Crickets
Scott Boras says Manny will be signed by someone before spring training. Good to know ... but I was sort of working under that assumption anyway. The continuing Manny Watch! is especially interesting in light of Buster Olney's column this morning on ESPN.com regarding Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu, two big names that could be forced to take one-year deals. If those guys are reduced to a single season, there's absolutely no chance a team will give Manny a four-plus-option. The door is wide open, and if a team was willing to step through, it would have happened by now.
I'm very much looking forward to how Boras spins things when Manny eventually signs. It seems we both misread the market coming into Hot Stove season, except he's a SuperAgent! and I write a blog.
Meanwhile, if you're looking for a fun way to get a jump on the '09 season, I recommend hitting DodgerSims. Cool fun with projections.
BK
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At this moment with the Manny/Boras fiasco, Boras has made several mistakes with this clients at judging the market! With all the mistakes he has made, Manny is really his last big client and he has to make it up. Its no surprise that Boras has come out again and said "the market for Manny is heating up"? It's funny that no other Hot Stove columnist has posted anything about other teams getting in with Manny. I think Boras would like Manny to be the last high praise player in the FA field, so teams with last resort options would be willing to pay the money he is looking for? But, this can backfire as well, Abreu and Dunn will have to come down on their prices and it will have an effect on Manny? If Abreu and Dunn had Boras as an agent, I think this would have been different? We'll see what happens again?
Posted by: Matsuda | January 28, 2009 at 10:44 AM
The value that could be realized with Adam Dunn right now is ridiculous. Meanwhile, I applaud Ned for not giving into Boras' losing hand. It's so rare to see Flanders do something correctly that we have to appreciate this moment. The Dodgers are the lone pillar upholding the Manny-market at the moment, and since they have the most to lose in not signing him, they'll be given the last chance to beat any other offer that comes in. It seems pretty clear to me that the only holdup here is Boras and his idiotic pride. Blame where blame is due, people. The Dodgers have already made an above-market offer, and until another team comes in with something better, it's Boras' move, not Ned's.
And lastly, as I mentioned on the other thread, it also seems pretty clear to me that Manny's best move in this lowpoint free agent market is to maximize his short-term income (getting the most he can for one or two years), show everyone that he can be happy as a one-eyed jack at a clambake for the next two years, then re-hit the FA market in two years when the economy is better and his value isn't weighted down by all the negative "manny being manny" nonsense. If his goal is to earn as much as he can with his remaining playing years, it is obvious that his best move right now is to take the highest-money, short-term option available. I will be shocked if a better 2-year deal comes in for him than the one Ned already offered.
Posted by: VA Blueblood | January 28, 2009 at 10:59 AM
Here's a fair deal for Manny, and Ned should put this on the table with a 48hr acceptance deadline:
*2 guaranteed years for $20M per year.
*Performance based incentives (# of homers, batting average, etc) that can bring the value up to $25M per year.
*3rd year option that automatically vests based on plate appearances in the 2nd year, for $15M base with performance based incentives that can bring the value to $30M.
*4th year option that automatically vests based on plate appearances in the 3rd year, with the same terms as the 3rd year option.
*NO no-trade clause.
This offer respects the player, gives him big incentive to play hard, and protects the team if his production declines or he gets hurt. Fair for everyone, good for everyone (except maybe Boras).
Posted by: Valmont | January 28, 2009 at 03:01 PM
I will have to disagree with the assessment in the second paragraph. He's just an agent and you guys write a SuperBlog!
The less I read/hear about Scott Boras and TJ Simers the better.
I've back signing Manny since the end of the season and continue to do so, but right now I'm just as anxious to see what the Dodgers are going to do about a starting pitcher. How sick has it become that Randy Wolf is looking good.
Posted by: dalegribel | January 28, 2009 at 04:21 PM
BorAss is a curse. The guy is a piece of work. Worried about LA starting pitching in regards to how it affects Manny? How about checking the moon cycles while he's at it...
Posted by: Andy B | January 28, 2009 at 05:29 PM
I didn't misread the market for Manny, I said all along he wasn't going to get anywhere near the money he was asking for. I said the Dodger's first offer was too generous and I took a fair amount of abuse on the blogs for saying so. Now it looks like I was right. I don't have any special insight, but it was easy to see that few teams could afford him. Of those teams that could, some just didn't want him and others had no room for him. It would not be smart for NL teams to offer much more than 2 years for him. So after considering all of this it seemed fairly apparent to me that only the Dodgers would be truly interested in Manny and only for a short contract. Actually, I am surprised that people are still talking about Manny getting a short-term contract at more than $20M/year. Given the contracts that other free agents are getting, why would anyone consider Manny at that price? If I was Colletti I'd give the guy $18M/year tops, if he doesn't like that then I hear Japan is nice in the spring. Perhaps he can get a job there.
Posted by: HardHittin25 | January 28, 2009 at 06:25 PM
When manny signs somewhere else all u geeks will be crying, he is not dunn or abreu, hes manny ramirez! I think he feels disrespect by the dodgers after all he did for them, so he will probably sign for less, but not with the dodgers!!
Posted by: KingMayan! | January 28, 2009 at 08:35 PM
KingMayan--if being "disrespected" by a fair market offer is his reason for leaving, then I don't want a prima dona player like that on our team in the first place.
Posted by: VA Blueblood | January 29, 2009 at 10:40 AM
Mayan - If a player is worth "what the market will bear" as the players and their agents like to say when the market is good, then shouldn't players be expected to take less when the market collapses and be professional about it? Seems to me like Manny's market ain't bearing nothin'. What makes Manny think that he isn't subject to the same market dynamics that everyone else is? Sure CC and Tex got a lot of money this offseason, but the demand was high for their services. I don't see a lot of demand for a player Manny's age who can't play defense. Short term, sure, the guy is a great hitter. But he won't be for much longer and he certainly can't play in the NL for very long.
Posted by: HardHittin25 | January 29, 2009 at 04:22 PM
Offer 60 mil for 3 yrs. Give them a 48 hour deadline and let's move on with this thing. 3 yrs is what Manny seems to be waiting for and he'll get it from somebody that becomes desperate during Spring Training so reduce the yearly salary to his Boston option years level and add 1 year. The years and amount are fair and Manny probably won't want to take the risk of sweating it out anymore. Manny, the Dodgers, and us fans will all be happy.
Posted by: kwony | January 30, 2009 at 02:00 PM