Quick thoughts on Rafael Furcal
Who is apparently, as we speak, re-signing with the Dodgers. Although give it another 10 minutes and he could end up on the Lakers (a 15th roster spot is still available).
It's being reported that Furcal is back for another three years and $30 million, guaranteed. As I expressed just recently, Furcal's back still makes me nervous (it's often a body part that never really heals), thus concerning me that retaining the shortstop for anything along the lines of big dollars or long years is mighty dicey. While three years isn't exactly a life sentence, the money involved isn't quite cat food, either. If Furcal's string of injuries while donning blue continue, the Dodgers are staring down both the grim prospects of metaphorical cash spending its time on a trainer's table, but a very sizable hole in need of filling.
Of course, there is also an obvious upside, should Furcal remain able to stay on the field. His presence makes the Dodgers considerably more dynamic and dangerous, whether at the top of the lineup as one of baseball's better leadoff men or in the field with his range and cannon arm. Furcal's worth as a leader and spark provider, particularly among the Spanish-speaking players, should never be underestimated. As I noted in August (and Joe Torre agreed), the breath of fresh air provided by Manny Ramirez upon arrival in many ways filled the one created with Furcal out of commission. Very clear in his desire to remain a Dodger, the guy has an infectious energy that was noticeably missed on this often absurdly reserved team.
Mind you, the clubhouse is guaranteed to lighten up next season by virtue of Jeff Kent's absence, but that's beside the point.
At any rate, it's all about Furcal remaining in one piece through 2011. Fingers crossed ...
AK
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I guess it could be worse. It's not clear that Hu will ever amount to anything other than a AAAA player, or that Ivan de Jesus, Jr. will be, either. We may get to find out.
Posted by: Rob McMillin | December 17, 2008 at 07:07 PM
I hope he can stay healthy, but I worry he may be Rafaelmar Furciaparra
Posted by: benzojones | December 17, 2008 at 07:21 PM
In my post in the previous thread I used the early numbers attributed to the Furcal signing. The new revised numbers make it a guaranteed $30 million, NOT $33 million. But as noted previously, the deal is backloaded, giving the Dodgers greater payroll flexibility in the early years. The details are found in the following link.
http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081217&content_id=3720331&vkey=news_la&fext=.jsp&c_id=la
The kambrothers link also provides the same info, although they mistakenly reported the since revised $33 million (now $30 million). Then again, what's a lousy $3 million? I propose that the $3 million saved be divided evenly among all the Blue Notes bloggers.
Of course, lots can happen between the agreement and the appointment for the physical. Just ask the Braves.
Posted by: Brooklyn Dodger | December 17, 2008 at 07:34 PM
All I can say is, "Thank God, honey, you're home--Yeaaahhh!!!"
The real surprise is that Ned actually said he'd stay up all night working etc., to try to work things out. That's the greatest presentation of motivation from the front office in eons. Finally, a nice break from a boundary-less season of dissembling or worse.
Backs are funny. Anyone would worry, yeah, especially with Raffy's history. He could be fine, but maybe not so fine .
On the other hand, equal odds probably apply to Blake DeW, who could (God forbid) experience a similar problem. But then we'd be none the wiser 'til he said "Owww".
A lot of stuff hurts that doesn't show up on MRIs or other imaging, and, more amazing vice versa, big bulging disc, and person with no pain.
My feeling is that if Raffy rehab'd out of it once, his odds are good for staying healthy--it's really not a Nomar thing..
Posted by: lizzieinsb | December 17, 2008 at 08:45 PM
Firing Stan Conte would help.
Posted by: DBrim | December 17, 2008 at 10:12 PM
Dbrim i agree Conte is the biggest idiot the team has. He has to be the worst personal trainer in professional sports. I am for hiring Dr. Nick from the Simpsons.. i bet he could do a better job.
As for Raffy's contract i think it is a good one. As other posters have pointed out, the backloading allows for Flanders to keep payroll down to sign other FA's. The infield is set, now time to focus on pitching.
Posted by: poppinfresh | December 18, 2008 at 07:49 AM
If Raffy is healthy and puts up great number hitting in front of Manny (now, he will come), we have a very good chance to go to the playoffs and the W/S
If Raffy's back goes south, Ned gets fired.
This is a win-win.
Posted by: Jack in DC | December 18, 2008 at 07:49 AM
The concerns about Raffy's back remind me of the concerns the Mariners once voiced about Randy Johnson's back. Let's hope Raffy's post-back-injury career is as fruitful as The Unit's.
Posted by: Dodger Doodle | December 18, 2008 at 07:49 AM
3 years guaranteed, no way Atlanta isn't laughing their asses off at the Dodgers. No way. Atlanta isn't stupid. Their contract was probably completely incentive laden knowing Raffy is only good for 80 games a year, MAX. All the McCourts need to do now is overpay for a 4th or 5th SP, then claim they ran out of money "filling other holes". But hey, at least LA kids will be able to play in new McCourt baseball parks, dreaming one day of becoming Angels.
It was so simple. Get CC. Get Manny. Win games. Be loved by LA. Get richer. The McCourts just want to get to step 5 without doing 1-4.
Posted by: Wayne | December 18, 2008 at 07:49 AM
My feeling is that it's a high-risk, high-reward signing. The Gnats signed Renteria, who is low-risk, low-reward (though a better offensive player than anyone in their last year's lineup).
Posted by: WBB | December 18, 2008 at 07:50 AM
Backs are tricky. I know from experience. They often signal pain that is coming from somewhere else.
Recall, however, that Don Mattingly was nver the same after his back went out. Nor was Larry Bird. Those are just off the top of my head, but I'm sure there are dozens of others. The Dodgers could be stuck with Darrfael Dreifcal for a very long time.
But hey, even if Furcal does get hurt, the Dodgers will still have Juan Pierre for the next THREE YEARS to step in at leadoff for him.
Posted by: SaMo | December 18, 2008 at 08:06 AM
I know it's not my money but this could be good news if Furcal can return to the form he showed in September/October but it's bad news if this is an indicator that Dodgers have shot their bullet and don't anything left to sign ManRam...let's face it, Raffy does have some pop FOR A SHORTSTOP. We need a real cleanup hitter...oh, that's right, we had one...
Posted by: zelator90004 | December 18, 2008 at 10:38 AM
I think signing Furcal is great for numerous reasons. First as I've stated many times before, the upside outweight the risks for 3 years.
Secondly we have Conte, who is the best trainer out there and NEVER makes a misdiagnosis. Furcal will not go back on the DL (ok, so I'm wrong on this one).
Third, the fact the Ned actually made a bold move speaks volumes. He actually spent $$$. He gained back some credibility... up to this point, Ned was considered the big loser in the Winter meetings in the media... not being able to get anything done and in fact losing most of his free agents.
BD,
I posted so I am a LA dodgers Blogger and want part of the 3 million.
Wayne,
It wasn't that simple?! CC could get hurt too.... Manny is old and he likely won't put up last half's numbers. If CC gets hurt, the Yankees are screwed for the next 7 years.... I think you're too concerned about Today and not giving any thought to the future...if today is all you're looking at, today will be great but after that things will likely be bleak in the future for a long time. Playing for today W/ an EYE for the future is the way to go... lets not get too caught up w/ instant gratification.
Posted by: Rob | December 18, 2008 at 12:19 PM
I like the Furcal signing, and think it is a win-win for both sides. While there is risk with Furcal's back, there is also a very good return to the Dodgers if he is healthy and productive. Locking Furcal up for 3 years is much better than seeing either Hu, Berroa, or DeJesus at short next year. I like the fact that the term of the contact was short, and the yearly salary was less than what Furcal made over the last three years. Since the deal is heavily back-loaded the Dodgers have payroll flexibility in the short term which they can apply to making more acquisitions.
As AK also noted, Furcal is a positive boost to team chemistry, which will benefit from Kent's absence as well. All the way around I think this is a smart deal for the Dodgers, and is also a win for Furcal.
Posted by: Santa Rosa Dodger | December 18, 2008 at 12:44 PM
Now we definitely need Manny back to get our post-season line-up back. That line-up was a killer. We can then go for the late season pitching acquisition next year. But we MUST get Manny. I am going to 0 games next year if we don't.
Posted by: Dodger Dude | December 18, 2008 at 01:28 PM
I don't like this signing, too many years and too much money in my opinion. This will be another contract Ned will live to regret. I can't believe the Dodgers would sign up for another three years after they got like a year and a half of playing time from the first three year deal. I hope I am wrong on this one.
Funny that after the Dodgers make this move seemingly to appease their fans who are restless about how the offseason is going so far, you still have guys like Wayne claiming this is their way of not paying for the big FAs.
Hey Wayne:
1. The Dodgers were never going to be able to compete with the Yankees for CC. They would be idiots to pay that much money for him.
2. The Dodgers already made an offer for Manny (too generous by the way), it would be dumb for them to bid against themselves. If someone else gets serious about Manny, then they can reassess the situation. Until then, they are playing this perfectly in my opinion.
3. I believe they will win with or without Manny.
4. The fans will be loving the team when they make the playoffs again.
Posted by: HardHittin25 | December 18, 2008 at 01:30 PM
Sign Manny to $62 million over 3 years w/ a 4th year vesting @$7 million per w/500 PAs each year($21 million 4th year, for a $83 million total). And sign Randy Johnson for $5 million.
Posted by: A Scanner Darkly | December 18, 2008 at 01:56 PM
I am certain that the Dodgers will sign either Manny, Dunn or Abreu, and I hope they go after them in that order. However, with Manny it is still a waiting game to see if anyone else actually gets into the bidding. If in the meantime they are able to sign Dunn for around $13 million per, I think that would be too good a deal to pass up. And in that case I would hope that Ned spends the savings on another shot at Lowe, or at least at corralling an excellent pen.
In any event, if we can sign one of those three then we can expect a .380 or better OBP and 20 (low: Abreu) to 40 (high: Dunn) homers. That is fine production from a cleanup hitter, and with Loney, Kemp, Ethier and Martin all a year better (plus Matt Holiday now in the AL) we should have the best offense in the division.
Manny would still be the best bat available, but only at the right price. The drop-off to Dunn or Abreu is not as dramatic as many seem to believe. And I have to believe that money not spent on Manny is money that could go to a superior pitching staff.
Posted by: VA Blueblood | December 18, 2008 at 02:20 PM
Cat food, huh? Interesting analogy. Actually, the signing may cost very little. If he's healthy, he's obviously worth the contract money, we all can agree on that. If not, DeJesus or Hu take over for very little outlay. Look at it more that the Blue spent $6.8 mil this year on a shortstop; you can plug the name in depending on that day's starter.
Posted by: dalegirbel | December 18, 2008 at 02:33 PM
Va Blueblood
Please! Stop with the Adam Dunn scenario. His .247 career avg. and .381 OBP does not equate to at least a .390OBP as you suggest. He is not what the Dodgers need. Yes, he hits a possible 40HRs, but that is not enough to put fear in anyone. And then you give us Abreu. What have you been smoking? HaHa I know, I know they would be cheap. And so it goes.
Package
Posted by: Package | December 18, 2008 at 05:59 PM
Package,
In fact, a .381 OBP DOES equate to the .380 OBP I mentioned. And Batting Average, which you seem to adore, is absolutely irrelevant. Yes, absolutely irrelevant. I know that you have embraced it as the end-all and be-all of statistics since the day you first saw an infield green, but I'm here to tell you that the world is not flat, that the sun does not orbit the earth, and that we did in fact evolve from monkeys.
Batting Average is for guys who failed math. Batting Average is eating soup with a fork. Batting Average is hand operated after the discovery of electricity. Batting Average is a slide rule in the world of calculators. Batting Average is David Eckstein in the NFL. Batting Average is your local news. Batting Average is the Edsel. Batting Average was invented by a guy who loved pitchers, and thought that a batter who didn't swing shouldn't be on the team (Henry Chadwick, a kid from Princeton in the 1880s). Dude, George W. Bush likes Batting Average.
Batting Average is worthless. I will give you that Ks matter, and specifically K:AB and K:BB are useful statistics. Adam Dunn is horrific at the former, but acceptable on the latter. Dunn will take mad pitches, and often strike out waiting for one he can crush. Acceptable losses for a Three-True-Outcomes player (I'm certain you have no idea what that means, Package, but others might), because, damn can that dude crush a pitch. Doesn't "put fear in anyone!?!?!" Please son, there's not a team in the majors who wouldn't put 40 dingers at 3 or 4 in the lineup, and there's not a pitching coach alive who wouldn't begin his pre-game lecture with what to do on Dunn so as NOT to give up the 3-run dagger...
But yes, I concur that Dunn's bat next year--and maybe even the year after--has an overall less impact than Manny's. If nothing else, you're giving up 20 precious OBP points. Yet $13 million per is far from "cheap," dude, and that seems about right for a downgrade if you put Manny between 15 and 20.
And clearly you have absolutely no idea what kind of a hitter Bobby Abreu is. I mean, seriously, no idea whatsoever. .400 OBP, like clockwork. But what do you care, it's just another chance to complain...
I think I like responding to you, Package, only because you give me such a platform for stamping out baseball ignorance. Much appreciated, homes.
Posted by: VA Blueblood | December 18, 2008 at 07:31 PM
Dodger Dude: Yeah that lineup was realy formidable against the Phillies, wasn't it?
Does anyone give Andruw Jones a shot in hell to put up any numbers next year?
Latest reports say Boston may be leading for Teixiera. I bet that gets the Yankees and Angels involved with Manny...thus driving the price up.
Darkly: Randy Johnson? Really? What about ben Sheets or Pettite?
Posted by: VA Dodger | December 18, 2008 at 07:34 PM
Can we go out and get some pitching already?
Posted by: Andres | December 18, 2008 at 08:28 PM
Package, I agree, I am d-u-n with dunn. I'd rather have Pierre playing left in a Borat mankini wearing Manny dreads than see Dunn as a Dodger.
Posted by: benzojones | December 18, 2008 at 08:44 PM
The sun doesn't revolve around the Earth? When did that happen?
BK
Posted by: kambrothers | December 18, 2008 at 10:05 PM