Buster Olney on Manny Ramirez: The market is a changin'

But accepting arbitration would represent a staggering surrender for Ramirez, who had hoped for a nine-figure contract, and for Boras, who has been talking a deal for as long as six years for the 36-year-old outfielder. One year for $28 million is a long way from four years for $100 million, or six years for $150 million. Some friends of Ramirez do not believe that he will allow Boras to take arbitration, as tempting as it may be. "This is not going to be an easy time for Scott," a friend of Ramirez said.

Always fun when the interests of Boras and a Boras client seem to clash. (Scotty B. wouldn't try to push a guy in a direction he might otherwise not want to go, would he?  Perish the thought.) 

Olney believes right now, the Dodgers are well positioned in the Manny Sweepstakes.  If by chance Manny accepts arbitration -- personally, I don't see it happening -- the Blue can welcome him back with only a one-year commitment.  While that risks a sulking Ramirez in '09 and more extension talk than a focus group for Viagra users, from the team's perspective it would be ideal.  And certainly Manny would return motivated for another deal.  If he doesn't and signs somewhere else, Olney believes the Dodgers can legitimately say they tried, based on a $45-million offer they put out last month.  Plus, they'd get the two draft picks as compensation.

Olney continues, and to me, this is where it gets more interesting:

There has been a push from the media in L.A. for the Dodgers to go to a third or fourth year to sign Ramirez (Editor's note: Buster must be reading Blue Notes!), but a question that should be considered is this: Who, exactly, is competing with the Dodgers' offers? What force in the market would appear to compel them to go beyond what they have on the table? And wouldn't it be poor management to compete with one's own offer?

Boras mentioned earlier this offseason, in speaking with reporters, his belief that Major League Baseball is beyond the reach of the nation's economic trouble. But on the face of it, the negotiating landscape for Ramirez beyond the Dodgers' offer of arbitration appears to be very ugly. Many of the traditional big-money teams won't be involved.

I've written/spoken at length about my feelings on the Dodgers' first offer to Ramirez, and how I didn't think the offer was a legitimate one, if the goal was to actually bring him back.  A starting point? Sure.  A final offer?  No.  But that was predicated on the notion that there would be a market for Manny that went to three or four years, perhaps even five.  I fully admit that measuring the free-agent market has never been my strength, and if it's not as robust as I thought -- for the record, I always put a lot of faith in Buster -- then Olney is exactly right.  There's no reason for the Dodgers to bid against themselves, as they've done in the past (see Brown, Kevin). 

He notes that beyond Manny, "prices in the corner outfield market are collapsing."  That means guys like Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu could be lighter in the wallet than they expected, which could drag down the figures for the premier players like Ramirez. (Incidentally, the idea of Bobby Abreu came up on our chat earlier in the week, and initially I didn't like the idea, but upon further review I'm warming up to it.  He's not the Abreu of seven years ago but is still a productive player, and if the terms were right could be a nice consolation prize.  Obviously that would add more crowd to the OF, but in a non-Manny world an Ethier/Kemp/Abreu OF seems more appealing than anything with Juan Pierre or Andruw Jones, at least offensively.  Abreu is a pretty wretched outfielder at this point in his career, but so are the other available FAs.  Again, the devil is in the details, but the notion seems more appealing now than it did a few days ago.  And I'm still bullish on Randy Johnson!)

If the market has shrunk the way Olney seems to believe, it'll add serious tension to Hot Stove season.  Timing will be incredibly important: Jump too early and players could miss out on the better offers as teams become more, um, motivated to fill holes.  Wait too long and the money could dry up.  It also changes the context of the discussion for the Dodgers.  If the price comes down on Dunn, for example, while Boras continues to push for length and bucks for Manny, the price/benefit ratio improves on the lefty slugger and all the other second-tier guys because it leaves more money for the team to improve in other areas. 

I'm not on Boras' speed dial, so I don't know his plan, but he's never been a guy to rush, instead preferring to play chicken with opposing GMs, waiting for them to veer into a ditch.  It seems to work.  This season, though, he could be in trouble.  If he pushes Ramirez to arbitration, we'll know.   

At some point, the Dodgers will have to make a move to start the process of filling the many holes on the roster, if only to narrow the potential directions they can go.  From a personnel standpoint, I'm still all about bringing Manny back.  He's the best bat out there, and the team desperately needs one.  If Olney's analysis of the market is on target, patience, both in measuring any new offer to Manny and in waiting him out, could be the order of the day. 

In other news:

• Kurt Streeter of the LAT has another view of the whole McCourt/salary/children controversy.  I think he misses the point, but it's worth reading another perspective.
• Edgar Renteria is headed to San Francisco.  The Giants have already brought in Bobby Howry to bolster their bullpen.  Bill Shaikin takes a look at the evolving landscape at shortstop.
• Meanwhile, the Padres continue to cut costs, sending Khalil Greene to St. Louis.

BK