Sheehan becomes GM ... for a day
I've said it before, I'll say it again: You really need a subscription to Baseball Prospectus, even if it means the kids go to a state college (private schools mean nothing if they show up thinking batting average, RBIs and wins are a perfect measure of a player's value).
Yesterday, Joe Sheehan stepped into the snakeskin boots of Ned Colletti and presented his plan to tie up all the loose ends the Dodgers face this offseason. It's a doozy but requires no TARP funds, which is always a positive:
Coming off of a division title as a high-revenue franchise with a fantastic farm system —even after sloughing off talent right and left over the last few years — you would think the Dodgers might be in fantastic shape. They're certainly better off than many teams, but look past the crown and the money and the kids, and you find a team that is going to be changed significantly a year from now, one that has a staggering amount of dead money on the payroll, and one which is run, from the top down, a bit strangely.
The core talent here is as good as you'll find for ability, age, payroll and team control. Russell Martin, James Loney, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw match up with any top six roster spots in the game once payroll and control are considered. Some teams go decades without having that much talent come through their system; the Dodgers will put five of those guys on the field 40 percent of the time next year.
I can't cut and paste the whole thing, so please don't get mad at Sheehan if you think his ideas are half-baked based on what you see here. They might be, but at least read the whole thing before judging. Obviously he goes into more depth than I can here. Sheehan has a few prescriptions to fill holes with (and this should make NC happy) short-term deals for vets, particularly at second base where Ray Durham would be a fairly cheap stopgap who requires no draft compensation. Blake DeWitt would then move to third.
As he continues, Sheehan writes under the assumption that Manny is and should be gone, meaning something must be done before Juan Pierre (enemy of all that BP finds holy) and Andruw Jones (enemy of all that Dodgers fans find holy) end up with regular PT. The most interesting idea of his offseason plan involves trading for Milwaukee's Rickie Weeks, moving him to center with Kemp in right and Either in left.
And if it turns out Weeks can't play center? Well, there's always that hole at second.
His final prescription:
So here's the plan, in order of importance:
Sign Derek Lowe for four years and $62 million. He's the best fit for this team and this payroll, and there should be some value to Lowe in not having to relocate. If there's not, ply him with additional money.
Trade Xavier Paul and Victor Garate to the Brewers for Rickie Weeks; then make Weeks a center fielder. It's a low bid, and honestly, I'm skeptical enough of DeJesus' power and ability to play shortstop than I might deal him if that's what it took to get Weeks.
Sign Ray Durham for two years, $8 million. The extra year is designed to get this over with quickly, as the falloff from Durham to the next option is steep enough to want to avoid the question. If Durham is done, this is an easy contract to eat. Speaking of which …
Release Andruw Jones. Ideally, you could get him to agree to a buyout, where he takes 60 cents on the dollar and gets to hit the market again, choosing that ahead of a season in which he bats 125 times as the Dodgers' fifth outfielder. There's no place for him on this roster. A year ago, I loved this signing; I was very, very wrong.
Sign Javier Valentin. He starts 30-35 games against good right-handed pitchers and is a very good pinch-hitter the rest of the time.
Re-sign Takashi Saito. Offer him a high-upside deal. It's not likely there's much guaranteed money available for him, and he's one of those "good or unavailable" guys.
Offer arbitration to Ramirez. I can't fathom him taking it, and almost no team uses draft picks as well as the Dodgers do.
Sheehan and I don't agree on the Manny thing -- he is spooked by his age and defense, calling Manny a "big negative defensively whose presence creates worse defense at the other two outfield spots as well." And he believes the Blue's cash could better be spent on other players (or orphanages). As has been made pretty clear throughout the offseason, I think Manny is a risk worth taking, one that must be taken if possible.
Matt Kemp is an ulcer generator in center, but I don't think Weeks would constitute an improvement -- center field is hard, people -- nor am I sold on Weeks as an offensive force (his VORP last season was lower than Jeff Kent's). So for that you're going to give up two prospects and ask the guy to change positions?
Meanwhile, without Manny or some other Genuine Big Bat, the offense becomes scarily weak. The children may suffer if Manny returns, but without him the Dodgers could lose serious revenue as adult ticket buyers, driven by the stress from an excess of 2-1 losses, silently walk into the sea and drown themselves Kate Chopin style.
Regarding the rest of the list, bringing back Lowe would make me happier than even this fellow, but I wonder if they can (in this case, it really does take two to tango, and the CW at the end of the season said Lowe wanted to relocate). I mentioned my skepticism on Weeks but have no problem with a Ray Durham stopgap at the right price.
The backup catcher thing (he recommends Valentin) is a biggie. He'd work for me but, honestly, they need SOMEONE to fill the slot that Joe Torre would be willing to play. Russell Martin's workload needs to go down -- truly down -- next year.
Bringing back Saito would constitute a low-risk, high-reward move ... and besides, the guy once gave me a great pair of Japanese-style toe socks with his number on them. I'm nothing if not loyal.
Shortstop remains a big question. Sheehan pencils in Chin-lung Hu, but I don't think his reconstructed Dodger lineup can support him. If Hu is the starter next season, the bats around him will need to be beefed up. Of the available FAs, Orlando Cabrera and Edgar Renteria are the two big names. I prefer Renteria, but neither will put you confidently to sleep the night he is signed. Like so many things in this world, it would depend on money and length.
BK

I really think Tony Abreu can fill our 2B hole. We need a SS, though; I don't think rushing DeJesus' development like we did with Hu's is a good idea. We need a high level starter, and ideally an OF bat (in my opinion the arm comes first which is why I've been saying CC all along).
I like his Jones idea, and bringing Saito back for a year or two definitely wouldn't hurt. Valentin is also a good idea that had not crossed my mind.
Posted by: DBrim | December 02, 2008 at 11:42 AM
I can't say I like any of those moves other than re-signing Saito. That's a no-brainer. He adds class to the pen, whether he's the closer or an 9th-inning guy. Just having him out there will help the Ox.
Weeks in Center? Do we even know he can play center? Why isn't he playing it for milwaukee if that's the case.
Derek Lowe doesn't want to return to LA, so money isn't the issue.
Most of all, where's the bat? I think offering Manny arbitration is a great idea if you can re-sign him for just one year. I'd be happy to pay him $36 million for one year. But more than two years would be a disaster.
If you don't sign Manny, you still need a bat, whether it's in the outfield or at third base. Trade for Troy Galus before you trade for Rickie Weeks. Sign Adam Dunn if you don't want to give away prospects. But you HAVE to have some big bat in the lineup. Ethier and Kemp and Loney are all going to be solid, but none is a true home run threat yet.
As for Durham, why not keep Nomar if you want an old, immobile utility player? He loves it here and will give the blue a hometown discount.
Posted by: SaMo | December 02, 2008 at 11:48 AM
Sign Furcal and sign Manny anyway you can. The rest will fall into place. Without a true lead-off hitter or a big bat, the Dodgers will never win another playoff game. 2-1 losses? More like 2-0. You might even convince Lowe to stay. Who can blame him for leaving after the run support he has seen over the past couple years.
Posted by: LLCoolL | December 02, 2008 at 01:24 PM
Ptiching wasn't the problem last year, offense was. To that end, Manny needs to be brought back. If need be, the Dodgers pitching staff can go into next season as is, and that would include losing Beimel, Lowe, Penny, and probably Saito. Fill them with Elbert, MacDonald, Schmidt, and Broxton being set up by Wade.
Where is Orlando Hudson on the radar? Why settle for Durham when Hudson can take the job for 4+ years? How about DeWitt? This team doesn't need Ray Durham. SaMo raises a great option if Glaus is available for a small asking price. This gives DeWitt the second base job. As for shortstop, Hu is not the answer. He definitely regressed last year and from what I saw in Vegas, he'll never be more than a .230 hitter with limited power. Izturis is available as a stop gap unit DeJesus is ready. I don't think Abreu can be counted on for any more than utility until it is proven he can stay healthy.
Posted by: dalegribel | December 02, 2008 at 03:00 PM
I don't have Sheehan's article in front of me, so I will probably forget some of his points. But from those I remember, I am simply not impressed.
1. Rickie Weeks in center field doesn't fulfill the need for a bat. His is weak, and his defense at both second and the outfield is questionable. Bad idea.
2. Saito is highly questionable, and I wouldn't count on him for very much. Maybe he could surprise, but I doubt it. And even if he came back strong early in the year, I seriously doubt if he would have the durability to last the entire season.
3. Putting Kuo in the rotation and McDonald in the bullpen is backwards. Kuo is much more effective in short stints where he can overpower hitters. Besides, he's much too fragile to be able to withstand the workload of a starter. McDonald is probably best suited to be in the rotation, although I believe he could be effective out of the pen if the Dodgers acquired two other proven veteran starters.
4. Acquiring the 37 year old Ray Durham would be insane, and even worse if for two years. And the last thing we need is the Dodgers throwing away $8 million over two years. They already gave up a premium catching prospect in Carlos Santana to avoid paying Casey Blake $2 million. If Durham turned out to be a dud (very likely), there's no telling what the Dodgers might do to avoid eating any part of his contract (like including a top prospect in a deal that moved his contract elsewhere). I'm afraid that Durham would be Jeff Kent, just without the attitude.
5. Acquiring Valentin as a backup catcher is probably a bad idea. The moderate power he showed in Cincinnati was probably the result of playing in a bandbox. Also, A.J. Ellis had a nice year in 2008 at LV, hitting over .300 with an OBP over .400. I also believe he threw out about 43% of baserunners. Instead of bringing in another questionable veteran backup catcher, why not give the job to Ellis, who at the very least can probably handle the job defensively, and shows some promise with the bat. No more risk, I think, than signing another mediocre veteran backup.
6. Assuming that they do not acquire a power bat for the outfield via free agency, then gambling that Jones will bounce back might well be worth the risk. Reports are that Jones is working hard, and perhaps will report to camp in the best shape of this life. Certainly he should have the motivation, since this is his walk year. And just maybe, the knee that caused him so much trouble last year, may well be the root cause of his subpar performances in each of the past two years.
7. Absent the acquisition of a second baseman via free agency (Orlando Hudson) or a trade, I have no problem with giving Tony Abreu a shot to re-establish himself. Reports indicate that he is healthy again, and is scheduled to play winter ball in the Dominican Republic. Prior to his getting hurt with the Dodgers, Abreu did not have an injury history. I remember Abreu coming off an injury in 2007, and making a great off balance, twisting play on a ball hit up the middle, and finding himself out again. He probably wasn't fully recovered from his first injury, and that play more than likely aggravated it. Furthermore, if anything, I think Abreu is Jayson Werth all over again; another example of a mis-diagnosis by the Dodgers medical staff. For those who remember, Werth finally took it upon himself to go to the Mayo Clinic, where his wrist injury was finally correctly diagnosed, and properly treated. And we've seen the results. Abreu had surgery following 2007, and a tear was discovered and repaired in his abdomen. When he continued to have groin pain, he was re-examined, and it was determined that he had a hip labrum tear. I'm guessing that the re-occurrence of the groin pain was directly related to the labrum tear, which he probably had from the very beginning. So I don't believe that Abreu's problems were the result of separate injuries, but were, in fact, the result of a single injury that was not initially treated properly.
When he played, Abreu looked solid defensively at both second and third, showing good range and a very strong arm. He also hit well. There are questions that remain, but he could actually turn out to be the best choice at 2B. If the Dodgers aren't going to spend money, then they might as well play him instead of any number of questionable veterans. Although there are risks either way, at least in the case of Abreu there is real potential upside.
8. If the Dodgers choose to obtain a veteran such a Renteria or Cabrera to play shortstop for next couple of years, I'm all for it. Signing Furcal to a long term deal, I believe, would be a mistake. Furcal has been a good player for a long time, but has never been the player we saw early last year. He's a .286 lifetime hitter, OK defensively, but prone to too many throwing errors. Besides, he hasn't been healthy in either of the last two years, and although not old, he is moving up in age. I saw a little of De Jesus in spring training a couple of years ago, and liked what I saw. Although he might be able to make the transition from AA to the big leagues, he more than likely would benefit from a full year at AAA. Hu definitely has the glove, and from what I've seen, I believe his bat is a lot better than what we saw last year. And looking a little further into the future, the Dodgers have another good prospect, Devaris Gordon (Tom Gordon's son), who is probably 2-3 years away.
Posted by: Brooklyn Dodger | December 02, 2008 at 06:36 PM
Brooklyn I like your discussion on abreu, lets hope he and dewitt can be a nice young infield. I am still concerned about the SS position though, is dejesus really going to be ready in a year or two?
Durhman at and the other SS options out there suck. I can't figure out why Flanders can't spend 2 million of blake's salary but goes out and wants to waste 16 mil on a subpar aging 2B. That is just plain scary they will waste $ on aging bad free agents, but wont pick up a tab for 2 million...
Posted by: poppinfresh | December 03, 2008 at 08:38 AM
I'm a big fan of BP, and Sheehan. But I can not fathom the bulk of what he suggested. To think this team can compete, especially offensively, at the same level it did the last two months plus of 2008, next season, without a big bopper like Manny in the middle of the lineup, is absolutely asinine. There are three of his suggestions that have some merit that I like. One, I agree re-signing Derek Lowe is imperative, but keep in mind, he insinuated prior to 2008 that he felt he wasn't wanted in L.A. during his first three years of the four of his just expire contract. Two, release Andruw Jones. I, too, was ecstatic when the Dodgers signed him last winter, especially considering it was a very short-term deal, but admit now, in hindsight, it was the worst move imaginable. Andruw has NO business being on this team, what-so-ever! Three, I like the idea of Ray Durham, if nothing else, although I would prefer Orlando Hudson because of his age. But everything else suggested by Sheehan just doesn't make any sense. Hu starting at short in his lineup? I don't buy it. I, too, am also not sold on Ivan DeJesus's ability to hit with power and play shortstop effectively. Rickie Weeks in CF? As BK said, his VORP was LOWER than Jeff Kent's last season. No Manny? Good riddance. Sheehan of all people should know Manny is a rarity offensively, even at his age, and he should know that his offense should more than make up for any defensive deficiencies he may have.
Posted by: dodgrdog88 | December 03, 2008 at 10:24 AM
SaMo, BD,
Liked Sheehan's idea of signing Saito DURHAM until SaMo pointed out, "why not sign Nomar"?. Completely agree, the Dodgers need to bring Nomar back before signing a player like Durham. Nomar has been a solid Dodger since he came here... a little injury prone but if can get at discount, well worth the chance.
Again, Saito a no-brainer. And I like BD's list also. Somewhat mix feelings about Furcal / Cabrera / Renteria though. BD makes great points regarding Furcal but as a fan, I really want that guy on my team and if there ever was a player to take a chance on, it would be Furcal.
Taking a chance on AJ is another thing I agree with. I liked the acquisition last year and still hope for the best.
Posted by: Rob | December 03, 2008 at 02:59 PM
I think the Dodgers have already decided to pass on Manny. If they did sign him, between him, AJ and Pierre, they will have committed almost $60 Million just to left field.
Forget Lowe, he's gone. He wants out and he'll get the money somewhere else.
Take a serious run at CC. Six years for $125M might get it done.
Randy Johnson.
Orlando Hudson at 2B. Has some power that would make up a little for Dewitt at 3B who doesn't have corner infield power. If Colletti can't get him, maybe trade McDonald and Hu to Texas for Hank Blalock at 3B and keep Dewitt at 2B.
Try to get a 1 year deal from Pettitte/Smoltz/Wolf.
Give Furcal his 4 year deal. If DeJesus comes along quicker Furcal can always be unloaded. SS with OBP are always in demand. Renteria and Cabrera are basically the same age and you'd have to sign them to the same length of deal as Furcal, only both of them are already seriously in decline.
Resign Saito 1 year $750,000 with incentives. No brainer. Maybe not a closer but a lot of teams are going to be signing players with less ability for more money for longer terms. And everybody likes him.
Gregg Zaun 1 year deal.
Maybe you get something out of Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, and Jason Schmidt, maybe you don't. But the Dodgers are paying for them whether they keep them on the roster, trade them, or release them. Give them a chance to earn.
Posted by: Brad | December 03, 2008 at 06:05 PM
Cabrera is a year older than Renteria, has less power, and less range. Either one works for me, rather than giving four years to injury-prone Furcal. But I'll take Renteria if I have a choice.
Posted by: SaMo | December 03, 2008 at 06:45 PM
The Kate Chopin reference complete with sparknotes link made my night. Bravo.
Posted by: monkey mike | December 03, 2008 at 09:10 PM
Neither one of them can hit lead or steal a base. Their OBP is deadly. How many 7 and 8 hitters do we need on this team?
Posted by: Brad | December 03, 2008 at 09:46 PM
If you like decent fielding/no hit SS, why not Alex Cintron for 1/10 the money. He can hit in the 8 hole as well as those other guys.
Posted by: Brad | December 03, 2008 at 09:50 PM
I dont agree much to what Sheehan's plans. The only things I agree with are trying to resign Saito for a spot in the bullpen, even if he cant close he is a vet of both japanese ball and the mlb and can tutor the young guys on the team. I think the Dodgers need to go hard after Casey Blake, try to resign Manny and offer him a sweeter deal like 2 yrs @ 30 mil with a option for a 3rd at 25-30 mil making him the highest salary per/ year player in the history with him off the roster by the time he is 40. Also resign Nomar cause he could play all the infield positions as a utility player and start as a possible platoon player with Tony Abreu until he gets more experience if we cant get a 3rd basemen moving DeWitt to 3rd. Possibly bring back Beimel cause he is an effective guy and left handed. Try to persuade Maddox to come back for one more year to be a player/ coach for all the young pitchers and to fill in as a 5th starter if need be. I would try to sign Randy Johnson and Andy Petitte to a 1yr deal with an option for a 2nd year and possibly another outfielder if we cant get Manny back like (B. Abreu, A. Dunn, M. Bradley, yes the same one that pissed off Jeff Kent he is only 30 years old and hit over .300 with 22 homers and 77 rbi's, and P. Burrell) everyone has their weaknesses but all can produce also. I also like one of the other poster's comments about just living with Jones for the last year of his contract because you never know what is gonna happen on a players walk year and it could of all just been his knee injury causing the overcompensation and ugly performance the last two years. Pierre is another issue cause if you can't get Furcal he could lead off but then that weakens the outfield power but improves the front of the lineup and if you get rid of him and dont have Furcal who is to fill in an cause havoc on the basepaths. I also would not go after a back up catcher cause D. Ardion and A.J. Ellis did a good job and could fill the role with out costing us more money. I honestly would try to possibly trade for J.J. Hardy from the Brewers he is 26 yrs old has averaged roughly a .270 avg, with 21 hrs, and 73 rbis in 3+ seasons in the bigs. The only thing he doesn't do is steal bases and even if we do re-sign Furcal he could be a possiblity to go after if we don't get C. Blake and move DeWitt back to 3rd and move Furcal or Hardy to 2nd and would keep the infield still young and allow development to DeJesus, Gordon and others still in the minors. Also there were times during last season and then even recently where he was available by the Brewers. I would also see what Schmidt still has left and bring up McDonald, Stults, Elbert and the rest of the young guns that came up last year to fill in the rest of the rotation and bullpen and go from there to spend the rest of the free money the team has from last years salary.
Posted by: Geoff | December 04, 2008 at 02:08 AM