Buster Olney on Manny Ramirez: The market is a changin'
Very interesting stuff today from Buster Olney at ESPN.com on Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers' offer of arbitration for the dreadlocked slugger:
Executives around baseball ... are having a difficult time envisioning how Ramirez would make more in salary in 2009 than if he accepted arbitration. He made $20 million last season -- although the present-day value was just a little more than $17 million -- and following a historic performance in which Ramirez hit .396 for the Dodgers in two months, driving in 53 runs in 53 games, his arbitration award would be breathtaking. (Scott) Boras would be in position to set a new and stunning standard through that process, and could ask for A-Rod money.
But accepting arbitration would represent a staggering surrender for Ramirez, who had hoped for a nine-figure contract, and for Boras, who has been talking a deal for as long as six years for the 36-year-old outfielder. One year for $28 million is a long way from four years for $100 million, or six years for $150 million. Some friends of Ramirez do not believe that he will allow Boras to take arbitration, as tempting as it may be. "This is not going to be an easy time for Scott," a friend of Ramirez said.
Always fun when the interests of Boras and a Boras client seem to clash. (Scotty B. wouldn't try to push a guy in a direction he might otherwise not want to go, would he? Perish the thought.)
Olney believes right now, the Dodgers are well positioned in the Manny Sweepstakes. If by chance Manny accepts arbitration -- personally, I don't see it happening -- the Blue can welcome him back with only a one-year commitment. While that risks a sulking Ramirez in '09 and more extension talk than a focus group for Viagra users, from the team's perspective it would be ideal. And certainly Manny would return motivated for another deal. If he doesn't and signs somewhere else, Olney believes the Dodgers can legitimately say they tried, based on a $45-million offer they put out last month. Plus, they'd get the two draft picks as compensation.
Olney continues, and to me, this is where it gets more interesting:
There has been a push from the media in L.A. for the Dodgers to go to a third or fourth year to sign Ramirez (Editor's note: Buster must be reading Blue Notes!), but a question that should be considered is this: Who, exactly, is competing with the Dodgers' offers? What force in the market would appear to compel them to go beyond what they have on the table? And wouldn't it be poor management to compete with one's own offer?
Boras mentioned earlier this offseason, in speaking with reporters, his belief that Major League Baseball is beyond the reach of the nation's economic trouble. But on the face of it, the negotiating landscape for Ramirez beyond the Dodgers' offer of arbitration appears to be very ugly. Many of the traditional big-money teams won't be involved.
I've written/spoken at length about my feelings on the Dodgers' first offer to Ramirez, and how I didn't think the offer was a legitimate one, if the goal was to actually bring him back. A starting point? Sure. A final offer? No. But that was predicated on the notion that there would be a market for Manny that went to three or four years, perhaps even five. I fully admit that measuring the free-agent market has never been my strength, and if it's not as robust as I thought -- for the record, I always put a lot of faith in Buster -- then Olney is exactly right. There's no reason for the Dodgers to bid against themselves, as they've done in the past (see Brown, Kevin).
He notes that beyond Manny, "prices in the corner outfield market are collapsing." That means guys like Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu could be lighter in the wallet than they expected, which could drag down the figures for the premier players like Ramirez. (Incidentally, the idea of Bobby Abreu came up on our chat earlier in the week, and initially I didn't like the idea, but upon further review I'm warming up to it. He's not the Abreu of seven years ago but is still a productive player, and if the terms were right could be a nice consolation prize. Obviously that would add more crowd to the OF, but in a non-Manny world an Ethier/Kemp/Abreu OF seems more appealing than anything with Juan Pierre or Andruw Jones, at least offensively. Abreu is a pretty wretched outfielder at this point in his career, but so are the other available FAs. Again, the devil is in the details, but the notion seems more appealing now than it did a few days ago. And I'm still bullish on Randy Johnson!)
If the market has shrunk the way Olney seems to believe, it'll add serious tension to Hot Stove season. Timing will be incredibly important: Jump too early and players could miss out on the better offers as teams become more, um, motivated to fill holes. Wait too long and the money could dry up. It also 
changes the context of the discussion for the Dodgers. If the price comes down on Dunn, for example, while Boras continues to push for length and bucks for Manny, the price/benefit ratio improves on the lefty slugger and all the other second-tier guys because it leaves more money for the team to improve in other areas.
I'm not on Boras' speed dial, so I don't know his plan, but he's never been a guy to rush, instead preferring to play chicken with opposing GMs, waiting for them to veer into a ditch. It seems to work. This season, though, he could be in trouble. If he pushes Ramirez to arbitration, we'll know.
At some point, the Dodgers will have to make a move to start the process of filling the many holes on the roster, if only to narrow the potential directions they can go. From a personnel standpoint, I'm still all about bringing Manny back. He's the best bat out there, and the team desperately needs one. If Olney's analysis of the market is on target, patience, both in measuring any new offer to Manny and in waiting him out, could be the order of the day.
In other news:
- Kurt Streeter of the LAT has another view of the whole McCourt/salary/children controversy. I think he misses the point, but it's worth reading another perspective.
- Edgar Renteria is headed to San Francisco. The Giants have already brought in Bobby Howry to bolster their bullpen. Bill Shaikin takes a look at the evolving landscape at shortstop.
- Meanwhile, the Padres continue to cut costs, sending Khalil Greene to St. Louis.
BK
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Interesting discussion by buster... i think he might be right with the market crashing for teams struggling to have $ to sign people. Only the Mets, Bankees Angels Giants and dodgers have that kind of money. It will be interesting to see if the game of chicken might work out this time. Man I would love to see a 1 year contract for 30 million to see if Manny can change the dynamic of this team, then we reward him if so and let him walk if not. The carrot on a stick argument is great, a 1 year deal forces manram to play hard and get his contract. Lets see if Boras finally gets his butt kicked.
Posted by: poppinfresh | December 04, 2008 at 12:35 PM
Finally! Sanity prevails in dealing with these overpriced millionaires. Speaking purely from a fan's perspective, Manny Ramirez is a great hitter but below average outfielder. What happens when he starts kicking away games with that caste-ironed glove. You cannot buy happiness on the free-agent market and if Ramirez really wants to be a Dodger, he'll sign on the dotted line. Please, powers that be!!!, look for more, quality, pitching and save the dough for the farm system. Do not trade your young players! Let them eventually shine as Dodgers.
Posted by: Ralph Buening | December 04, 2008 at 12:49 PM
Bobby Abreu's numbers surprise me. He looks old, and yet he continues to put up 20HR, 100RBI .300 seasons year after year. And he plays 150 games a year. If he could be had for say 3-years $50 mil, I'd say he gives the Dodgers a big bat in the middle. And what an outfield of arms: Abreu in right, Ethier in left, and Kemp in center. That's more guns than in Plaxico Burress's favorite nighclub.
The only down side about Abreu is he's another lefty, leaving the Dodgers quite vulnerable to left-handed pitching.
I don't like Randy Johnson, however. He's too old, too cranky, too erratic to pitch in L.A.
Posted by: SaMo | December 04, 2008 at 01:14 PM
Anyone who signs Manny for more than 2 years at a time is a complete fool. He has proven over and over that when his contract is almost he plays his hardest and when he has time and money in his pocket he's a slacker. Good bat mediocre fielder to guarantee this bumm more than 1 or 2 years at a time is a compelely stupid move
Posted by: RD | December 04, 2008 at 01:49 PM
For once Coletti is at an advantage. He can just sit back and wait for the game to come to him. It's Boras' move, and frankly he may not get any other offers for Manny. I will be happier than a one-eyed jack at a clam bake when we sign Manny for less than we initially offered him.
(and P.S.: "mediocre" or "below average" are statements that, to use W's lexicon, "misunderestimate" Manny's fielding ability. He is without question the single worst left fielder in the major leagues. It's just that his bat is so blindingly good that most fans don't notice this).
Posted by: VA Blueblood | December 04, 2008 at 02:24 PM
Laughing at L.A.
Laughing at L.A.
Giants fan laugh at L.A.
While your Dodgers fall apart, the Giants are tooling up to be NL champs!
We are keeping our great youthful core.
And adding oodles of talent!
Edgar Renteria!
Bobby Howry!
Jeremy Affeldt!
We still have enough dough to pursue Manny and/or Burrell AND CC Sabathia!
I don't see any team competing with the Giants in the NL West, and I wonder if any will be able to compete with us in the NL, period.
Huuuuum baby!
Posted by: Tim McCuddahy | December 04, 2008 at 03:28 PM
I have two questions:
1. What kind of trade value would someone like Sultz have? I would imagine mot much but i think he could be a good pitcher if given a better chance.
2. what about trading for JJ hardy for a SS? Brewers want pitching, and they have an upcoming SS to play. I have read that they may be willing to trade him for pitching.
Posted by: Gillbert | December 04, 2008 at 03:54 PM
Someone please educate me on this whole free agent process. If a club makes an offer to a player's agent, and then that agent gets another offer from another club, would that agent be required to show that 2nd offer to the 1st club to prove that there's a better offer on the table at any point during the negotiation? Otherwise, the agent could take advantage of the entire process and start making up stuff, with the 1st club ending up competing against itself, therefore driving up the price unnecessarily.
Posted by: Artful Dodger | December 04, 2008 at 04:01 PM
Baseball is like chess. Chess pieces vary in both value and abilities. The King is the collective pitching staff. To attach and win you must have a Queen. The Queen is Manny. Sign him and sign some Bishops and Knights to support the Queen! This LA team has too many Pawns and too few Rooks!
Posted by: Joe the Plumber | December 04, 2008 at 04:13 PM
Oooh, Bobby Howry! He scares the daylights out of. . . . well, nobody. He had a 5.35 ERA last year. Opposing batters hit .309 against him. Guys like him don't get better at age 35. They get fatter.
Posted by: SaMo | December 04, 2008 at 04:17 PM
Gotta love a Giants fan getting really excited about Edgar Renteria, Bobby Howry and Jeremy Affeldt. Youthful core? Aaron Rowand? Barry Zito? Bengie Molina? Randy Winn? Rich Aurilia? And now an Edgar Renteria on the wrong side of 30... Am I missing somebody?
Keep laughing, dude...
Posted by: Higgins | December 04, 2008 at 04:37 PM
Artful Dodger -
I don't think they have to show the 1st club anything. I believe Boras was making up fake offers from "another team" when it came down to Darren Dreifort's (disastrous) contract... God, I HATE free agency. Damn you, Andy Messersmith!
Posted by: Higgins | December 04, 2008 at 04:40 PM
Why does it sound more and more like Tim the Cud is a Dodger fan? Because some of his posts are so ridiculous that it HAS to be sarcasm, right? Excuse me for being a little slow, Tim. Those were funny posts!
Posted by: Artful Dodger | December 04, 2008 at 04:42 PM
Hey Tim
Those guys you named in your post really put the fear of God in me!! I am quakeing in my boots. Now I know how Ned got so good at assembling a team. Do you guys have a blog in SF? I am sure they miss you.
Package
Posted by: Package | December 04, 2008 at 04:43 PM
- Stark says that the Dodgers are only going to make an offer to C.C. if C.C. tells the Dodgers if he wants to play in L.A.
There's no better tactic than irritating the player you're trying to sign. Brilliant move.
Posted by: DBrim | December 04, 2008 at 07:03 PM
If SF is supposed to be a list of "Ned's best", that's ok, Tim, it's all good--no worries down here.
We've had our prizes too. For better or worse, Ned had all the time in the world to "misunderstimate" Pierre's throwing &, well, hitting abilities.
In the end, our best players, were the young ones we didn't give away & that really, really big fish we got just for being at the right place at the right time. Thanks Ned!
Hey, that was great stuff Mr. Joe Plumber, the chess analogy. But this year, I don't think Ned stands a chance with even the best laid plans.
Me thinks it's going to be a kinda circular combo of luck & who plays a better game of chicken. & I'm tired of chicken, turn up the stove--let it be done!
Posted by: lizzieinsb | December 04, 2008 at 07:19 PM
Package,
After much perusing and investigative work, I found the SF Gints fan page that Tim the Cud frequents! Check it out!
http://tinyurl.com/35cphy
Posted by: DodgerBlueBalls | December 04, 2008 at 07:25 PM
Sign Bobby Abreu??? Right.....another Luis Gonzales, another Garciaparra, another has-been. When will the Dodgers learn that they need to shore up their positions with players that can still play. I think Adam Dunn will be a better fit than Abreu.
Posted by: dcerros | December 04, 2008 at 08:10 PM
Pay the Man his money... for at least one year
Posted by: benzojones | December 04, 2008 at 08:48 PM
Actually, unbeknownst to Tim, the Giants actually do have a number of very good young prospects. This Dodger fan knows more about his team that he does. Sorry Tim, but you will get no names from me. Do your own research.
By the way, Jeremy Affeldt has a lifetime ERA of 4.79. Closer material for sure.
Posted by: Brooklyn Dodger | December 04, 2008 at 09:19 PM
- McCud is a little over the top, but I think Giants fans have some reason to be excited. Their starting pitching is good and some of their young players, like Burriss and Sandoval, look promising. Benji's still a good, clutch hitter and Rowand, even though they overpayed for him, is solid also. Renteria might be over the hill, but he might also have 80 rbis in him. If they can add a player like Dunn or Burrell, they might be a .500 team (which usually means a contending team in the NL West). I'd like the Giants to be relevant again -- more satisfying when the Dodgers beat them!
- Hopefully Buster Olney is right and the Dodgers are gaining some leverage on Boras in the Manny market. I'd hate to see the Dodgers off-season built around Jack Wilson.
Posted by: D-Web | December 04, 2008 at 09:52 PM
Memo to Ned Colletti: Jack Wilson isn't very good.
Posted by: DBrim | December 04, 2008 at 09:59 PM
I hate to say I told you so, but this is what I have been saying all along. While the majority of Dodger fans clamor for the team to bring back Manny at all costs, I have been trying to plead my case that there is no other team out there that is going to give Manny the kind of money he wants.
These are the facts:
1. The dude is 36 years old.
2. He is a terrible outfielder.
3. He QUIT on his previous team so he wouldn't have to suffer the indignity of playing 2 more years at around $20 Mill/year.
Because we had suffered so long without winning a playoff series we became enamored with Manny when he helped the team finally win one. Sure it was fun watching the team play, but we cannot look beyond his obvious short comings, it would be a terrible mistake to sign him for more than 2 years.
Although many of you criticized the team's initial offer to Manny, I said it then and I still believe that it was too generous. I really would like to see Manny play one more year with the Dodgers, so I guess I won't complain if he accepts arbitration, but I hate to see how much he might be awarded for one year. Secretly though, I would like to see him turn down arbitration because I would love it when Boras and Manny come back on their knees begging for the Dodgers to make an offer and then have the Dodgers sign Manny for less than their initial offer. THAT would be ideal.
Posted by: HardHittin25 | December 05, 2008 at 01:18 AM
DBB
TOO FUNNY!! That is definitely the kind of blog Tim subscribes. Thank You for the laugh.
Package
Posted by: Package | December 05, 2008 at 04:28 AM
Regarding Jack Wilson, this is from Tony Jackson's blog:
"Just found out there is nothing to the Wilson story, that the Dodgers haven't talked to the Pirates about him in months. Not sure exactly where the Dodgers are going to go shortstop-wise if they don't re-sign Furcal, but if they can add offense at another position, they just might be inclined to give Hu/Abreu/Berroa a shot."
Given that the Giants (who just signed Renteria) were one of the teams reportedly pursuing Furcal, I imagine that the odds of the him returning to the Dodgers increased a bit. I know Oakland is supposedly interested, but still, there is now one less team in pursuit.
Posted by: Brooklyn Dodger | December 05, 2008 at 07:31 AM