed "Star Power", that they can use to go back to their glory days as a well known team.
CC would help, but not like Manny can.
Posted by: Joe Pierre | November 19, 2008 at 05:59 PM
The Dodgers can't offer anything more than 3 years for Manny. But that offer has to be at 75 million. That's the only thing the Dodgers can do to hold on to Manny and it making sense for the Dodgers.
4 years is just too much.
mike t.
Posted by: Michael C. Teniente | November 19, 2008 at 07:31 PM
Bring Jack Sparrow back. CC just isn't maritime enough.
Posted by: asdf | November 19, 2008 at 09:28 PM
Guys-
I think I'll always be of the old-school thinking, that you win with pitching, defense and clutch hitting.
With that in mind ...
1. Sign CC Sabathia. Having someone like him will help Dodgers fans deal with not having Manny in Dodger blue. Besides, we need an innings-eater, ace -- and Billingsley isn't there just yet.
2. Sign Furcal. He's our sparkplug; our Pedroia. He's looking for a four-year deal, but I think we could get away with a three-year contract with an option for a fourth.
3. Trade for Beltre. This is huge because his bat will at least lessen the loss of Manny. Beltre is still good for 30 HRs and a gold-glove caliber fielder.
Posted by: True Blue | November 20, 2008 at 12:37 AM
i'm leaning more toward manny right now because ...
1.) pithchers tend to break down and get injured more often than position players.
2.) manny would be an every day player as opposed to CC who would go every five days.
Posted by: 88 | November 20, 2008 at 02:49 AM
CC, Bills, MacDonald, Kuroda and maybe Schmidt or Randy would be good enough pitching if we get Tex. Don't forget, the kids are going to be better and have more power next year, although I am not so sure about Martin. Something is wrong there besides too many innings.
Keep DeWitt at 2nd. He doesn't hit with enough power to be at 3B but more than enough to replace Kent.
This team has good chemistry with or without Manny and will do very well next year. The key is Sabathia. Period. Nobody out there is even close. Burnett would be better than nothing but would probably be a #2.
Posted by: Jack in DC | November 20, 2008 at 05:42 AM
Tooooooooooo much money for a pitcher, I'd rather have the Belly Itcher.
Posted by: benzojones | November 20, 2008 at 06:48 AM
For the money Manny Ramirez or CC Sabathia costs the Dodgers can keep Derek Lowe, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake and add Adam Dunn. I think the Dodgers would fill more holes and be much better with 4 over 1.
Posted by: John H | November 20, 2008 at 06:54 AM
John H,
"For the money Manny Ramirez or CC Sabathia costs the Dodgers can keep Derek Lowe, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake and add Adam Dunn. I think the Dodgers would fill more holes and be much better with 4 over 1."
In the case of Lowe, the problem isn't the money involved or a lack of Dodger interest. It's that Lowe, according to the general consensus, doesn't want to return. Can't really do anything about that.
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | November 20, 2008 at 08:23 AM
Say it ain't so Jack. No way should big Ned be taking a chance on oft injured Burnnett. What about Kershaw in your rotation?
If there is money, I'd rather sign Manny and RJ than Dunn and CC. Manny's influence on the kids in locker room (whoever thought that would be said) will have positive value long beyond his Dodger tenure.
Don't count Schmidt out as a big plus in the rotation. I have the feeling he may fill the #2 or 3 spot. Kershaw and Macdonald still need to be brought along slowly, so Bills and Kuroda will need that long term veteran support.
Posted by: dalegribel | November 20, 2008 at 08:25 AM